The Philadelphia Flyers are now in the homestretch. The Olympic break is now two weeks in the rearview mirror, and the Flyers have 69 points with 20 games left to be played. It’s not impossible for them to end up in one of the wild card spots in the Eastern Conference or the third seed in the Metropolitan Division. It is a very daunting task, especially for a club through 62 games have not put together a four-game winning streak. And with a few teams ahead of them regardless of the path that takes them into game eighty-three.
According to The Athletic, the Flyers head into Monday’s game with the Rangers with a nine per cent chance of getting to the playoffs. The Bruins, who currently own the second wildcard spot in the East and have seven more points than the Flyers, stand with a 33 per cent chance of making it. And the Islanders, who are the third seed in the Metro and have eight more points than the Flyers, currently have a 60 per cent chance according to the outlet’s number crunchers.
If there’s any saving grace, it’s that the third Metro seed comes with Philadelphia only needing to leap over Columbus and the Islanders. Needless to say, the Flyers put themselves in this position. They have nobody to blame but themselves. But is there a magic number or winning percentage that could help Philadelphia get there? We’ll take a look at what needs to be done from the Flyers end, and even if they do that, what still might not put them over the hump.
How the schedule affects the Flyers’ playoff odds
Of the last 20 games, half of those are against teams that currently sit out of the playoff picture. However, with teams like Columbus, San Jose, Los Angeles knocking on the door, and even Winnipeg if Connor Hellebuyck plays out of his mind, that 10-game total could be only six. That means 70 per cent of their remaining schedule (14 of 20) is against playoff (or playoff-chasing) opponents.
Not a lot of bottom feeders or cellar dwellers playing out the stretch. As well, half of those games are at home, half on the road. However, given how the Flyers have fared as both the host and visitor, there’s no real advantage with them playing more games home or away. The club has a winning record wherever they play, but there’s no distinct record where they’re red-hot hosting or visiting.
If Philadelphia can look to play .750 over five different four-game segments, then that would give them 30 out of a possible 40 points. They’d have 99 points by year’s end and most likely would have secured one of the wildcard or Metropolitan spots. Essentially, they’d have to win three out of four, or earn a loser point in two games and win two games in each four-game segment. Not to say any of these remaining 20 games should be seen as anything other than must-win.
Nonetheless, possibly the season-deciding stretch is a three-game West Coast trek where Philadelphia plays top Pacific seed Anaheim on March 18, an extremely desperate Los Angeles Kings club the following night, and then a Saturday afternoon affair against San Jose, who, like a lot of teams, are mired in must-win territory. Three victories in California is a big ask at the best of times. Anything less than two out of three wins (or four of six points) and it’s probably game over. Go winless and they’re cooked.
According to the site PlayoffStatus.com, the magic number in the next 20 games or line in the sand is between 12 wins and 13 wins. If the Flyers win 13 of their final 20 games, that would see their percentage of not making the playoffs drop to 25 per cent. As it stands now, they’d have a 37 per cent chance of ending up the third seed in the Metro, and a combined 31 per cent chance of earning one of the two Eastern Conference wildcard spots. Essentially, they’d have a three-in-four chance of getting in. Not a certainty, but a good chance. That’s if they win 13 of their last 20. Thirteen is the key, or a .650 winning percentage.
If the Flyers end up winning only 12 of their final 20, or playing .600 the rest of the way, then that percentage across the board plummets. A 37 per cent chance of the third Metro seed drops to 18 per cent with just 12 wins. And the combined 31 per cent of landing one of the two wildcard spots drops to just a combined 16 per cent. Should Philadelphia win 12 of 20 they have a 65 per cent chance of not making the playoffs. So they have to go essentially .650 the remainder of the schedule. A ridiculous tear of near .700 or .750 and they shouldn’t be fearful of scoreboard watching in the last week of the season. Again, an extremely tall task for a club that hasn’t won four in a row.
