It has come to this. Painful irony. The Philadelphia Flyers are now hoping and praying that the player that scorned them a couple of years ago, spinning them completely off of a solid rebuilding path with a couple of cornerstone prospects, is going to do something that would in turn help the Flyers land one of the finishing touches on their team and could potentially turn them into a Stanley Cup contender.
Cutter Gauthier is someone who almost every single Flyers fan has a passionate hatred of. Their fifth-overall pick in 2022, he was seen as a very late riser in that draft and Philadelphia took that chance that he could become something more special than we were able to see during his time at the U.S. National Team Development Program in his draft year. The Flyers took the leap to grab him and it really paid off. He had a great freshman year at Boston College with 16 goals and 37 points in 32 games. He was on the right track once he rounded out his game further.
The only problem was that he wanted to turn pro after his freshman year. Former Flyers general manager Chuck Fletcher ran into salary cap problems that prevented that from happening and from Gauthier burning a year of his entry-level contract at the end of the 2022-23 season. He went back to school but was so scorned by not getting his contract that he wanted out. He ceased communications and refused meetings with the front office, even though it turned over to the current Flyers regime led by Danny Briere, and just wanted out and would not sign in Philadelphia. And therefore, got sent to the Anaheim Ducks where he is unfortunately thriving.
That’s the gist of the story. A top prospect forced his way out because he didn’t get to leave school earlier than expected.
Now fast forward to present day and the Flyers just sent an offer sheet to the best player on his team in 21-year-old star center Leo Carlsson and are trying to steal him away from Anaheim with a historic contract. And for it to happen — for the Flyers to get Carlsson and get their first bona fide No. 1 center in over a decade — Gauthier has to ask for a whole lot of money from the Ducks as a restricted free agent.
Flyers need Gauthier to want the world
This is how the situation is right now. Cutter Gauthier is a restricted free agent, but is not eligible for an offer sheet because he managed to finish his 2023-24 season with the Ducks and not play enough games for it to register as a completed season on a contract. He’s the only player left unsigned by the Ducks. If he’s under contract, they can technically fill out an NHL roster.
If the Ducks match the Leo Carlsson offer sheet — accept that that will be his contract and refuse the compensation of four unprotected first-round picks from the Flyers — they are going to be pinching every penny.
With Carlsson’s historic $18-million AAv, making him the highest paid player in the NHL, and young fellow restricted free agent Pavel Mintyukov signing his five-year contract with a $7.2-million AAV over the weekend, the Ducks currently have roughly $9.97 million in cap space, according to PuckPedia. That’s with 12 forwards, six defensemen, and three goaltenders and Gauthier unsigned.
While in previous years, getting a 22-year-old RFA winger signed to a deal while you’re approaching the salary cap ceiling would mean just a simple little bridge deal at a moderate number, we’re living in a whole new world now. While it is understandable that Carlsson’s cap hit had to reach the monumental $18 million for the offer sheet to happen, there is no way that Gauthier should think of himself as half the player that his teammate is and sign for a simple $9-million AAV contract that would fit all snug and cozy under the cap ceiling.
That is, at least, what the Flyers want him to think.
Gauthier can be “a good teammate” and sign for a short-term contract around $9 million so that the Ducks can keep Carlsson. That feels like something that would happen on another team. But now we need this former prospect of the Fleyrs to want everything. To want and want and want what is rightfully his as soon as possible — it’s familiar story.
The 22-year-old just finished his second season in the NHL and scored 41 goals and 69 points in 76 games, leading his team in both categories. There were times throughout the season that Gauthier was clearly the better player than Carlsson, or at least a much better producer and a goalscorer. And goals are expensive.
For him to take a haircut right now sets the wrong tone for future negotiations and that’s probably the last thing he wants. Gauthier could very well win multiple Rocket Richard trophies in his future as the NHL’s top goalscorer if he’s already hitting 40 at 22 years old. There’s no reason to be soft in contract demands right now.
