What Nikita Grebenkin can bring to the Flyers

The Philadelphia Flyers made the biggest move they could at this year\'s NHL trade deadline. As they continue down their own rebuilding journey, they shipped out longtime veteran forward Scott Laughton to the Toronto Maple Leafs. In exchange, they got a first-round pick but that\'s not what we\'re going to focus on here.

In addition to the future draft selection, the Flyers acquired 21-year-old winger Nikita Grebenkin from the Leafs organization.

The young Russian forward was selected in the fifth round of the 2022 NHL Draft at 135th overall but has quickly rocketed out of the typical projected for a late-round pick and established himself as a force overseas. He was busy playing in the MHL during his draft year, but the following season was able to be loaned to a lesser KHL club for a larger opportunity and seized it. He scored nine goals and 26 points in 45 games of his rookie KHL season -- not bad whatsoever.

And as soon as he came back to Metallurg Magnitogorsk with that loan experience, he took off. Nineteen goals and 41 points in 67 games at just 20 years old in the KHL while playing on a line with Minnesota Wild first-round pick Danila Yurov. Grebenkin certainly was a complementary player compared to Yurov but he was obviously no slouch or coattail rider.

Since the KHL\'s inception in 2008, Grebenkin\'s 0.61 points per game last season ranks 28th all time among players under 21 years old. And while on paper that is not all that impressive, the only players above him in this ranking that have not established themselves as full-time NHL players are Ziyat Paigan, Ilya Usov, Nikolai Prokhorkin, Anatoli Golyshev, Alexander Vasilyev, and Nikita Filatov. Sure, there are some names that produced at a higher level that did not establish themselves in North America, but that\'s also because either they did not come overseas or when they did, they weren\'t good enough. Grebenkin has already shown that he is capable of producing over here at a young age.

And even if we want to dig through some more KHL context for last season, there are top-line NHL players who earned similar numbers as Grebenkin. Artemi Panarin (0.62 points per game), Pavel Buchnevich (0.64), and Kirill Marchenko (0.68), are all current top-six forwards in the NHL who produced just ever so slightly more when they were Grebenkin\'s age. That\'s some esteemed company for a fifth-round draft pick to suddenly find himself around.

Summing up a bunch of numbers being thrown at you: Grebenkin produced at a similar level in the KHL as some very good NHL players did and with a handful of AHL games already under his belt, he has shown he is able to adapt his game to North America.

But what really is his game? We know how many points he produced and the result of his work, but what does he do well and better than others?

Grebenkin is a big, strong 6-foot-2 left-shot right winger with an awkward-looking upright stance, decent hands and a good enough feel as a passer. He’s a north-south worker whose game fits on the smaller ice surface, allowing him to stick his nose into dirty areas to try to him things happen. He has really filled out since getting drafted, going from rangy to stocky and has smoothed out his stride (which isn’t slow at all but doesn’t look clean either) and developed his shot into more of a tool (he gets it off really quickly). He’s always going to be a worker first who relies on his instincts and timing, with fall-back skill as more of a secondary or tertiary element, though. He sees the ice better than people think though and does have some skill in possession, though, too. He has started to attack for his own looks and unlock some more potential over the last couple of years. Grebenkin’s got a clear path to becoming an honest, complementary bottom-six NHL winger and fan favorite (which he has already become in Toronto).

Scott Wheeler, The Athletic

Thanks to The Athletic\'s Scott Wheeler, we get a clearer picture of his impact as a whole and what kind of tools he has on the ice. And from our own viewings of the player -- most certainly less often than Wheeler -- those boxes can be checked.

There is nothing flashy or attention-grabbing about Grebenkin\'s offensive game. He is a meat-and-potatoes type of winger that will be the puck digger along the boards, trying to his up his teammates for better scoring chances, creating space in the offensive zone, and generally doing whatever his coach needs of him. And while the Flyers are desperate to find the high-end forward talent that truly make a difference, you could never go wrong with getting a young player that already does the work that most coaches want them to.

But what is his ceiling? If the 21-year-old reaches his full potential and hits all the markers he needs to, what type of player are we looking at?

