x

Already member? Login first!

Comments / New

Flyers’ Leo Carlsson offer sheet was their Hail Mary this offseason

Photo via Philadelphia Flyers PR

It’s hard to acquire elite talent in the NHL, especially so at the center position. We’ve seen the Flyers come up a little short in recent days trying their hand: Zach Werenski, Darnell Nurse, Mavrik Bourque, and John Carlson all might have slipped through their fingers. There’s a good explanation for each of them, but when all else failed, the Flyers broke the unwritten rules with a massive front-loaded offer sheet.

Leo Carlsson’s offer sheet is a statement

The Flyers are trying several of the usual beaten avenues to improve the roster. Noel Acciari through free agency is an improvement for the fourth line, the trade for Joseph Woll shores up the goaltending, and the drafting of centers over the last couple of years has been an organizational attempt to strengthen that position for years to come.

Frustratingly enough, none of these address the lack of high-end elite talent. It was always going to be interesting to see just how the Flyers took care of this without a full roster demolition and rebuild. Suddenly, we got our answer: if you’re not going to draft in the top five, let someone else do it for you.

The offer sheet is a bit of a forbidden art. There’s a chance Danny Briere is seen more unfavorably by other managers today than he was 24 hours ago, but things are changing quickly around the league. It was reported that the Flyers weren’t alone here. In fact, three other teams offered Leo Carlsson a contract, and the young star center chose Philadelphia above the rest. It may not even be the only offer sheet signed by an Anaheim Duck today– defenseman Pavel Mintyukov is rumored to have received a formal offer— and the New Jersey Devils have sent Utah RFA Barrett Hayton a much smaller (and perhaps pettier) one after their trade talks broke down.

Before yesterday, there were just four offer sheets signed since Ryan O’Reilly in 2013. The previous three have not been matched: Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg signed with St. Louis, while Jesperi Kotkaniemi moved to Carolina in 2021. Kotkaniemi’s in particular was interesting as it could have been in response to Montreal’s fairly tame offer to Sebastian Aho two years prior, which was matched. To reach Carlsson’s yearly salary on this deal, you’d have to combine the entire total values of all three. With Shea Weber’s deal in 2012, the Flyers have signed over $200 million in just two offer sheets– when they mean business, they really mean business.

As the league continues to evolve, we could see more and more of these deals done. Even so, this is breaking new ground for the NHL; this is the only offer in the history of the league to invoke the highest tier of compensation with the four first round picks.

An offer of this size is a statement that says the Flyers are not pulling punches in regards to building a contender. The cost of such an agreement– the next four years of Philadelphia’s first-round draft picks– is significant to a team on the playoff bubble. Clearly, the Flyers see Carlsson as a piece that would boost their odds at making a run in the immediate future, and at just 21 years old, the timeline is not an issue. Should he make it to Philadelphia, the Flyers would have a franchise talent down the middle to grow with their highly-drafted wingers.

The Flyers rebuild has allowed them to do this

Briere’s stockpiling of picks and assets has given him the luxury to make big moves like this. Between their young depth at forward, good prospects in the goaltending pipeline, and favorable salary cap situation, the Flyers can do almost whatever they want to get a player they need. Briere has made it clear that they’re waiting for an opportunity like this to arise, and he’s likely had Carlsson in his sights ever since Ducks’ GM Pat Verbeek publicly stated that they wouldn’t be negotiating until the summer.

This is exactly that opportunity, and while Anaheim will almost certainly match the deal, it’s very encouraging to see that such a nuclear option isn’t a bridge too far for Briere’s front office. An offer sheet costs them zero roster players or prospects. If the cost for Leo Carlsson is Comcast’s money and four Maxim Sokolovskii-level draft picks, the Flyers would take that ten out of ten times. It’s a last resort, but it’s such an interesting way to acquire the elite center they badly need as opposed to giving up the amount of assets the Minnesota Wild did for Quinn Hughes last season with no guarantee that he’d stick around.

The part of signing a big free agent that could temper excitement is typically the back end of the deals that leak into a player’s mid to late thirties. With RFA players, that isn’t the case. At the end of the contract, Carlsson will be in his twenties still, squarely in his prime, and due for another extension– this time, he walks right to UFA status. Anaheim will have a very expensive decision to make in the next seven days, even now having to factor in his next contract in their plans to retain him long term. It’s an annoying contract for the Ducks to match.

Should Anaheim match, it would turn all eyes to Chicago’s Connor Bedard and some of the San Jose Sharks young core that will be due new deals in the coming off-seasons. It would be surprising at this stage if the Flyers weren’t already eyeing up their next target if they aren’t able to ultimately land Carlsson. That being said, Philadelphia is going to have to take care of Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone before this happens the other way. The door has been opened, and the RFA landscape looks a little different now.

If you enjoyed this article please consider supporting Broad Street Hockey by subscribing here, or purchasing our merch here.

P.S. Don’t forget to check out our podcast feed!


Looking for an easy way to support BSH? Use our Affiliate Link when shopping hockey merch!

Talking Points