The Philadelphia Flyers just made the biggest move of the NHL offseason. While other teams scramble around in a shallow free agent pool, general manager Danny Briere is going after the best player available that could solve a major issue with the team.
Announced by the team on Friday afternoon, the Flyers have offer sheeted Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson with a staggering contract that could reshape the entire landscape of restricted free agents and move the Flyers a whole lot closer to actually contending for the Stanley Cup. A five-year, $90-million contract that carries an $18-million AAV. It is the highest cap hit in NHL history.
The Ducks now have seven days to make their decision. Either they match the contract and Carlsson stays in Anaheim on that massive contract and the only thing the Flyers got out of that deal is forcing a team out on the West Coast to slightly overpay their rising star center. Or, they decide that that is too large of a contract for them and they let the Flyers have Carlsson.
In exchange, the Ducks would receive the Flyers’ next four first-round picks. They have to belong to the Flyers, so Philadelphia will still have the Maple Leafs’ 2027 first-round pick that they got in exchange for Scott Laughton — but will have no first-round picks of their own for the next four years.
Of note, the five-year contract will buy just one year of Carlsson’s unrestricted free agency, as he was set to hit the open market in the summer of 2030, and this contract will take him through the 2030-31 season.
To just add to the little devilish grin that we all have right now, Chris Johnston also reports that the offer sheet is apparently “heavily front-loaded”; meaning that the actual financial cost of this could be a massive burden on a team, say, in a small market like a suburb of Los Angeles.
And it’s a price well worth paying.
Carlsson is basically everything that you want in a No. 1 center. Drafted second-overall in 2023, the 21-year-old Swede is a 6-foot-3 monster that plays tough minutes while also being dangerous on just about every single shift. His development started slow as he made the NHL at just 18 years old, but has only grown from there.
Just last season, Carlsson scored 29 goals and 67 points in 70 games. The season prior, he scored 20 goals and 45 points in 76 games. And in his rookie season it was 12 goals and 29 points in a lowered-on-purpose-for-development-reasons 55 games. That is some great linear trajectory and there is no doubt in anyone’s mind that Carlsson can become that two-way force who scores 90 points regularly, plays in all situations, and is constantly seen as one of the best centers in the entire world.
The Flyers have needed someone like this ever since Eric Lindros and Danny Briere has decided to go for the jugular, finally using the offer sheet path that has been available to NHL teams the entire time, but now using it perfectly to solve a major problem that has haunted this team for decades. And Carlsson is just about the perfect player to do that.
Leo Carlsson is the perfect solution to the Flyers’ center problem
While the Flyers have kept steady and bob along this development path — drafting decently high in the first round, maybe making the playoffs every so often as they wait for those key prospects to turn into maybe solid NHLers who can help with a good team but never really be that star that they need — Danny Briere has decided to go all-in.
Carlsson isn’t just a player that’s nice to have, he’s someone that an entire team is built around. The 21-year-old center is someone that absolutely no one can say is not good enough to be a No. 1 center on a contender and he’s still so young so the actual final impact that he can make on a team is. You can dream on potential while also determining right now, that he’s worth it.
He is capable of making insane looking plays while also being that solid two-way player that will prevent scoring chances from happening. We’re now just waxing poetic about this player but it’s really the dream acquisition. He’s someone that the Flyers and the entire fan base has been wishing for — to solve their major problem of not having a first-line center (or someone who can become that) while they accumulate this huge surplus of very good wingers.
While we’re already envisioning him on a top line with Porter Martone and Tyson Foerster, being the most annoying and difficult and heavy hockey forward line in the entire NHL, there is always the possibility that Anaheim accepts the contract and decides to match. But can they?
Could the Ducks really match?
As it stands, the Ducks are projected to have approximately $35.1 million in cap space with 11 forwards, five defensemen, and three goalies on their NHL roster. In addition to Carlsson, they also have winger Cutter Gauthier and defensemen Tyson Hinds and Pavel Mintyukov as restricted free agents who need new contracts.
Gauthier is going to cost them a whole lot of money. It’s hard to imagine him not immediately requesting a double-digit cap hit in the millions right out of his entry-level contract this summer. So, let’s just say for argument’s sake that Gauthier comes in and signs a contract around a $10.5-million AAV. And then Mintyukov hasn’t proved to be a top-four regular NHL defensemen, but has a high ceiling. So, let’s say his new contract comes with a cap hit of $5 million on a little bridge deal.
The Ducks could absolutely still match the Carlsson offer sheet if those contracts were signed. They would have over $20 million in cap space left and would just have to accept the offer sheet and know that they’re going to be very close to the cap ceiling.
But the problem with that is top winger Beckett Sennecke is a restricted free agent next summer and while the cap is projected to rise a total of $9.5 million to $113.5 million, putting all of that into that player is certainly a risk. Sennecke could ask for that exact amount and give the Ducks absolutely no room to improve further.
And on top of everything, the Ducks also have no defensemen. Like, no good ones. With Jacob Trouba gone, Olen Zellweger traded, and them not getting Darnell Nurse, we’re looking at a blue line that is full of unproven young players and borderline NHL talent to play alongside Jackson LaCombe. That is an insane risk to make and everyone expected that Anaheim was not done building out their blue line. Those plans have been put on complete hold with this offer sheet.
If they match the offer sheet, they will either have to play extreme hardball with Gauthier and Mintyukov, trying to get them on short-term bridge deals that can hurt them later, or just accept that their defensemen are going to not be very good next season.
There’s certainly a possibility of anything.
