Flyers prospect season review: Samu Tuomaala’s sophomore slump

With the Phantoms\' season all wrapped up, and a bit of time now taken to let all of the dust settle in the wake of a disappointing playoff exit, it\'s time that we start looking back in a big picture sort of way, and breaking down how each of the Flyers prospects on the team fared over the course of the season. We\'ll be working through those over the next few weeks, and we\'ll kick things off today by diving into one of the more strange and at times challenging individual seasons -- Samu Tuomaala\'s

Despite his rookie season in 2023-24 coming to an unfortunate early end -- as an injury he took midway through April held him out through the end of the regular season as well as the playoffs -- it was one which felt largely successful, and which had him heading into his second season with the team on what felt like a high note.

Games played Goals Assists Points PIM Shots on goal Shooting percentage 46 11 21 32 30 91 12.1

What followed for him, though, wasn\'t as smooth of a next step forward as we might have hoped to see. His season saw him hit some really notable highs and look quite dynamic at times, but it was a season which was also undeniably streaky. He was on pace to score at a higher clip this season, but that scoring came in bunches -- after scoring 20 points in the first 19 games of the season (through the whole months of October and November) he put up just three points in December, and even more concerningly, saw his underlying process drop off as frustration at the lack of scoring seemed to mount for him.

Also notable here is the shortness of Tuomaala\'s season, and the reasoning there is twofold. Tuomaala did deal with some bad luck in the injury department -- he missed some time on and off in February as he dealt with a lingering injury, and then took a lower body injury on March 1 which kept him out for the remainder of the season. But between December and February, his spot in the lineup was less secure. He had this truly horrific showing early in December which earned him his first of a couple of healthy scratchings of the season, as he struggled to work himself out of a bit of that spiral and get back to making some better decisions in his play. And while he did make some positive progress -- his game didn\'t completely screech to a halt, and he saw some flashes of progress and still managed 12 points through the back half of his season for his troubles -- but flashes they remained.

Games Tracked Corsi-For % Scoring Chances-For % High Danger Attempts-For % Primary Shot Assists Secondary Shot Assists 19 46.23 48.61 45.76 14 4

Dipping into some of the underlying numbers -- though over a smaller sample of games, we have to acknowledge -- and they more or less back up what the eye was telling us. On a team that was generally driving play well throughout the season (even if they were struggling to finish), they were getting out-chanced pretty handily when he was on the ice. Now, the positive side here is that he was setting up his linemates for a good volume of shots (he\'s fourth on the team in primary shot assists in this dataset), so there\'s a nod to his playmaking taking a step forward, it didn\'t manifest into enough to tip the scales back in his favor, or to balance out the frequency with which his line found themselves hemmed into their own end and struggling to make quick breakouts.

Three Questions

Did they live up to expectations?

This is a tricky one, because, depending on who you asked heading into this season, there might have been some outsized expectations at play right from the jump. That is, one might have seen Tuomaala stepping up as one of the team\'s top offensive powers in his rookie season, putting up those 43 points over 69 games on a struggling Phantoms team, earning an All Star appearance, and thought that his development was on a rapid upward trajectory and he was set to break out in a huge way this season. One might, then, look at his production -- which saw him take just a marginal step forward, on pace to score just five more points over the same span of time -- and think that he plateaued.

But this isn\'t the full story. Tuomaala, despite the flashy production in his first season, was still a bit raw developmentally, and had a not-insignificant list of things he needed to work on to ensure that he\'s fully coming into his own as a player and solidifying himself as a lineup regular at the AHL level, before the question of moving up was even entertained. The more measured expectation, with the full scope taken into account, was that he would spend the full season down with the Phantoms, and maybe work through some ups and downs as he continues to put the more difficult developmental work in. And this was, more or less, just what happened.

Tuomaala came out hot to start the season and was producing at a really nice clip, and that was certainly a positive, but even more encouraging was how well-rounded his approach appeared to be. That is, he was creating a good volume of chances, but not exclusively relying on his speed and elusiveness for them, rather, he was equally prioritizing crashing the net for higher quality looks. He was engaged physically, he was supporting his teammates away from the puck, and seemed to overall be making a positive impact. Quickly, though, things dropped off on him, and he struggled to maintain that level of engagement over longer spans of time, and while he was certainly able to bring it in flashes, just as quickly he seemed to allow himself to backslide into something of a singularly puck-focused game.

Perhaps the biggest shame here is that when he returned to the lineup at the end of February, he looked the most engaged he had in a while, like something had clicked for him again, and just as it looked like he might be able to begin building some positive momentum, he took that injury which ended his whole season.

What would we like to see him improve on next season?

In a lot of ways, the hopes for next season are the same as the hopes were for this one. We know well that Tuomaala has maintained his strong offensive instincts and has the shot to keep beating goaltenders at this level, even now that they have more of a book on him. The supporting cast on this team next year will almost certainly be better as well, which will help him continue to pile up the points, so it\'s not necessarily a question of a certain number he should be hitting, but how well he\'s able to develop his game around that scoring potential.

If those healthy scratchings this season have taught him anything, it\'s that scoring goals isn\'t going to erase all of the mistakes elsewhere in the game for you anymore, and it will be important for him to find ways to remain engaged with play when he\'s not scoring, to use that great speed to back check with some consistency, to be more focused in getting to the net for more dangerous chances rather than over-relying on an ability to beat goalies from a distance, and, perhaps even more critically, to continue to develop a mature mindset and avoid letting frustration spiral when he inevitably hits a stretch where the bounces aren\'t going his way. There are certainly some really exciting tools at Tuomaala\'s disposal, but there\'s a lot of room for improvement as far as rounding out the rest of his game goes.

What can we expect from him next season?

As we alluded to, if you had asked this question at the beginning of last year, when Tuomaala\'s stock seemed to be on the rise, the answer would have likely been that we\'d expect for him to be at least pushing for a roster spot with the Flyers to start this 2025-26 season. Now, while a strong camp might go a long way to keep him in the mix, given the developmental struggles he went through this season paired with the time lost with injury, it\'s a safer bet to say that Tuomaala should start the season back down with the Phantoms, keep chipping away at it, and work back up towards a look with the big squad.

And while some might look at this and feel like it\'s him falling behind schedule, it\'s worthwhile to remember that Tuomaala is still just 22 years old, and has had something of a rough road developmentally up to this point -- before joining the Phantoms on a full-time basis last season, he\'d played for six different teams across the span of two years. There\'s a lot that has to be done to build back from that, and still a lot of developmental runway ahead of him. This season coming up is going to be a big one, no doubt about it, but it\'s also still not to the absolute make or break point just yet, either.

Talking Points