Should Michkov become first $10M AAV Flyer?

The Philadelphia Flyers and their fans are happy Matvei Michkov is with the club, entering his sophomore season after an impressive (but somehow not Calder Tropy-nominated) rookie year. Given how it could\'ve played out, Michkov would have another year left on his KHL contract, and the team would be counting the days until the 2026-27 season began with the Mad Russian in the lineup. But he\'s here, and that\'s reason for celebrating.

It\'s also reason enough to start looking down the road and seeing if the Flyers should seriously consider locking up Michkov on a lengthy, lucrative contract. While Flyers general manager Danny Briere has bridged nearly every Restricted Free Agent that he\'s negotiated with, Michkov is different. Very, very different. A dynamic, high-end, high-IQ talent that makes the Flyers\' turn towards contention far more possible much more quickly. A player who saw a boatload of mistakes in his game and clearly communicated ways to correct them, almost flooring Briere in the year-end exit interview with his self-criticism. And a player who will be completing his three-year entry-level contract at the end of the 2026-27 season.

So, with that in mind, is it reasonable for Briere to take the same path with Michkov that he\'s done with Noah Cates, Tyson Foerster, and Morgan Frost (back in 2023), namely a bridge deal? Or should he look at the bigger picture, see that maybe Michkov at an Average Annual Value at or just north of $10,000,000 is wise and keep Michkov signed until he\'s 30 years of age? He might be burning a few years of Restricted Free Agency, but is signing him at the soonest possible date (next summer) actually saving the Flyers money and cap space with a rising ceiling?

In their history, the Flyers have never had a player (at least none this writer can recall) having an AAV of $10 million per season. They\'ve had a few players who have seen $10,000,000 as salary in a season, including Briere himself. Briere\'s six-year, $52 million contract signed in 2007 with Philadelphia came with a $10,000,000 first-year salary. But nothing close to an average of $10 million per season. Ilya Bryzgalov also made $10 million in 2011-12, again on a somewhat frontloaded contract but not hitting the $10 million AAV. Going back to the \'90s, Eric Lindros and his representation felt that number would be fair. The Flyers didn\'t, settling on a two-year, $16 million extension in late 1997. That same 1997-98 season saw the Flyers paying Chris Gratton $10.15 million. But again, the AAV of the multi-year deal wasn\'t that magic number.

There are many reasons to sign Matvei Michkov to a deal at or a bit north of $10 million a season. For one, it would give one of the cornerstones of the rebuild the confidence and reassurance that he\'s not going anywhere. If it wasn\'t clear before, whether from Briere and President of Hockey Operations Keith Jones waiting for him at the airport last year or assisting him with the logistics of relocating from Russia, a contract worth eight figures per season would show Michkov the Flyers want him. And want him to help them win. Secondly, it would show Unrestricted Free Agents that Philadelphia is open for business and opening their checkbook to land (or keep) great talent. Knowing a playmaker like Michkov could be a longterm linemate could be the difference between the Flyers landing a coveted UFA player and watching him go elsewhere. The UFA class of 2026 could be one for the ages with Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel, Martin Necas, and Kirill Kaprizov possibly all hitting the market. Although we know it\'s doubtful that each of their current teams will let these stars walk.

Secondly, with the salary cap having an estimated ceiling of $113.5 million for 2027-28, a Michkov contract at or slightly north of $10 million AAV would still be under 10 per cent of the team\'s cap. And assuming revenues continue to grow (and a 12-year television deal with Sportsnet/Rogers worth $11 billion Canadian starting in 2026-27), that percentage would marginally shrink year over year, leaving Philadelphia to have more cap flexibility to land more talent and fill more holes. The devil\'s advocate could argue signing Michkov to a big, beefy deal so young could see his play diminish as he has his money already. Yet if his next contract was a bridge deal and Michkov had stellar seasons over that contract, Michkov could conceivably command somewhere in the vicinity of $13 million AAV or higher when that bridge deal is done. Signing him to a larger but fair amount now could resolve a more contentious negotiation down the road. Next to injury, the word \"arbitration\" when speaking about Michkov should scare the hell out of anyone!

