Hockey is a uniquely cruel sport in its variance. Of the four major North American sports, it is far and away the least removed from process-based outcomes. With an 82-game marathon regular season, good process often wins out in the long run. But with short playoff series preventing small sample sizes, it’s borderline impossible to wait out regressing to the mean.
For the Philadelphia Flyers who sit in 6th place of the Metropolitan Division after Thursday night’s overtime win against the New York Rangers, the stretch run doesn’t have a traditional goal. While Travis Konecny is eager to return to postseason play, the Flyers current point pace of 89 leaves them 10 points or so back of the last wild card spot.
That means for all intents and purposes, the Flyers should be looking at this final 24 game window as a launching pad for next year. In evaluating the Flyers this year, the team’s woes are pretty straight forward, the team’s 166 goals are 23rd in the NHL, and the 182 goals conceded is 20th. This is a slightly below average team, peeling back those results presents an interesting question: are the Flyers getting the most out of the players it’s dressing?
While hockey is the highest variance sport, sometimes it just isn’t a given player’s year. There are all types of environmental factors that can influence production where even if the process is good, the puck still doesn’t go into the back of the net. In understanding the Flyers’ challenges this year, there are a few indicator tests that can serve as a litmus test.
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