Coming off a huge shootout victory in Toronto, the Flyers have just one game remaining before the NHL’s trade deadline. They currently sit sixth in the Metropolitan Division and are just four points back of the Boston Bruins for the final wild card spot. On the surface, that feels significant. But it sounds closer than they really are, and this recent run should not make them shy away from focusing on the long-term picture.
Back in the hunt
It’s a unique trade deadline, with teams having only a handful of games in the lead-up following two weeks off for the Olympics. For the Flyers, it has gone about as well as they could have hoped for their postseason chances. After dropping their first game back to Washington, they have won three straight, including a massive regulation win over the main team that they are chasing in Boston.
The players obviously want to make the playoffs. That is a given. There seems to be genuine internal belief, as you would expect, with Dan Vladar saying the team is “on a mission” following their most recent win over Toronto. That mission, of course, is a playoff berth. And to their credit, they’ve pushed themselves back into the conversation. Being just four points back seems doable. Four points is a small number, but it’s a tougher road than that number suggests.
The teams atop the Metropolitan division (Carolina, Pittsburgh, and the Islanders) are all on strong runs of their own, making a divisional playoff spot feel almost out of reach. The Flyers would need to make up eight standings points over their final 22 games, while also hoping both Pittsburgh and the Islanders hit extended ruts. A more realistic path is overtaking Boston for the second wild card spot. Even that, however, is complicated. Both the Blue Jackets and the Capitals currently sit between the Flyers and the Bruins, meaning it’s not only the Bruins that the Flyers would need to catch.
Washington and Philadelphia are currently on pace to finish with around 91 standings points, while Boston and Columbus are pacing toward 98 and 94, respectively. Even if Boston falls short of that 98-point mark, it seems likely that it will take at least 95 points to secure the final wild card position. That would require the Flyers to win somewhere close to 60 percent of their remaining games, with a few overtime losses mixed in. Sustaining that kind of pace over a 22-game stretch would be a tall task for this roster. The three-game winning streak has required extra time to beat both the Maple Leafs, who are in free fall, and the Rangers, who appear headed for a bottom-three finish.
That’s not to say they cannot make it, but it would be foolish to change plans based on their recent play.
The effects of trading a big impact player
When it comes to the Flyers, the two big names that have surfaced most often in trade speculation have been Rasmus Ristolainen and, to a lesser degree, Owen Tippett. There will likely be some level of hesitation about moving either player, as both contribute in meaningful ways to winning hockey games. The Flyers experienced the fallout of a move like that when they dealt Sean Walker at the 2024 deadline. The team unraveled down the stretch afterward, something they would probably prefer not to relive. But that experience should not dictate their decision making now.
In early January, the organization showed faith in both the roster and its position in the standings by signing Christian Dvorak to a five-year extension. It was meant to serve as a vote of confidence and, ideally, a spark. Instead, the Flyers went 4-8-4 over the following month, sliding into the position they find themselves trying to dig out of now. The downturn was certainly not caused by the extension, but the morale boost also did nothing to prevent it.
Keeping Ristolainen would not guarantee stability any more than extending Dvorak did. Ristolainen has been playing very well recently, especially Monday night in Toronto, but this recent winning stretch has had more to do with Dan Vladar’s goaltending than anything else. As has been the case pretty much all season, if they do make the playoffs, it will be because of Vladar. If Briere and the Flyers are serious about building a perennial contender, Ristolainen, who turned 31 in October, does not fit that timeline. He has had difficulty staying healthy in recent seasons, and after an impressive showing for Finland at the Olympics, his trade value may never be higher. Holding onto Ristolainen does not meaningfully move the Flyers forward and would likely result in this same debate a year from now.
One new concern is the status of Nick Seeler. He left Monday night’s game against Toronto with a lower-body injury, and if he misses significant time, moving Ristolainen at the same time would send a clear signal to the team that management views the season as effectively over. It would leave the Flyers with just three regular, full-time defensemen and create major holes on the back end. One could argue four, with Emil Andrae, but they clearly don’t view him as an every game defenseman. Now, that doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t move Ristolainen, especially if their asking price is met. However, there are some concerns that it’ll be tough for them to actually get what they want. It’s one thing if they can’t get a first round pick for Ristolainen — the injury concerns have to be real — but they cannot decide to turn down such an offer just to feign competitiveness down the stretch.
The recent win streak is encouraging and has kept the Flyers relevant in the standings. But relevance is not the same as contention. One hot week should not override long-term planning, especially at a deadline that presents an opportunity to capitalize on what might be the best stretch of Ristolainen’s NHL career.
The trade deadline should reflect organizational direction. If they want to build something lasting, they cannot let this current win streak, or an injury, change their minds.
