As we await the Battle of Pennsylvania this weekend, it’s time for another preview of the series with a look at the teams’ defensive cores, and see who has the edge on the defensive side of the ice.
The Top Guys: Erik Karlsson vs. Travis Sanheim
After the 2024-25 season in which everyone kinda thought he was cooked, it turns out Erik Karlsson still has something left in the tank. Karlsson had a massive return to form this season, which was downright shocking for the 35-year-old. Karlsson was good for 15 goals and 51 assists in 76 games, had a +8 on the season, and anchored the Penguins’ top pair with Parker Wotherspoon. It’s easy to forget that Karlsson’s $10 million AAV was on the trade block all offseason and into the start of this year, as the Penguins’ veterans have given them one last big run.
Erik Karlsson is still mistake-prone in the defensive end, but he’s gotten his offense back to a level where a gaffe here-and-there doesn’t matter all that much. Per Natural Stat Trick, with Karlsson on the ice, the Penguins posted a corsi-for percentage (CF%) of 53.9, and an expected-goals percentage (xG%) of 51.9. He’s also the quarterback of one of the best powerplays in the league, picking up 26 power play points on the 7th best unit in hockey. Karlsson’s offensive impact from the blueline is something that no one on the Flyers roster can match, and that’s bound to create problems in a series. Defensively, though? Erik Karlsson remains what he has been throughout his entire career – prone to turnovers and chances against. The trick is getting the puck against the Penguins when Karlsson is on the ice. If you can find a way to hold possession, and drive play when Karlsson is out there, chances are that things get messy for the Penguins defensively.
On the flipside, the Flyers carry a No. 1 defenseman that’s entirely different from what Karlsson brings. Travis Sanheim is the quintessential all-around defenseman in the NHL, minus the fact that he’s not very good at quarterbacking a power play. He’s probably better slotted as a No. 2 defenseman on a Cup contender, but it’s undeniable that Sanheim has become an ultra-reliable core of the Flyers defense. HockeyViz still grades Sanheim as a first-pair caliber defenseman, and he’s taken down an average of almost 25 minutes a night since the Olympics. You’re not going to get the power play points or the high-level offense from Sanheim, but you know exactly what you’re going to get from him on a nightly basis – a reliable puck-moving defenseman that is going to give you high quality minutes without many errors.
The Supporting Cast
At first glance of the rest of the Penguins blueline, you’d probably think this wasn’t a playoff caliber team’s defensive depth. 38-year-old Kris Letang and Sam Girard, who was traded out of Colorado for very little, make up the second-pair. For the majority of the season, it was looking really ugly for Letang and his future. Finally, it looked as if the veteran had fallen off entirely, and the frustrations with Letang’s play were at an all-time high. Bringing in Sam Girard really revitalized Letang this season, and the pair has been performing at solid second-pair level since March 1. From March 1 to the end of the season, Letang-Girard posted a 53.6 xG% and a 47.79 CF% at 5-on-5. Nothing too inspiring, but passable for a second-pair that was a disaster for most of the season because of Letang. In a seven game series, you’d have to wonder if Letang is prone to some breakdowns.
Also, on the other half of the first pair with Karlsson, Parker Wotherspoon is a steadying force for the Penguins. He’s the guy that is tasked with picking up the slack for Karlsson in the defensive zone, and the pair has been above-average in advanced statistics all season long. Wotherspoon himself collected 30 points as well, a career-best and a likely byproduct of playing alongside one of the best offensive defenseman of the past 20 years.
On the Flyers end, the supporting cast of the blueline includes Rasmus Ristolainen, Jamie Drysdale, Cam York, and Nick Seeler. In terms of depth, the Flyers are probably the stronger team if all goes right – but they are still filled with question marks. Will Jamie Drysdale’s strong regular season continue into the playoffs? What does Playoff Risto actually look like? Can the Cam York and Jamie Drysdale second pairing consistently drive play?
Jamie Drysdale is probably the most important piece of the Flyers supporting defensive cast. He’s been so integral to the Flyers breakouts and neutral zone play, and has really rounded out his game this season under Rick Tocchet. If he can continue that, and continue to drive play or break even (51 xG% since Olympics at 5-on-5), Drysdale might be able to make an impact on this series. Ristolainen and Drysdale are on the two power play units (barring any changes), and the Flyers desperately need one of them to make an impact there as well. But, first and foremost, the Flyers need their supporting cast on defense to simplify things at 5-on-5 against one of the best offenses in the league. The Penguins will pounce on turnovers and poor defensive zone exits, so York/Drysdale/Ristolainen are going to need to be on high alert.
Potential breakouts
Ryan Shea is a guy on the Penguins third pair that has had a sneaky good season for Pittsburgh. He’s played alongside Connor Clifton, who was a not-very-good player with Boston for a few years. Together, they’ve registered a 56.3 xG% at 5-on-5 in the second half of the season, a ridiculously strong number for a third pairing. Shea, though, has finally broken out after being drafted in 2015 by Chicago. He’s been up and down to Wilkes-Barre in his three years in the Penguins organization, the No. 7 on the depth chart for a few years, and didn’t look like a guy who was capable of making the next step in his career. Now? Shea is an integral part of the Penguins defense, posting 35 points and grading out at a second-pair level (per HockeyViz). We’ll see if that continues in the playoffs.
For the Flyers, Emil Andrae seems like a candidate for a breakout series or a disaster series. As with much of this Flyers team, Andrae has never been battle tested in the playoffs. Andrae’s strengths of breaking the puck out and moving the puck through all three zones could be really important in this series, against a high-powered Penguins offense that comes at you in waves. Or, Andrae could get physically overwhelmed by playoff intensity forechecking, and be replaced by Noah Juulsen by Game 2 or 3. So, there’s lots of variations with Andrae in this series, and Rick Tocchet might have a quick pull on Andrae if things go south, just as he did in the regular season.
Overall picture
Really, these teams are diametrically opposed in how they try to beat you. The Flyers want to clog everything up through the neutral zone, make life living hell on offenses trying to enter the zone, and focus on shot suppression more than anything. The Penguins, meanwhile, employed one of the best offenses of Sidney Crosby’s career, posting 3.54 goals per game. They also allowed 3.15 goals against, which was 24th in the league. Meanwhile, the Flyers only scored 2.93 goals per game, but allowed only 2.92 goals per game. Since the Olympic Break, the Flyers goals against average is only 2.42, an extremely good mark.
Games 1 and 2 are going to be a pretty good indicator of what style of series we’re going to get. If it’s a more open, back-and-forth style of game, the Flyers are probably not going to be able to keep up with the Penguins offense. If we see a Penguins team that’s struggling to get through Rick Tocchet’s defensive structure, low-scoring games benefit the Flyers a ton in this series. The Flyers have to hope that great defense beats great offense over the next seven games.
