The Flyers will enter the game Monday night at home against Carolina with a chance to do something they haven’t done the previous five seasons: make the playoffs.
A win of any kind will put Philadelphia safely into the third seed in the Metropolitan Division. And thus getting them ready for the Battle of Pennsylvania against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the opening round. It’s almost miraculous they find themselves here. But here they are. At home Monday night against Carolina with a chance to get in!
Who is still alive in the playoff race?
Heading into Sunday’s schedule there were four teams still in the running for the third seed in the Metropolitan Division. Two of them (Washington and the Islanders) would’ve been eliminated with a regulation loss. Washington defeated Pittsburgh 3-0, so they are still alive with 93 points with one game remaining. As well, Columbus is also still alive, but their hopes took a huge dagger when they lost in regulation to Boston 3-2, so they remain at 92 points. Meanwhile, Montreal did the Flyers a favor when they defeated the Islanders 4-1, eliminating New York from any playoff dream.
So, that leaves the Flyers still well in the driver’s seat and with their magic number whittled down to two. A win Monday night — whether in regulation, overtime, or via shootout — puts the Flyers with 96 points. That would put them four points ahead of Columbus and three ahead of Washington, thus giving them the third seed in the Metropolitan. If they don’t win Monday night, the same situation will hold true against Montreal in the season finale. A third option would be to earn a loser point in both games, giving them 96 but doing it in a nerve-wracking, heart-stopping manner.
A fourth option would usually be possible, and that would be seeing both teams behind the Flyers lose in regulation to their opponent. The fly in the ointment is that Washington and Columbus play each other in their final game. So one of those two teams will earn two points. If Philadelphia earned one point Monday night, it would eliminate Columbus. Columbus then could play the spoiler on Tuesday and take care of Washington for the Flyers. But that’s a road nobody really wants to travel down. Philadelphia controls their fate so it’s in their hands.
The odds are in Philadelphia’s favor
According to the various sites who look at the odds and percentages, generally across the board they look favorably towards the Flyers and a playoff spot. According to HockeyStats, Philadelphia has an 82 per cent chance of the playoffs whereas Washington is now at 13 per cent and Columbus is at just five per cent. Meanwhile, HockeyViz puts that number in a similar ballpark. Prior to Sunday’s games, the site had the Flyers at 63 per cent. However, the regulation loss to Boston by the Blue Jackets was a 14 per cent swing in Philadelphia’s favor, pushing the number up to 77 per cent.
Will Philadelphia’s opponents have anything to play for?
On Monday, Carolina will face the Flyers and have locked up the Metropolitan Division. However, they could be wishing to have home-ice advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs. Carolina has 110 points through 80 games and sit four points ahead of Buffalo who also have played 80 games. So one point by the Canes would be enough to lock up that perk throughout the first three rounds. They can’t catch Colorado for the overall lead so they’ll have to be satisfied with home ice through the Conference Finals.
Having said all that, Carolina has scratched more than a handful of star players this weekend, so the Canes might believe the risk of seeing key players injured heading into the first round to gain an advantage for a possible third-round series is too great to take. So let the players get their rest now. If that’s the case, it could help the Flyers Monday night, despite Philadelphia not having a great record against Carolina in recent years at home.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s opponent Tuesday is Montreal. Montreal can clinch the second seed in the Atlantic should Tampa Bay lose Monday night against Detroit. But if Tampa wins, then both the Lightning and the Canadiens are tied with 106 points. So Montreal could be playing for home-ice advantage in the first round over Tampa, thus wanting to win the game Tuesday night against the Flyers. However, should Detroit win, it’s possible the Canadiens would sit a few of the star players to give them a rest before the playoffs begin this coming weekend.
That’s not to say a club missing some of their stars can’t win any game at any time, but if positions are locked in after Monday’s slate, it could help the Flyers heading into Tuesday if they are still seeking those two points.
However, after saying all that, and all the percentages and permutations measured, it’s very simple. The Flyers gain two of a possible four points available Monday and Tuesday evenings and they are in the playoffs.
