Well whaddya know? The Flyers are riding a four-game point streak and are 3-0-1 heading into today’s match against the Buffalo Sabres, though they’ll be down a couple of important players. Let’s be real though: they had no business being in that game against Ottawa, let alone winning it (though the Matvei Michkov overtime winner ruled). If the Flyers bring that energy (or lack thereof) against the Sabres, they could get burned; Buffalo may be aggressively mediocre, but they do know how to score goals with the fourth most goals-for in the Eastern Conference.
It’s been a strange season-plus for the Sabres. In 2022-23, it looked like Buffalo was poised for a major step forward. They had a high-octane offense that scored so much it covered up weak goaltending and abysmal defensive play. Since then, the offense has practically disappeared, and even the return of Lindy Ruff–who turned the New Jersey Devils into a dynamic rush team–hasn’t brought a deluge of goals. Every year, it seems like they’ve finally got the talent, coaching, and/or goaltending to break the longest playoff drought in sports–and every season, they end up stumbling.
The 2024-25 season is no different. The Sabres are near the bottom of the Atlantic Division with an 8-8-1 record, though that doesn’t paint the whole picture as the Atlantic is pretty crowded behind the (second place) Toronto Maple Leafs. There’s a path for Buffalo to finally make the playoffs but, as they say, it is getting late early.
The good news in Buffalo is that Tage Thompson is back to being awesome, with 11 goals and 18 points through 16 games. The bad news is that Thompson has been out of the lineup with injury. Recently named captain Rasmus Dahlin has been, for the most part, fulfilling his end of the $11-million AAV contract that extends through the end of 2032, producing points and maintaining strong underlying numbers. There was a spell when Dahlin was viewed as a bust but, at age 24, it appears he’s coming into his own has a legit star defenseman. If there’s anything Flyers fans can take from that, it’s that it’s important to be patient with high-pedigree prospects who don’t light the league on fire from the jump.
What’s hampering Buffalo this time around is a lack of production from the other players signed to big contracts–namely Dylan Cozens, whose regression from last season has carried over into this one. The Sabres desperately need the 23-year old to rebound to the 31-goal, 68-point season he put together in 2022-23, or his $7.1-million AAV contract through 2030 is going to be an albatross in short order. On the back end, 21-year old Owen Power is rounding into form, producing points and getting a slight edge over opponents from a statistical standpoint, though not quite at the level you’d want for his $8.35-million contract that runs through 2031. There’s also the added-at-the-deadline Bo Byram, in the last year of a bridge deal signed with the Colorado Avalanche, who’s been hit-and-miss this season; he is just 23, though. Odds are, Power and Byram will figure out their games at some point–though maybe not fast enough to save the playoff hopes of Sabres fans.
Players to Watch
Tyson Foerster
It’s been a tough season for Foerster. he hasn’t scored in seven games and, unlike last year when he wasn’t scoring, the underlying play has fallen off a cliff. As a result, he’s seen his minutes and role reduced. Something’s going to have to give in Foerster’s game, so keep an eye on him to break out of this slump he’s in.
Morgan Frost
In a similar vein, Frost found himself healthy scratched against the San Jose Sharks–and the only reason he cracked the lineup against the Senators was a late scratch to Sean Couturier, who’s dealing with a minor injury. Did he do enough against Ottawa to retain his spot? Hard to say; at 5-on-5 Frost had a solid 62.50 xGF% and a breakeven 50.00 CF%–the only other Flyer to have a Corsi above 50-percent in that game was Bobby Brink.
Frost is in a tough spot. For the third straight year he’s started slow. That may just be who he is, but then you have to ask: is this the kind of player you want on your Stanley Cup-contending team several years from now? Probably not. If Frost doesn’t start pouring on the points by the end of November, his future with the team could be in serious jeopardy. Watch for him to prove he can still be a part of this, or that this very well could be the end of the road.
Rasmus Dahlin
The smooth skating captain of the Sabres is a blast to watch–and he’s truly elevated his 5-on-5 game to new heights, rocking a 59.52 CF% and a 56.49 xGF%, both of which are career bests. People have been sleeping on Dahlin for a while and, if the Sabres were a better team, he’d absolutely be in the Norris conversation. That is how good he is, and the Flyers will have their work cut out for them trying to keep him off the scoreboard.
Projected Lineups
Philadelphia Flyers
Owen Tippett – Morgan Frost – Travis Konecny
Joel Farabee – Scott Laughton – Bobby Brink
Anthony Richard – Ryan Poehling – Matvei Michkov
Tyson Foerster – Noah Cates – Garnet Hathaway
Emil Andrae – Travis Sanheim
Nick Seeler – Rasmus Ristolainen
Egor Zamula – Erik Johnson
Ivan Fedotov
(Aleksei Kolosov)
Buffalo Sabres
Zach Benson – Ryan McLeod – Alex Tuch
JJ Peterka – Dylan Cozens – Jack Quinn
Jiří Kulich – Peyton Krebs – Jason Zucker
Beck Malenstyn – Sam Lafferty – NAK
Rasmus Dahlin – Bowen Byram
Owen Power – Jacob Bryson
Dennis Gilbert – Connor Clifton
Devon Levi
(James Reimer)
Gameday Tunes
Matvei…are you really going to be this good? Truly? Wow, what a rush to have a player this talented on our beloved Philadelphia Flyers!
Stats via Natural Stat Trick
