It wasn’t a scene from The Godfather, but Flyers general manager Danny Briere will never resemble the fictional character Don Vito Corleone more than he did last week. That’s according to hockey agents Matt and Ryan Keator, the agents representing Anaheim Ducks center Leo Carlsson.
In a special Tuesday evening edition of 32 Thoughts, Elliotte Friedman interviewed both Matt Keator, a veteran agent, and his son Ryan, who is a 27-year-old hockey agent in his second year. After some brief introductions, Matt explained how he became familiar with Carlsson and other Swedish players. Ryan, who met Carlsson initially at the 2023 NHL Draft, said the youngster believed he was heading to Columbus as many believed the Blue Jackets would’ve drafted him.
Friedman noted that sources close to the negotiation believed Anaheim’s general manager Pat Verbeek offered Carlsson a deal for eight years and $84 million ($10.5 million average annual value). However, the Keators said they saw something in the market which altered their perception. “It’s an offer that we were quick to turn down right away, and it wasn’t for their lack of trying,” Matt Keator said. “It’s just that we needed time to figure out the marketplace, and where the marketplace was going. They were tenacious, they were after us on it, through September and October. And we used that September and October time to do more research.”
Ryan said he took the lead from there on regarding the marketplace such as the percentage of the cap, comparables, and other criteria. “The big thing I was looking at was the cap going up,” Ryan said, adding how the post-pandemic landscape has seen a boost in the cap ceiling. And one that will see roughly a 40 per cent increase in the cap from 2023-24 to 2028-29. “Those are astronomical numbers, and we just didn’t want to jump on something right away,” Ryan said.
In November, Matt Keator said the team wanted to continue negotiations, but the agents wanted to “educate” Carlsson about the changing cap. “What we didn’t want to have happen was we didn’t want Leo to sign a contract that he would regret in relation to the marketplace in later years,” Matt said. “Now listen $80 million is a lot of money, we understand that, we get that. But we’re living in a marketplace and operating within the NHL marketplace. Every contract that a player signs affects others around him. You have to be cognizant about that.” Ryan also stated both he and his father were still trying to “figure out” who Carlsson was as a player. “It was our decision, not the Ducks.”
After January, the agents didn’t discuss any contract talks with Carlsson, believing it was best to wait until the season’s end. Matt alluded to Carlsson’s demeanor and calmness, stating “he’s ordering a martini while the plane was going down.” As well, the agents said they never doubted their plan at any point during negotiations, adding nothing wavered even during Carlsson’s injury during the season. When the season ended, Anaheim was “aggressively” trying to get a deal done but the agents held off, instead meeting with Carlsson and his family in early June, believing the “key comparable” for the center was Chicago’s Connor Bedard.
Flyers offer sheet too good to refuse
Matt Keator said they knew there was the possibility of an offer sheet for Carlsson, but felt there was a “slim chance of it” and something they weren’t really planning on. In June the agents told Anaheim they were waiting for Bedard’s deal to be finalized before continuing contract talks. Once June 30 arrived, the date which teams could begin discussing a possible offer sheet, Matt said there was a team that contacted him at 12:04 a.m. on June 30. “We weren’t expecting it,” he said, adding seven or eight teams were interested but four made offers. The four teams were narrowed to two, while the agents told Anaheim this could be “coming into play.” On July 1 they sent Carlsson the contract offer in writing and “he was speechless.”
“I think he was overwhelmed by the structure, how it was front-loaded, almost all of it in signing bonus, and frankly that makes a huge difference when you’re making that decision,” Matt said. “Because that’s up-front money. That’s money in your pocket with compound interest, so the value’s even greater. I think the offer he received was something that he and his family couldn’t refuse. Like The Godfather, he made him an offer he couldn’t refuse.”
Matt said the Flyers didn’t overtly give the agents and Carlsson a deadline to sign the offer sheet, but all parties felt there was a “sense of urgency” to close the deal and sign the offer sheet. The concept was broached between the Flyers and Carlsson’s agents on June 30, with the numbers revealed to the player and his camp on July 1. “I think we zeroed in on them with their structure pretty much right away,” Matt said, adding it was a nervous six days wondering if Anaheim would match.” On hearing the numbers they relayed to Carlsson, the agents said Carlsson’s end of the line went silent as the player was “speechless.”
The agents didn’t disclose what was said after the offer sheet was signed, saying it wouldn’t be fair to Anaheim. On July 3, Carlsson signed, “not wanting to lose out on this opportunity.” Several of his teammates congratulated him, acknowledging their situation could change following the center’s cap hit each year. It also sounds as if the team and the player have put aside any differences they may have had as it “wasn’t personal, just business.”
Finally, Friedman asked if they had any notion last September this number would’ve been tossed around, both said there was no chance. As a result, Anaheim kept Carlsson, and the Flyers are still left looking to fill a hole in their lineup sooner than later.