How would such a deal fit into the Flyers current cap structure? Well, assuming the Flyers aren\'t able to land a marquee UFA this season (or make a ridiculous eight-figure overpay on an established (past his prime?) player), Michkov\'s $10 million AAV would put him atop the Flyers payroll, just above Travis Konecny\'s $8.75 million and Sean Couturier\'s $7.75 million. More importantly, it would also set the standard for those coming down the pipe, whether Jett Luchanko, Alex Bump, Foerster or some other prospect. If you\'re better or more valuable to the Flyers than Michkov, then you\'ll be paid accordingly. Of course, this would be betting on the idea Michkov is going to be a 90-point to 100-point player most of his career. If Michkov implodes, then the Flyers will find themselves in a bind. Or a ridiculous, mind-numbing, migraine-inducing buyout situation.

The Flyers will also see themselves rid of the following contracts (including retained ones and buyouts) when the 2027-28 season begins: Ryan Ellis ($6.25 million AAV although on LTIR), Kevin Hayes ($3.571 million), Scott Laughton ($1.5 million), Cam Atkinson ($1.758 million), Ivan Fedotov ($3.275 million), Ryan Poehling ($1.9 million), Nic Deslauriers ($1.75 million), Rasmus Ristolainen ($5.1 million), and Garnet Hathaway ($2.4 million). Add that up and you have just over $27.5 million freed up, assuming none of these players are retained. Not to compare any Flyers duo to the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisatl, but next season those two Oiler players will be making a combined $26.5 million. So you could arguably afford the two best players in the NHL next year and still have money left over. That\'s a lot of coin to address other issues (or go big game hunting next summer). Granted they will have to sign a bevy of young RFAs (Hunter McDonald, Emil Andrae, Nikita Grebenkin and a host of others) next summer which will eat into a portion of that $27.5 million. However, it\'s probably safe to assume none of those contracts would break the bank. Instead they would fall in line with many of the bridge deals Briere has made so far since taking over in May 2023.

One other aspect not talked about is the mindset fans and followers have had the last several years. The salary cap was almost etched in stone year after year, with the pandemic throwing a huge wrench into how teams looked at their finances. The cap rises approximately $25 million over the next three seasons from its current figure. So players comparable to Noah Cates making $4 million AAV the next few seasons could end up being closer to $6.5 million AAV when their time for a new contract arises. The numbers will rise even though it\'s probably safe to assume the percentage of a team\'s salary cap will remain somewhat similar. And with that, some comparables should only viewed in terms of the production and what percentage of the team\'s cap that player eats up. The cap is rising, so the contracts from the top line to the fourth line should be increasing also. That means whatever number you might currently have regarding Michkov and a cap hit, add at least another few million to the amount if a bridge deal is agreed to first.

There are plenty of variables and intangibles which could hamper or hinder Michkov signing a long-term contract that sees him become the first $10 million AAV player in Flyers history. Assuming he remains healthy, continues to develop while Philadelphia keeps adding talented, problem-solving pieces, then it would be wise of Briere to give Michkov a fair market contract sooner than later. Trying to play hardball with him at the end of 2026-27 could throw the entire rebuilld into chaos. A bridge deal probably doesn\'t truly save the Flyers more money. It may all depend on whether Briere, who has consistently stated his preference for a player to be 33 or 34 when their big contract ends, is willing to adjust and adapt to the changing economic conditions.

A Michkov contract of eight years would see it begin in 2027-28 when he\'s 22 going on 23, ending when he\'s 30 going on 31 when the 2034-35 season concludes. By then it should be clear whether he is worth resigning or not. Michkov could be the generational talent the Flyers haven\'t seen since Lindros. It would seem foolhardy to nickel and dime him next summer when Philadelphia\'s success this coming season will be judged on merely getting to the playoffs, not winning 16 post-season games. In the big picture, Michkov should be the Flyers first $10 million AAV player. And the sooner the ink dries on that contract, the better!

Talking Points