\"He can potentially blossom into something like a 50-point, second-line winger,\" PHLY\'s Alex Appleyard said Friday. \"But his floor, also, is quite high, as well. He\'s already a solid AHLer and he was a very good KHLer, but he doesn\'t have a top-six level of skillset. ... He\'s a physical playmaker, is probably the best way I could describe him. He has really good vision, plus hands, and great passing. He loves to set up behind the net and also make those east-west passes across the crease to create high-danger chances.

Is it crazy to think that Grebenkin\'s potential might be a slower-moving Nino Niederreiter, if everything goes right? His whole package screams someone responsible in all three zones but can comfortably play in a scoring role if they need. A swiss army knife of a winger that always proves to be more valuable than his contract or general reputation.

And in his most recent scouting report on Elite Prospects, from an AHL game on Feb. 17 of this year, it\'s evident that he can be that complementary winger that just makes everything work offensively.

Grebyonkin has been one of the Leafs\' biggest breakout prospects over the past couple seasons. With two points and a standout performance, this game really showcased why. He\'s an intense, physical winger with a direct game. Grabbed an assist by cutting back through a reception along the wall, cutting back again, and hitting a high pass to the point with perfect weight for a walk-in shot. The puck protection skills, overall, look better in the AHL than KHL -- moving his feet through contact, fending off checks, initiating contact proactively on back pressure (as he did for his goal), and absorbing contact well. And, of course, the hitting and intensity are still here. He desperately seeks out contact on the forecheck, launching himself at opponents. Even if he\'s not landing the hit, the speed he charges at opponents forces turnovers. He wins battles in the defensive zone with his physicality, proactive support, and activity level along the walls. He\'s more of a play-builder and cycle extender than a player who manipulates defenders to create high-value offence, but his combination of shooting and passing skills, physicality, and pace gives him a real chance to become a third-line, maybe middle-six supportive winger.

Mitchell Brown, Elite Prospects

Might just be us over here, but a \"cycle extender\" is a great way to accurately describe everything going on with Grebenkin. He might be the one to close out the cycle with a scoring chance, but he will work his tail off to create more and more pressure for longer and longer periods of time.

Of course, highlights of cycling the puck aren\'t exciting at all, but we figured it would be good to at least show some of the tangible skill that Grebenkin has in addition to his high on-ice work ethic. While he is not the most skilled skater, he can still score goals off the rush and instead of relying on speed to get the scoring chance, the young winger uses his stick skills and general awareness, like how he scored in this game against the Syracuse Crunch:

And even much more stationary, Grebenkin can weave the puck through a whole lot of defenders and keep the possession of a play for so much longer. As mentioned, a cycle extender.

On one goal against the Belleville Senators, Grebenkin was able to read the defensive coverage so well that he managed to keep the puck through an onslaught of sticks attempt to pry the puck of off his, and quickly turn and fire a shot on net, catching just about everyone on the ice off-guard. And, well it ended up in the back of the net.

You can see more on this play than most that Grebenkin\'s weakness is potentially higher pace in his play. He was able to produce in the KHL but found his rate drop with a slightly higher-pace league in the AHL, and then hasn\'t had an opportunity in the NHL to see if he can match those top speeds. That will be a key difference in him making the Flyers as a long-term option in the middle of the lineup, or only able to scratch the surface of his potential in the AHL and find himself back with Metallurg Magnitogorsk within a few years.

Not to end on a sour note, but that is the hurdle and something that the Flyers certainly want from all of their skaters. If Grebenkin has no problem adjusting to NHL-level speed of play, then he will be a very solid depth scorer for years to come; the only risk is the other side of it and his game relying so much on a slower game.

As of right now, Grebenkin will start his time in the Flyers organization with the AHL\'s Lehigh Valley Phantoms and is also instantly the most interesting prospect down there for the team. For him to not spend the rest of the season down there, he would need to pop off and score over a point per game for a solid stretch. And then, we can start thinking about him truly making an NHL impact.

His prospect status is not on the same level as other skaters with more draft pedigree or who plays center, but he is still certainly a great addition to the Flyers\' prospect pool.

Talking Points