There were more than a few positives which came from the three-game road trip last week. The power play showed signs of life. Denver Barkey had a great game against Colorado — so did Matvei Michkov. Aside from a horrid miscue, they would’ve walked away with all six possible points. But perhaps nothing was more revealing in Vegas, Utah, and Colorado than the play of Sam Ersson.
In the two games which bookended the trek, Ersson had a save percentage over .900. It marked the first time he had hit that magic number so closely in two games since two starts in late November and early December that were over .900.
Granted, the Utah game last Wednesday was a bit of a clunker as he stopped just 22 of 27 shots (.815). Few would’ve noticed had Philadelphia won the game. However, Ersson’s first period against Colorado was a big personal moment for the Swedish netminder, stopping all 17 shots in the first period which was a career high. And kept the Flyers in it until the Flyers struck four times in the third. Simply put, the trio of games had to have put Ersson in a much better frame of mind than at any point this season.
Sam Ersson’s performance has earned him another opportunity with Flyers
So, with Ersson playing rather well — and the team playing well in front of him for the most part — it will be quite interesting to see how Flyers head coach Rick Tocchet deals with the possible return of goaltender Dan Vladar seemingly sooner than later. Vladar left the Jan. 14 game against Buffalo after the first period, looking like he had tweaked something. Immediate speculation was it could be much worse, putting him on the sidelines and most likely the hopes of Philadelphia earning a playoff spot. However, later on, indications suggested it wasn’t quite as dire, and that Vladar should be ready to go in a week or two. Prior to that, Vladar was the head honcho in terms of the Flyers depth chart in goal. With 29 appearances and a record of 16-7-4, Vladar has been one of Philadelphia’s saving graces thus far. As well, he’s had a save percentage over .900 (.905) most of the year.
Should Vladar be removed from injured reserve on Monday in time for the game against the visiting Islanders, it will be his first action in 12 days. The bigger question might be how Tocchet and the coaching staff approach these half-dozen games before the Olympic break. And if there is a right way to go about it. Looking strictly at the stats, it would probably be best if Ersson gets the nod on Monday night regardless of Vladar’s health. Even if Vladar was at 100 per cent, the numbers suggest that Ersson plays extremely well against New York and has their number.
According to Statmuse, he’s actually unbeaten against the Islanders through his career dating back to November 2023 when he earned a shutout against them. His .911 save percentage against them is another asset, especially for a guy who has seen his share of nights with a save percentage around .850 or far, far lower. And for a goalie who has a career 3.05 goals-against average and a 3.36 average this season, seeing Ersson with a 2.47 goals-against average versus the Islanders lifetime should bode well for him getting the start at home, especially after an above-average road trip for him.
So, with one game spoken for, would the Flyers simply decide to alternate Ersson and Vladar the remaining six games before the Olympic break? This would see Ersson getting starts against New York on Monday, Thursday night against the Bruins, and Feb. 3 against Washington. Meanwhile Vladar would see action against Columbus on Wednesday night, Saturday afternoon against the Kings, and the following Thursday (Feb. 5) playing host to Ottawa.
It would seem highly unlikely either goalie gets all six starts, especially considering the back-to-back this week against Columbus and Boston. But by having each goalie splitting the games before the break, it would be easing Vladar back into the swing of things before he heads to the Olympics. And it would certainly be giving Ersson a chance to continue to redeem himself for what’s been a subpar season overall. At least that way it wouldn’t be overloading either goalie, risking a recurring injury to Vladar or running Ersson perhaps a little too much these last six games.
Whose crease is it down the stretch?
Another aspect to consider regarding the tandem is how Vladar handles games down the stretch. If the Flyers remain in playoff contention, it’s quite conceivable Vladar is between the pipes for 18 to 21 of the remaining 26 contests after the Olympics. Considering he’s most likely not Team Czechia’s starter, that should easy the worries of Flyers fans fearing him getting injured in Milano/Cortina. Vladar still won’t be on vacation though, with travel across the Atlantic, various media demands on his time, and the games themselves. Once he comes back and the NHL season begins again, basically Vladar could find himself in a scenario he has really never been in before. Namely, being the starter on a club that is vying for a playoff spot. The goalie should relish the opportunity to shine. The biggest question is that nobody knows how he handles pressure games down the stretch, particularly for a goalie who is nearing the number of starts he had all of last year in just over 50-plus games.
In an ideal world, Vladar has some quality starts before the Olympics and picks up where he left off after the medals have been awarded in Italy. That would also give Ersson time to hone his game between now and Feb. 5, get some rest and downtime for about three weeks, and possibly give Philadelphia far more quality starts down the stretch this season than he delivered in 2023-24. That season saw coach John Tortorella ran him into the ground with no other viable options.
Most onlookers would be over the moon if Ersson was somehow able to have a .900 or higher save percentage in two-thirds of his remaining starts. We know Ersson will get at minimum six starts after the Olympics as the Flyers play six pairs of back-to-back games through the regular season finale at home against Montreal on April 14. If he begins playing better, or his mindset and confidence is vastly higher than it’s been compared to the last few months, then maybe Tocchet has a slightly more difficult choice. Yet, it’s a choice that benefits the team. If both goalies are playing well, chances are the Flyers might be playing well also.
Nobody is suggesting the possible tandem-splitting from now until the Olympic break would continue in late February to the end of the season. It’s an extreme longshot to see Ersson and Vladar with 16 starts each the remaining 32 games. Ersson taking a positive step towards salvaging what has been a primarily trying season would benefit the Flyers. And it should also set the stage for Vladar to rise up to the occasion. Either way, the circumstances haven’t made it as crystal clear as some would like it. Vladar should be good to go, but the Flyers might be a little reluctant to not manage his workload.
Ersson has been good of late, but not rock solid throughout the season. Finding that sweet spot for both goaltenders will be crucial the rest of the way, including the next six games and the gauntlet of games over roughly the remaining six weeks and change. If Tocchet and company can figure that out for the tandem, it will go far towards the Flyers ending up with a playoff spot.
