It’s almost cliche to point out the fact that the Philadelphia Flyers need a first-line center. It’s so obvious that the notion is seeping into other fan bases until one day all 32 will know that this team has a big hole to fill. But there might just be a solution coming this summer and it could come from the New York Islanders.
Almost immediately after he entered the league last decade, Mat Barzal was seen as someone who could bring the Islanders to relevancy and was someone just waiting to eventually break out and be on the of the top players in the NHL. Maybe not on the level of the very tippy top, but as one of the top 20 forwards or so? Almost certainly.
Since then, he’s somewhat faded into obscurity. He has now never hit a point per game in a season, and tumbled slightly down the Islanders depth chart as he’s barely playing over 20 minutes a night. Suddenly, he now 29 years old and haven’t really hit that proposed peak.
As the Islanders look to turn the corner now with franchise face Matthew Schaefer on the back end and other prospects coming up, they may be making a big blockbuster move involving Barzal and somewhat soon.
Barzal could be available this summer — the Flyers need to pounce
In an article on Monday, The Ottawa Citizen’s Bruce Garrioch drops a bit of a bombshell that the skilled center could be available this summer.
“A league executive told The Citizen that the New York Islanders are exploring the market for forward Mathew Barzal. The club would like to clear some cap space, but it’s a big financial commitment with four years left at $9.15 million through 2030-31,” Garrioch writes.
“Reports indicate the Utah Mammoth kicked tires on Barzal last summer, but opted not to make the move. Barzal, 29, finished with 19 goals and 72 points in 81 games with the Isles last season, but that salary would be tough for the Senators to swallow.”
This does not mean that Barzal is for sure leaving Long Island. Just that the Islanders are dipping their toes into the trade waters to see what the desire for their 29-year-old center truly is. Because, as Garrioch points out, there could be a smaller market for him than expected.
With Barzal signed until the 2030-31 season at a cap hit of $9.15 million, he’s not going to be available for every single team out there. Just the fact that he’s not a sure fire top-line center signed until he is 34 years old could make some teams walk away, but add that he’s making close enough to eight digits a year and that might just take even more teams out of the running.
Barzal is not a bad player at all. He just finished a 72-point campaign where he earned the most assists he’s had since his Calder-winning rookie year all the way back in 2018. Add the fact that he’s only ever had one season where he finished below 50 percent in 5-on-5 shot attempt share and is genuinely an excellent skater that excels in transition — there’s so much to like about his game.
And that just seems like a perfect match for the Flyers. Like, just look at this. You don’t want someone who can just pull out this level of skating in open ice?
Here lies a slightly distressed asset because of his large contract and his team’s desire to move on from him, and the Flyers having a hole that they need to fill and will gladly take this player that could just gel in so well for this team.
Flyers can fit Barzal under their cap fairly easily
As always, finances have to play a part.
The Flyers are projected to have around $37.49 million in cap space this summer with the NHL’s salary cap rising to $104 million. That is with some players like Jett Luchanko and Oliver Bonk on their roster — two prospects who could start out the year in the AHL so theoretically you can bump up that number by a couple million if you really wanted to.
Notably, the Flyers have a couple restricted free agents to sign. Both Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale could feasibly get long-term contracts with the Flyers, which would obviously chip away at their available cap. According to Evolving-Hockey, if Zegras were to be signed to a seven-year extension, that would come with a cap hit around $8.65 million; and if Drysdale went for five years, that would come in around $6.15 million. Add in Emil Andrae and Nikita Grebenkin each re-signing around a $1.5 million AAV, and we get a clearer picture.
With those four restricted free agents coming back (and someone like Luchanko sent down) and add in something like a nameless $3-million backup goaltender, the Flyers would have approximately $13 million in cap space.
A total of $13 million in cap space for a full roster of players who just made the playoffs and won a series. They can more than afford to bring in Barzal’s $9.1-million AAV and they would barely feel it. Well, obviously it would limit them to having just a few million bucks of wiggle room — but that number also doesn’t include any current Flyers who have their own contracts and cap hits to make the money work even further.
What can a trade package for Barzal look like?
This would be the Flyers’ big move of the last couple years. Acquiring Trevor Zegras felt like a super buy-low move where some teams just didn’t believe that he could get back to where he was earlier in his career, or just didn’t want someone like him on the team to begin with. But Barzal will have a whole lot more suitors since he could easily be a Stanley Cup contender’s answer for a second-line center with some pop.
General manager Danny Briere will be facing more competition to acquire Barzal than he has ever faced for a player before. Which will certainly drive the price up.
The only thing is that in Garrioch didn’t mention an estimated trade package that would have to go to Long Island for the former 13th-overall pick. A player is worth whatever a team is willing to give up, so we can only provide an educated guess to what the Flyers could be willing to trade to their own division rival for Barzal.
The elephant in the room is that they do need to part ways with a winger to clear some of the logjam that is happening on the flanks. Could something surrounding Owen Tippett and this year’s 21st-overall pick work? Add in an Alex Bump, or a Jett Luchanko, and then something might equate to equal value.
Because after all, if Barzal slows down even just ever so slightly as he enters his 30s, a team needing to pay him $9.15 million a year (and all in salary too, with no bonuses at all) would be a sizeable burden even as the NHL’s salary cap balloons in the coming years. Would you be willing to have a $9-million hole on your cap for a 50-point player? And that could prevent you from making the most out of future contract extensions to players who are cornerstones to your organization?
There’s an inherent risk, but it should be one the Flyers are willing to take.
If they end up trading a roster player like Tippett or even Rasmus Ristolainen, that makes the financial add so much easier for this upcoming season. And, it shouldn’t prevent the team from going long-term on any future contract extensions for Porter Martone, Matvei Michkov, Tyson Foerster, or just about any other potential core piece going forward.
Considering where this team is at and how they could actually add an experienced player with a skillset like Barzal’s, and that they are financially flexible enough to take on his contract, the entire picture just makes too much sense for the Flyers.
It wouldn’t be shocking if Danny Briere is a little risk adverse and doesn’t really go fully into the idea of adding Barzal to this team — because what if Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid or Nico Hischier become available and now the Flyers are already committed to Barzal? — but it should be an avenue that the Flyers at least explore.
