If Alexei Kolosov was expecting an NHL spot over Ivan Fedotov, was he justified? 

In Danny Briere’s press conference Tuesday, there were a few notable quotes – and an official confirmation of his absence – regarding Belarusian goaltender Alexei Kolosov. 

Among them, a particularly important one: “On his end, it’s more that he wants to be guaranteed a spot in the NHL, if not, he prefers to stay over there. And that’s not the way we see it. We agreed last year to loan him back for one year because he wanted to stay home, but at some point, you signed a contract. We want him here, we want him to start integrating himself to the game and the way it’s played here in North America.” 

Yeah, the Flyers have another prospect that seems to expect the NHL to be handed to him. If I was Briere, maybe I would have given Kolosov more equal footing with Fedotov in competing for the backup job – but drawing the line with Kolosov is also a completely understandable move. If the reality is as Briere laid it out in the press conference (he later added information about the support staff in Lehigh Valley and how they tried to help Kolosov last season), the Flyers being frustrated is a perfectly reasonable outcome here. 

But, is the basis of Kolosov’s wish understandable? From a player standpoint, of course he sees himself in the big leagues right away, but does he actually deserve an equal-to-better shot than Fedotov? That’s not so clear, so let’s get into a side-by-side comparison of the two goaltenders. 

KHL Statistics 

In terms of pure on-ice performance, the statistical standpoint puts the conversation in the Fedotov court. Fedotov’s worst season-long save percentage (the year where he returned from military service!) is still higher than Kolosov’s career best mark of .912. Now, there are team-effects to take into consideration here, as Kolosov’s Dinamo Minsk squad was continually one of the worst defensive teams in the league. His stats treading above water, in those circumstances, is undoubtedly impressive, and really what makes the comparison between Fedotov and Kolosov compelling. 

Fedotov, on the other hand, played for a mediocre Traktor Chelyabinsk team in his first two KHL seasons, and perennial powerhouse CSKA Moskva in his final two KHL seasons. On both those teams, Fedotov’s situation was much more tenable than Kolosov’s, which could help explain Fedotov’s superior surface level stats throughout his career. Still, Fedotov’s stats were not a misnomer – they were indicative of a really good KHL goaltender playing with and against the league’s best. Take his performance in the 2021-22 KHL Playoffs, where he posted a 1.85 GAA and a .937 SV% en route to a championship for CSKA Moskva. Those are impressive numbers, a strong team around him or not. 

In terms of track record, I’d give the slight edge to Fedotov, even if Kolosov’s numbers might have been dragged down by his team’s weaknesses. 

The Flyers Circumstances

For the hockey team, there’s a few things going on here. For one, the Flyers’ investment in Fedotov is massive – on both a human and hockey level. Presumably, the Flyers efforts to bring Fedotov over from a delicate geopolitical situation in Russia was tenuous, considering the much talked about military service that Fedotov was subjected to the first time he attempted to come stateside. That was years ago, and for many, there was little expectation that the once-dominant KHLer would ever make it to the NHL. Thus, upon navigating through a situation like Fedotov’s, it’s completely fair for the Flyers to see what they have with the older goaltender first. 

There’s also the age factor with Fedotov. Fedotov is stepping in as a 27 year old rookie, versus the much younger Alexei Kolosov at 22 years old. Theoretically, there’s a much longer timeline with Kolosov, and perhaps more room for Kolosov to develop with AHL competition. To an extent, although Fedotov has to adjust to the NHL, what the Flyers see is likely most of what the Flyers are going to get with him. From a pure timeline standpoint, Fedotov is the most logical goaltender to come first in the “let’s see what we have” debate. 

It’s important also to consider the Flyers greater goaltending situation when analyzing this situation. Entering the year with two relatively inexperienced and unproven goaltenders, Kolosov absolutely would have the opportunity at some point to prove his capabilities and potentially take a job from one of Ersson or Fedotov. If one of them falters, or gets injured for that matter, Kolosov would be the first call. Briere said as such in his presser, and now the Flyers are staring at the distinct possibility that Cal Peterson gets starts for the Orange and Black in 2024-25. Even if the set plan is to begin the season with Ersson-Fedotov as the tandem, I’d imagine Kolosov running away from a pretty weak (and eventually winnable for Kolosov) situation in net has not gone over well with the Flyers brass. 

And finally, from the Flyers side of things, I’d imagine there’s some residual fatigue from the Cutter Gauthier situation here. There’s some shades of that here, even though the situations are quite different in nature. It’s not a great look for the team that a second top prospect – albeit a much lesser name this time – has decided simply not to report to the team again. The Flyers are trying to build a culture of players who want to be here, and even though I think the Flyers deserve some level of criticism for ultimately not convincing Kolosov to come over, the desire to be a Flyer is integral to the organization here. I think back to a quote from CEO Dan Hilferty in the aftermath of the Gauthier situation, and after Briere’s quotes today, it’s an interesting thought to ponder. 

“If you (don’t) want to be in Philadelphia so be it. Go somewhere else. We want someone that wants to be in this city. Wants to a part of the fabric of this city. Wants to be excited to put that uniform on every single day.”