I want nothing to do with Dallas.
While I’m sure my Philly-brained subconscious is hard at work, this has nothing to do with NFC East rivalries or last night’s opponent specifically. This has to do with what’s next for the Flyers.
The last few weeks have felt like a comedown from a high. For about two years, fans worked themselves into a post-pandemic fervor, watching a team descend from being a disappointment into a bottom feeder, and demanded organizational accountability in the form of new leadership with a clear plan and a new direction.
Well, that happened. Danny Briere and Dan Hilferty have succeeded the much-maligned Chuck Fletcher and Dave Scott, respectively, and have committed to a rebuild.
So now what? The people have gotten what they want. They may not be happy, but they’re probably content. I guess we’ll wait and see.
But what do we want to see? How do we want this rebuild to unfold? The need for a rebuild was obvious. The hard part will be determining when it should end.
As much as we wanted this to happen, we’re really going to want it to end. After all, winning is more fun than losing, and ending the rebuild means that somebody in a position of power thinks the team is on a path to competing.
So we’re going to see a lot of temptation to declare the rebuild over and a success. The second anything goes right, we’re going to see that guy on Twitter telling us how we might have something here. Yeah, you know the guy on Twitter – that guy using all 4,000 available characters to explain how if all 7,208 scenarios break properly we might really have something.
If the goal is to win a Stanley Cup, it’s going to take multiple superstars to compete. And in all likelihood, it’s going to require a lot of patience throughout overmatched seasons.
This is where Dallas comes into play.
The Stars are having a great year. They hosted the Flyers last night and ended the night tied atop the Central Division with the defending champs, the Colorado Avalanche. The Stars didn’t bottom out to get to this point. They’ve had at least 80 points in every full season since the 2004-05 lockout except one, 2016-17. They finished that season with 79 points and hit lottery gold, moving up from No. 8 to No. 3 to draft Miro Heiskanen (this is all we’re saying about that draft), who’s one of the key players on a team with realistic aspirations to win the West this year.
So, why wouldn’t I want to be Dallas? I don’t see how anyone could replicate their team building strategy.
Dallas took Jason Robertson in the second round in 2017 and he quickly developed into the team’s best offensive player. Roope Hintz, who is averaging just over a point per game as the team’s No. 1 center, was a second-round pick in 2015. Joe Pavelski, a free-agent acquisition, rounds out the Stars’ dominant top line.
While there will be some temptation to talk ourselves into another slow-footed sniper who entered the league without much acclaim should Tyson Foerster get off to a nice start next year, it’s important to remember that Robertson and the Stars are an anomaly.
This is similar to the argument about rebuilding over the past few years. Sure, the Blues won the Cup, but the teams surrounding their championship – Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington, Tampa Bay, Colorado – all had multiple top-five picks.
So, what’s the most likely path to achieve this goal?
Let’s look at how this year’s contenders acquired their core. While this is admittedly arbitrary, I’m going to use the top three from each division, as there does seem to be a significant tier drop down to the wild card teams.
Boston Bruins—David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy are a pair of mid-to-late first-round picks who developed into stars. Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand were Day 2 picks that I think played with Ray Bourque but just don’t seem to age.
Toronto Maple Leafs—Truly bottomed out and found a trio of core forwards in Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander in the top 10 before supporting them with free agent signing John Tavares and consistently solid depth.
Tampa Bay Lightning—They nailed a couple top-five picks to land Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman and flipped another, Jonathan Drouin, at the right time for Mikhail Sergachev. The Bolts also found Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point later in the draft. Andrei Vasilevskiy joined an ascending team as the 19th overall pick.
Carolina Hurricanes—Although Andrei Svechnikov was the second pick in 2018, the Canes have mostly built through later picks and savvy acquisitions. Sebastian Aho was a second-round pick, Martin Necas went 12th, and Jaccob Slavin lasted all the way until the fourth round.
New Jersey Devils—The Devils found a one-two punch down the middle with a pair of No. 1 picks in Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier. There’s more talent coming and I don’t want to talk about it.
New York Rangers—Artemi Panarin and Adam Fox really wanted to play in New York. If you’re lucky enough to have a superstar player desperate to play in your city, you get a built-in core to build around and have to do whatever you can to make it happen. Right, Chuck Fletcher? Regardless, this situation is probably unique to the New York market. Oh, and I’m not counting Alexis Lafreniere or Kaapo Kakko in the core. Good lord, this team would be a juggernaut if they lived up to their draft slots.
Colorado Avalanche—The current standard for the long-term rebuild. The Avs found Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Gabe Landeskog, Mikko Rantanen, and Bowen Byram in the top 10.
Dallas Stars—I’m not writing this again, I have a family I need to pay attention to. Just read my intro.
Minnesota Wild—What a bizarre team. Kirill Kaprizov was a fifth-round pick. Mats Zuccarello was a free agent signing. Joel Eriksson Ek developed into an elite two-way player and Matt Boldy is emerging as an offensive force from the middle of the first round. In reality, the bones of the roster are probably on the blue line. Jared Spurgeon was a sixth-round pick by the Islanders while Jonas Brodin and Matt Dumba were top 10 picks. A little bit of everything.
Vegas Golden Knights—All they had to do was take advantage of a bunch of general managers who had no idea how to handle an expansion draft then use every cent available to acquire every star on the market. Vegas remains in its own category of team building.
Edmonton Oilers—McDavid. Draisaitl. Next.
Los Angeles Kings—The Kings found Anze Kopitar and Drew Doughty early in the draft and it led to a couple Cups. Those guys are still producing after another rebuild, and with a couple of trade acquisitions the Kings are quietly putting together an incredible run over the past few months.
About half of this year’s contenders are carried by multiple high draft picks, but only Boston, Carolina, Minnesota, and Dallas built through late firsts and Day 2 picks with maybe a cameo at the top of the draft. Besides the obvious advantages with the opportunity to draft more accomplished junior players high in the draft, hitting in the later rounds becomes a one-in-32 proposition, competing with the entire league for long shots.
Even if the Flyers do end up with a franchise cornerstone in the draft, they need to resist the temptation to rush out of this rebuild. The best chance to finish this successfully is to find multiple key young players over the course of a few years.
And regardless, Dallas sucks.
