Over, Under or Properly Rated: Grading Rasmus Ristolainen’s tenure as a Flyer

When a team goes through a prolonged drought like the Philadelphia Flyers, it can be a challenge to find perspective. As much as one would have to imagine Sisyphus happy, there isn’t a ton of opportunity to evaluate the process of how the rock gets up the hill and if a change in strategy would make a difference. Regardless, the next day comes and they’re both back at the bottom.

That can make evaluating long-term Flyers like Rasmus Ristolainen feel like a pointless endeavor. He’s simply the latest defenseman in a long line of hopeful roster additions that didn’t yield better team results. A poster child of the Chuck Fletcher regime, Ristolainen was acquired in the final year of his old contract and promptly signed to the present deal that expires after next season.

With Ristolainen’s name floating around the trade market in spite of missing 37 of a possible 60 games so far this year, it’s a natural point of delineation. The Finn was acquired almost half a decade ago and donned the Flyers’ sweater for 257 games in that span. That’s a lot of miles on the tread in the name of Philadelphia.

In that time, Ristolainen has played for Alain Vigneault, Mike Yeo, John Tortorella, Brad Shaw and now Rick Tocchet. The defender has had a small army of defensive partners and he’s been paid out almost 80 percent of his $25.5 million dollar deal.

This begs the most important question: has Ristolainen been worth it?

Grading a player within the confines of a team that hasn’t finished higher than 6th in the Metropolitan division since Ristolainen won’t be easy, but we can operate with one common throughline: How good was Ristolainen in relation to his teammates.

The Context

It can be awfully challenging as a fan to separate the context of a player\'s acquisition from their eventual results. When a player, like Ristolainen, is so heavily tied to a front office, like Fletcher\'s, it can entirely end the debate. Becoming the poster child for an inept general manager is a tough sell and puts a player narratively behind the eight ball.

For the majority of Ristolainen’s tenure in Philadelphia, the blue liner has often profiled as a middle pair defenseman. The Finn has played as much as 21:26 per game and has often found himself around that 20 minute per game mark. Based on Ristolainen’s average usage in Philadelphia, he’s been the team’s fourth most commonly used defender during his five years.

While his even strength minutes are bookended by two 18 plus minute per game seasons, it’s the defender’s work on the penalty kill that’s gotten Ristolainen over the hump from second to third pair. Over the last five seasons, the Flyers’ penalty kill has finished on average 18th in the NHL.

Peeling back the layers further, beyond the second pair, there is more nuance in understanding Ristolainen’s role. It’s not just that he’s been a top-four defenseman, it’s also what he’s been asked to do in that spot.

Not once during Ristolainen’s time with the Flyers was he asked to play the majority of his ice time against other team’s first lines. On average, the Finn has spent 30.76 percent of his tenure playing against the other team’s best players. When we get to on ice metrics a little later, it doesn’t exactly paint the best picture.

During the span of that five year window, Ristolainen has gotten ample opportunity to play with the team’s best defensemen as well. While the last two seasons haven’t seen as much ice time, Ristolainen has spent four of the last five seasons with Travis Sanheim as one of his three most common defensive partners. Throw in the two years with Ivan Provorov earlier in the decade prior to the Russian’s trade to Columbus and you’ve got a pretty rosy role.

Second pair workload, decent puck-moving partners, matchups against middle sixers and considerable runway to make the contract Ristolainen signed in 2021 worthwhile, it’s hard not to feel like the Flyers could’ve probably gotten more out of his play.

Value and what it means

While the hockey analytics community is making progress, we as a collective have a lot of ways to go until we can get to where baseball is at present. The inputs in baseball are a lot more linear and there is a clear value hierarchy in the various actions a player can produce on offense, defense or pitching. While different statistical models put more weight in certain actions than others, there is a more overall coherence to the formulation.

With the hockey game state infinitely more chaotic and the data tracking not as detailed, trying to find a catch-all statistic usually tells an incomplete story. For example, the average Ristolainen season yielded the Flyers .54 wins above replacement. That number on its own doesn’t help you a whole lot, but when I tell you the average Cale Makar season over the latter’s career worth 2.77 wins above replacement, there’s greater perspective.

But, on the whole what makes Ristolainen interesting is the composition of where his value in formulating WAR comes from. In today’s offense first NHL where scoring is the name of the game and defensive defenseman is often a euphemism for defender bad at offense, Ristolainen has genuinely strung together strong defensive seasons as a Flyer.

The best amongst them came in 2022-2023 when he was one of the team’s best defenders across a variety of statistical categories, in particular when it came to limiting quality chances against.

The statistical profile here is interesting when considering quality vs quantity. Ristolainen limited chances, both at rate and quality while being on the ice for only 46.24 percent of goals for. Even though the Flyers controlled the game state at a high rate, it wasn’t a large share of the overall game. Meaning that Philadelphia didn’t play a lot of defense in Ristolainen’s minutes, but when they did the team conceded goals against.

In terms of tangible, counting numbers, the Flyers have never outscored their opponents in Ristolainen’s minutes at 5-on-5. For his career, Philadelphia has lost his 5-on-5 minutes 187-162 which checks out at 46.4 percent. Considering the quality of competition and his partners with passable underlying numbers, this is disappointing.

The cost and relativity

Ristolainen’s performance and production are all subjective to his particular situation. At $5.1 million per year, the defenseman has either been the second or third highest paid player at his position on the team. That’s a bit more expensive than Ristolainen’s usage, but it does reflect that the team has had younger blue liners jump him in the pecking order.

At $5.1 million, Ristolainen’s cap hit has been prohibitive at times. The Flyers have had a hard time procuring high end talent and with so few stars reaching unrestricted free agency, the team needed as much flexibility as possible to navigate the trade market.

In 2026, with one year remaining on the deal Fletcher signed Ristolainen to, the Flyers have gotten below average play in a tough team situation for an extended period of time. While Ristolainen never put up gaudy counting stats to make his cap hit more palatable, he is an intriguing opportunity for some team at this deadline.

The underlying numbers, especially when it comes to the quality of chances conceded against presents an interesting opportunity. Ristolainen hasn’t played a ton this year and is 31 years old. Improbable as it sounds, even after 799 NHL games, the defenseman hasn’t dressed for a single playoff game.

With the market not robust with options, Ristolainen is likely going to be someone’s gamble at this deadline to secure their back end. Flyer fans will likely begrudge Ristolainen for his role in prohibiting splashier moves under the Fletcher regime. He’s never been a star or played up to his physical tools.

And yet, looking at the numbers and the environment around Ristolainen, it\'s hard not to feel empathy. It wasn\'t the defenseman\'s choice for an unpopular GM to acquire him. Ironically, the most value Ristolainen may provide the Flyers is on his way out the door by Friday\'s deadline.

An underwhelming but not disastrously bad player paid above his production during a lost period isn\'t exactly the stuff of sports movies, but it\'s an honest bit of work.

Verdict: Properly Rated

Talking Points