The Week from Hell continues for the Flyers, as they face the second of three Stanley Cup contenders on a week-long road trip. On Tuesday they put up a solid showing against the Carolina Hurricanes, only for things to fall apart in the final minute; tonight, it’s the Tampa Bay Lightning.
The Lightning had quite an off season, trading Mikhail Sergachev to the Utah Utahs (that’s what we’re calling them) for Conor Geekie, JJ Moser, a 2025 second-round pick and a 2024 seventh-round pick; and sent Tanner Jeannot to the LA Kings for a 2025 second-round pick and 2024 fourth-round pick. They also reacquired Ryan McDonagh (and a 2024 fourth-round pick) from the Nashville Predators in exchange for a 2025 second-rounder and a 2024 seventh-round pick. Oh, and they signed Cam Atkinson.
That’s a lot of big moves, and it doesn’t even cover the headline: the Lightning did not re-sign their captain and franchise legend Steven Stamkos, who ended up joining the Preds, and instead signed Jake Guentzel to a $9-million AAV contract that runs through 2031. It was a stunning move that still doesn’t feel quite real, but the business of Tampa is winning, and they determined that Stamkos was no longer effective enough to keep the team in serious contention.
How’s that all worked out for the Lightning? To the surprise of no one, Tampa’s front office still gets it right more often than not: they’re 7-6-0 to start the season (though on a three-game losing streak), which is good enough for third in a surprisingly mediocre Atlantic Division. They are, as ever, a top-heavy team (though they might be lacking one of their stars tonight–more on that in a bit), but the early returns on the Guentzel signing are promising: he’s a point-per-game so far and right in line with what the Lightning were hoping for. Hart-finalist Nikita Kucherov has picked up right where he left off, and newly minted captain Victor Hedman is still killing it from the back end.
Still, there are cracks in their game–and one of the biggest is Andrei Vasilevskiy. Granted, he’s still fine, sporting a .903 save percentage and 2.59 goals-against average when goalie stats are down league wide as scoring is up, but these are not the elite numbers we’ve come to expect from the perennial Vezina contender. It’s led to some wild, high-scoring games where the Lightning have had to try and, uncharacteristically, outscore their problems–and that might be even more difficult going forward with Brayden Point questionable after sustaining an injury against the Winnipeg Jets on Sunday.
The Flyers, meanwhile, have injury struggles of their own. Cam York and Sam Ersson are still on unknown return timelines, though both are on the trip so a return to the lineup is possible. The more surprising absence is Ryan Poehling who, initially, was out of the lineup for a personal issue but has now been placed on injured reserve. The Flyers’ center depth was stretched to begin with, and Poehling’s absence means Noah Cates shifts back to center.
The big news, however, is that Matvei Michkov will see his first healthy scratch of the season:
We all knew this was going to happen at some point this season and, in fairness, Michkov’s play the last few games has not been great–he found himself benched for the second half of the third period against Carolina on Tuesday, after all. In that same Canes game, Michkov had an abysmal 19.38 expected Goals-for percentage, and his Corsi-for percentage was only a hair better at 20.00. Over the last five games (since losing to Montreal), Michkov’s averaged a 36.40 xGF%–that’s pretty bad! Maybe there’s an element of load management in this scratch as well, considering how sluggish he sometimes looks, but it’s being sold as a chance for Michkov to watch a game–and watching Nikita Kucherov in person might be beneficial to a prospect sometimes touted as “the next Kucherov.”
Players to Watch
Morgan Frost
At long last, Morgan Frost has scored a goal–it just took *checks notes* 13 games. Frost is about as streaky as they come when it comes to points (we all know the “over the final XX games of the season, Frost was the leading scorer narrative), so maybe that goal is the start of that improved scoring. Trouble is, if Frost is just a perennial late starter…what role does he fill? These next few games will be crucial for him and his future with the organization: to prove he can keep it rolling.
Jamie Drysdale
In Raleigh, John Tortorella scrambled his defensive pairs to get Yegor Zamula back in the lineup; as a result, Drysdale ended up opposite Travis Sanheim. One game isn’t enough to establish chemistry or draw serious conclusions, but they looked all right in their minutes together and, if York remains out, deserve another look–if only because Drysdale made some actual defensive plays. It’s an intriguing pair worth keeping together for a couple games.
Brandon Hagel
Hoo boy, has Brandon Hagel made a statement to start the season. He has seven goals and 14 points in 13 games, and has found incredible chemistry with Anthony Cirelli on the Lightning’s second line. We may not see them paired together at even strength tonight, as Cirelli is filling in for Point on the top line at the moment, but the Flyers will have to be careful if Hagel and Cirelli are reunited.
Projected Lineups
Philadelphia Flyers
Owen Tippett – Morgan Frost – Travis Konecny
Joel Farabee – Sean Couturier – Tyson Foerster
Anthony Richard – Scott Laughton – Bobby Brink
Nic Deslauriers – Noah Cates – Garnet Hathaway
Travis Sanheim – Jamie Drysdale
Nick Seeler – Rasmus Ristolainen
Emil Andrae – Erik Johnson
Aleksei Kolosov
(Ivan Fedotov)
Tampa Bay Lightning
Brandon Hagel – Anthony Cirelli – Nikita Kucherov
Jake Guentzel – Nick Paul – Mitchell Chaffee
Gage Goncalves – Conor Geekie – Cam Atkinson (hi, Cam!)
Zemgus Girgensons – Luke Glendening – Michael Eyssimont
Victor Hedman – JJ Moser
Ryan McDonagh – Erik Cernak
Emil Lilleberg – Nick Perbix
Andrei Vasilevskiy
(Jonas Johansson)
Gameday Tunes
It has been a woeful, exhausting week–and the gorgeous weather in November (it’s 75-degrees in Philadelphia today) and early sunsets (thanks, Daylight Saving Time) have been causing a bit of whiplash. This track started as a late-summer vibe, but has carried over well as an autumn trance.
Stats courtesy Natural Stat Trick