As for the strength of schedule for some teams ahead of them, there isn’t much of a variance between them. It’s not like the Bruins will be playing the Avs and Carolina in six of their remaining games. Boston sees the Devils twice, Columbus twice as well as Toronto, Florida, and Washington. However they will also face Buffalo, the Lightning twice, Detroit, Montreal and Minnesota.
As for the Islanders, they have Montreal twice and Carolina twice in their last 18 games. They also face Toronto and Ottawa twice each as well as Chicago, Columbus, Calgary, and St. Louis. Not exactly a murderer’s row of competition. The one small advantage is the Flyers have two more games in hand on New York, so the optimistic Flyers fan could see that current eight-point lead essentially cut down to four should the Flyers obviously win both of those games they have yet to play.
Regulation wins could hold back Flyers
With just 19 regulation wins in 62 games, it’s quite evident the Flyers are going to lose the tiebreaker should they match someone with an equal point total. The nearest team to them in terms of regulation wins is the Islanders with 23. Montreal sits nine points ahead of Philadelphia and they only have 23, but the Flyers don’t have the luxury of trying to catch a team now nine points ahead of them. Eight points is bad enough! They are going to have to out-point everyone that they are trying to catch. Tying them at year’s end is useless. Which means there’s an even greater emphasis in the next week or two to win in 60 minutes. Earning as many regulation wins as possible is crucial if Philadelphia wants to have any advantage in landing a playoff spot.
The Flyers gave up a few regulation wins over of the course of the year, ones they’d dearly like to have back now. That goes with the ups and downs of a regular season. Having won under one-third of your games without giving the opponent a single point isn’t a great way to create distance, unless the distance is how far behind you are chasing a playoff spot.
And also, the 3-point games
Perhaps an equally huge hurdle that Philadelphia has to jump over these last 20 games is seeing a lot of teams who are rather safely in playoff spots not wanting to risk losing a point in regulation in order to go for the regulation win. Granted, some teams will have a chance to win it late and will go for it. But a lot of times, two teams who have nothing to gain by possibly losing in regulation aren’t going to take that risk. Especially if you’re facing a Western Conference opponent who is irrelevant to your playoff hunt.
Which means the Flyers will be needing to run the gauntlet as best they can over the next 20 to try and hope like hell games involving two teams directly ahead of them are simply regulation wins for one or the other. As it stands now it’s close to a no-win situation for the Flyers when those games come up. The Islanders and Columbus face each other twice. The Bruins and Columbus face each other twice. So whatever the Flyers do, they can’t gain ground on both teams that night.
It’s difficult to gain a lot of points, jump a few teams, and hope those teams ahead of you play far under .500 hockey the rest of the way. That’s what’s going to make this so daunting for Philadelphia. A few wins this week (or possibly taking three of four games between Monday night and Saturday’s tilt) would heighten the chances slightly, or at least give them a little better chance to make the West Coast trek a bit more interesting.
Two or three losses this week combined with Boston, the Isles, or Columbus going on a mini-streak (not to mention Ottawa and how they fare) and it’s probably going to be miraculous if they are still in the playoff hunt near the end of March.
MoneyPuck has the Flyers at 7.7 per cent of making the playoffs. They also have them at 89.4 points at the end of the year. With 69 points now, that would have them basically going .500 the rest of the season. That would put them out of the playoffs but in the teens when it comes to the NHL Draft most likely. In short, no man’s land.
Meanwhile, Hockey-Reference has the Flyers with the best odds at, er, 12.5 per cent (one in eight chance) of getting to the sweet sixteen. Again, nothing is impossible if they have the games ahead of them, and if Dan Vladar has any say in it, the Flyers will be competitive each and every night. A four-game winning streak this weeks puts that magic number of 13 wins in 20 games down to needing nine wins in 16 games, or just a little bit above .500 the rest of the way.
Skeptics might believe the Flyer faithful who think they still have life are dumb and dumber. But, to reference the line from the movie of the same name, you’re telling me there’s a chance. They’re not mathematically eliminated. However, right now I wouldn’t bet the house on it. Or a picture of any house for that matter.