Even before the earth-shattering Carlsson contract, Gauthier was projected to sign an eight-year contract that had around a $9.67 million AAV, according to Evolving-Hockey’s contract projections. Even without the threat of an offer sheet ballooning his number — like what we saw happen to Mintyukov’s inflated cap hit — Gauthier should get so much more than that.
We are now living in some weird twisted world where we are all cheering on Gauthier to think so highly of himself — the reason why he eventually abandoned the Flyers and Philadelphia — where he wants a contract that is closer to Carlsson’s than what he is projected to get.
On our hands and knees, we are begging this guy who we were all booing and calling names for quitting on this team we love, to plant his foot in the ground and stay firm in his demands even if it might mean his team’s cornerstone center going to Philadelphia.
There are other ways to make this work for the Ducks, unfortunately
Maybe what is even more cruel that this twist of fate is the fact that even if Gauthier signs a contract with something around a $13 million AAV, then there are ways the Ducks can still keep him and Carlsson.
Troy Terry is set to miss the beginning of next season after hip surgery. His expected timeline of return is something around November or December, which might just work out perfectly for the Ducks, unfortunately.
By placing Terry on Long-Term Injured Reserve, the Ducks can exceed the salary cap ceiling by the average cap hit in the NHL, which is around $3.97 million, according to PuckPedia. Anaheim can send Terry to LTIR and basically get back the exact number they would need to stay cap compliant. And even if they want to be a shade under, they can send goaltender Laurent Brossoit and his $1.1-million AAV down to the AHL to get a little bit more wiggle room.
And that is still with having an extra forward and an extra defenseman on the roster making close to league minimum. They can unfortunately still make it work if Gauthier gets signed to something around a $13-million AAV.
That is just to start the season though.
Terry will eventually return and if they keep the exact same roster, with Brossoit demoted, they are projected to be over the cap by around $1.95 million — again, in this fake scenario we have created where Gauthier gets a contract with a cap hit of $13 million.
The Ducks can then move to their desperation move of trading a veteran like Frank Vatrano and his $4.571-million AAV to any team that is willing to take him and for whatever they can get for him. If they don’t take any money back, they can then call up a league-minimum replacement and have around $1.74 million in cap space.
That is basically the only path forward for the Ducks to keep everyone in-tact and to keep this roster together. But it does lock them in.
The other potential outcome
We are positive that the Ducks front office went through that whole exercise we just went through several times already, trying to make the specific numbers work so that they can keep everyone around and retain their star center. But to what end?
The goal is to eventually win the Stanley Cup, right? If they lock into this roster, led by Carlsson and Gauthier at the top, and then have to potentially gut some of their veteran scoring depth to make this work financially, they’re certainly not a better team.
This is without touching anyone on their blue line and it is a disaster right now. It’s Jackson LaCombe, an overpaid Pavel Mintyukov, an almost dead Nick Jensen, and then a bunch of unproven young guys that are just fine. They already lost Jacob Trouba, John Carlson, and Radko Gudas in free agency — that would surely make their blue line so much better.
And now they’re going to shed even more veteran help and still hope to make the playoffs without all of that support? The Pacific Division is a pillow fight, we get it, but it’s hard to imagine them being guaranteed anything in the postseason with a hollowed-out roster compared to last season. Young players can grow and improve, but can they drag a bunch of mediocre players to maybe a first-round exit?
That is why the question of “To what end?” should keep on ringing in Ducks GM Pat Verbeek’s ears. They keep Leo Carlsson but then have to be fine with potentially bargain bin hunting for the entirety of his contract and not really being able to take the next step to their end goal of actually competing for a Stanley Cup.
Now, if they take those four first-round picks and turn them into something like a Dylan Larkin, or a couple of other very good top-six players and maybe a defenseman or two with the $18 million in space as well, then that might be a better team with a more clear future.
That is at least the thought process we hope the Ducks are going through right now and come to the conclusion that temporary pain might be better for their future in the end.
Either way, we’re all now hoping for Cutter Gauthier, a player we all do not like, to stand his ground and demand a contract that could mean the Flyers getting so much better and making almost every single Flyers fan who yells obscene things at him on the ice, to be happy. Shakespearean.
