The Flyers got back in the win column on Tuesday with a no-fuss victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets, and today they welcome a struggling Detroit team to try and keep the Win(g)s rolling. The Flyers have had very few ho-hum wins this season, and Tuesday marked the sixth time they won a game in regulation this season–in 29 games, by the way. Some small lineup changes are in order, with Egor Zamula drawing back in for Emil Andrae and Aleksei Kolosov taking over net minding duties.
Meanwhile, in Detroit, the Yzerplan has hit a snag: the whole thing might be a lemon. Sure, young winger Lucas Raymond is over a point per game, Moritz Seider is handling some of the toughest minutes of any defenseman in the league, and they have a solid prospect pool, albeit one without a marquee prospect with Simon Edvinsson now a full-time NHLer. However, they are only one point up in the standings on the the Montreal Canadiens for dead last in the Atlantic Division–which is last place in the entire Eastern Conference. What’s gone wrong? Well, where to start!
First, you have to look at the roster, and you’ll immediately notice there are several over-paid, replacement level players–namely Ben Chiarot, Justin Holl, and Jeff Petry on the backend, and Andrew Copp and JT Compher up front. Those five players combine for a shade over $21 million against the cap, and all of them are contributing below 46-percent of the expected goals; you’re not going to win many games with so much money tied up in players who aren’t contributing anything of value.
Next, you have to look at the most recent off season, where Detroit may have taken the award for Most Baffling Move. For reasons unexplained, Steve Yzerman “Ghost’d” defenseman Jake Walman, sending the remaining two years of his $3.4-million AAV contract and a 2nd-round pick to the San Jose Sharks for…literally nothing. Walman’s now on pace for a career year with 20 points in 26 games played (one away from last year’s personal best 21 points in 63 games), getting regular power play time, and generally being a solid d-man on a rebuilding team on a reasonable contract. Incredible mismanagement of a good player and draft capital by the Red Wings. Then, Detroit lost Shayne Gostisbehere and David Perron to free agency, and replaced them with Erik Gustafsson and Vladimir Tarasenko–both have failed to live up to the expectations set by their predecessors. Behind the skaters, there’s always the question of goaltending; the trio of Ville Husso, Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon aren’t getting it done, and that was before injuries took Talbot and Lyon out of action.
The consequences of all this? An 11-13-4 record, a historically bad penalty kill, a lot of folks calling for Derek Lalonde’s head as the team continues to flounder, and questions about whether Yzerman’s patient rebuild is on the cusp of failing. It’s pretty bleak in Motor City and, with American Thanksgiving long past, the Eastern Conference playoff spots seem relatively set–and Detroit won’t be a part of it unless they go on the heater of all heaters.
That all said, Detroit is coming into tonight’s game after a bananas 6-5 win over the Buffalo Sabres (another stalwart of the Atlantic’s basement) that snapped their five-game losing skid. Last year, the Flyers and Red Wings were neck-and-neck for the final wildcard playoff spot right up to the last game of the season, so anything’s possible over the next few months–but that makes tonight’s two points very important for Philadelphia if they want to strengthen their playoff hopes.
Storylines to Watch
Why, Jamie Drysdale! Hello!
We hear at Broad Street Hockey have a love/hate relationship with small sample sizes: we love when they make our favorite players look better than they are, and hate when reality crushes our dreams.
That brings us to Jamie Drysdale. In his two games since returning from injury, at five-on-five, he’s averaged a 59.85 Corsi-for percentage and a whopping 81.79 expected Goals-for percentage. It’s only two games, but holy smokes! Those are some sterling metrics! One has to imagine that his time off with injury wasn’t spent sitting at home playing video games; surely, he was doing the hockey version of hitting the books. If that’s the case, we might be in for a treat from Drysdale for the remainder of the season, because he’s even passed the eye test in those games–with flying colors, too.
A major factor in Drysdale’s recent success may be the emergence of Emil Andrae: a solid second pair has reduced the pressure on Drysdale and, with easier matchups on the “third” pair with Nick Seeler, Drysdale’s able to do his thing. Once he’s established himself in those minutes, a hop into the top four seems inevitable.
The floundering penalty kill
What was an area of strength for the Flyers last season has become, if not a weakness, at least mediocre. At time of writing, the Flyers are ranked 16th when man down, killing off just under 80-percent of penalties. Granted, that Florida Panthers game last week really did some damage, but the PK’s been underwhelming for a couple weeks now–which is weird, considering the personnel is almost identical to last year’s top-five unit. Maybe it’s just a slump but, for all their faults, the Red Wings have a top ten power play, so the Flyers will have to try and stay disciplined and avoid the box.
Matvei Michkov: Point-per-game player
With his two assists in Columbus, Michkov has 27 points in 27 games. His 20th birthday was Monday, so he doesn’t get to say he’s a point-per-game teenager, but that’s still an impressive total for a rookie. Most betting sites had his over/under for points set somewhere in the high-40s at the start of the season, and he’s well on pace to blow past that total. His underlying metrics at 5-on-5 have steadily increased, too: in Michkov’s last eight games, he’s posted a 56.63 CF% and an astonishing 68.66 xGF%. Those are fantastic numbers for any player, but to see a rookie sustaining that level of dominance is an absolute blast.
Projected Lineups
Philadelphia Flyers
Joel Farabee – Sean Couturier – Travis Konecny
Owen Tippett – Morgan Frost – Matvei Michkov
Tyson Foerster – Noah Cates – Bobby Brink
Scott Laughton – Ryan Poehling – Garnet Hathaway
Cam York – Travis Sanheim
Egor Zamula – Rasmus Ristolainen
Nick Seeler – Jamie Drysdale
Aleksei Kolosov
(Sam Ersson)
Detroit Red Wings
Alex DeBrincat – Dylan Larkin – Lucas Raymond
Michael Rasmussen – Marco Kasper – Patrick Kane
Andrew Copp – JT Compher – Vladimir Tarasenko
Jonatan Berggren – Tyler Motte – Christian Fischer
Simon Edvinsson – Moritz Seider
Ben Chiarot – Jeff Petry
Erik Gustafsson – Justin Holl
Cam Talbot
(Ville Husso)
Gameday Tunes
Every now and then, an artist materializes from the ether, drops a set of bangers, then disappears forever. That’s MOVEMENT–they dropped this one outstanding EP a decade ago, and haven’t really done anything since.
Stats courtesy Natural Stat Trick
