Rick Tocchet’s Flyers one of most boring 3-on-3 teams in NHL history

The Philadelphia Flyers lost past regulation again over the weekend in New York, making it four losses in a row in games that end after 60 minutes. Overtime has never been a strong suit of the Flyers, but the addition of Trevor Zegras at least helped them steal a few extra points in the shootout earlier this season.

Zegras is now scoreless in his last three shootout attempts, as are the Flyers, who were stopped twice at Madison Square Garden by Igor Shesterkin after going 0-for-7 in two skills competitions against the Hurricanes the weekend prior.

Playing for the shootout seemed like a smart idea for the Flyers in overtime, and even sometimes late in regulation, but that is not the case as of late. And given how finicky shootout results can be, they can no longer hope for success there. Hope is not a strategy.

But it certainly seems like hope has been the Flyers\' lone strategy in overtime this season. The league has found a way to slow down 3-on-3 overtime into a boring, possession-based extra session, and the Flyers are major culprits of that.

It doesn\'t just feel like the Flyers are a boring overtime team; the stats prove it.

It has been 10 years since the NHL instituted 3-on-3 overtime, and the Flyers are one of the most boring teams in league history in the extra session.

For this exercise, we\'re looking at teams with at least 30 minutes of 3-on-3 ice time over the past 10 seasons, per Evolving-Hockey. This is to avoid extreme outliers in smaller sample sizes, and that data set is largely negligible. The lone team worth mentioning is this year\'s Calgary Flames, who have been even slower-paced than the Flyers in overtime this season, but only in 14 minutes.

Flyers are most boring 3-on-3 team in NHL history

Over the past 11 seasons, there have been 296 instances of a team playing at least 30 minutes of 3-on-3 in a season. The Flyers, like many teams, were a bit more run-and-gun in those early seasons, especially with the likes of Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, and Shayne Gostisbehere running the show.

Let\'s take a look at the Flyers\' performance at 3-on-3 in that span from an offensive perspective.

Season GP TOI CF/60 xGF/60 15-16 27 72.92 63.36 5.97 16-17 24 81 74.07 6.93 17-18 25 67.13 59.88 5.9 18-19 17 38.75 75.87 7.2 19-20 17 59.27 68.84 5.72 20-21 14 46.53 49 5 21-22 16 44.87 68.2 6.95 22-23 18 51.97 40.41 4.28 23-24 19 53.88 59.02 6.26 24-25 22 65.62 44.8 4.84

As the Flyers entered their retool and then finally called in a rebuild, the talent has dried up, and so has the excitement in overtime. Their 40.41 shot attempts per 60 minutes in the 2022-23 season ranks 12th lowest in league history, with last season\'s 44.8 just a bit lower at 29th worst.

While their expected goals rank the 40th-lowest and 91st-lowest in those seasons, respectively, it still isn\'t anything to write home about.

This season, the Flyers have sunk to another level entirely. They have generated just 29.79 shot attempts per 60 minutes and 2.60 expected goals per 60.

That 29.79 CF/60 mark ranks 296th out of 296 teams with at least 30 minutes of 3-on-3 time since the 2015-16 season, and only last year\'s Blackhawks had a lower xGF/60 (2.43).

Looking at the raw numbers, it gets pretty pathetic.

First, let\'s take a look at the league-worst scoring chances and high-danger scoring chances generated at 3-on-3 in each of the last 10 seasons.

Season Lowest SCF/60 Lowest HDCF/60 24-25 25.9 7.02 23-24 26.44 7.05 22-23 27.77 8.09 21-22 26.54 6.09 20-21 25.13 4.86 19-20 25.82 4.78 18-19 27.43 6.02 17-18 28.52 9.25 16-17 23.24 7.75 15-16 24.34 7.3

The 27.77 SCF/60 in the 2022-23 season is bolded to indicate that it was the Flyers who mustered that mark, with the shortened 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons italicized.

Even when overtime was run-and-gun early on, some teams still failed to generate much. Before moving on here, take a moment to pause, really take in those stats above, and try to take an educated guess at how the Flyers may be performing in generating scoring chances in overtime.

Ready?

Per Natural Stat Trick , the Flyers have generated just 17 scoring chances in 46:20 of 3-on-3 time, a 22.01/60 rate that ranks ahead of only those lowly Flames (16.59 SCF/60), and they\'ve been even worse at generating high-danger chances with just three for a league-low 3.88 HDCF/60.

Those would be the worst marks in the history of 3-on-3 overtime -- and it\'s not particularly close -- if the Flyers don\'t improve things.

For reference, the Islanders (37:39 TOI), Stars (27:26), Penguins (28:32), and Senators (28:28) all have double-digit high-danger chances at 3-on-3 this season. And those teams aren\'t exactly offensive juggernauts, so it\'s not a matter of high-end skill on display.

Are Flyers\' overtime woes a Rick Tocchet problem?

When a team is as bad at generating chances in overtime as the Flyers are, the first look has to go at the head coach. Tocchet has been criticized for his usage of some players in overtime -- we\'ll get to that later --, so let\'s take a look at how his teams have historically performed at generating chances at 3-on-3.

Season SCF/60 HDCF/60 17-18 (ARI) 48.25 (11th) 17.1 (16th) 18-19 (ARI 32.49 (30th) 6.02 (31st) 19-20 (ARI) 32.25 (27th) 4.78 (31st) 20-21 (ARI 29.63 (31st) 11.11 (27th) 22-23 (VAN w/o Tocchet) 49.32 (9th) 14.09 (24th) 22-23 (VAN) 54.1 (8th) 17.45 (20th) 23-24 (VAN) 47.33 (6th) 16.79 (13th) 24-25 (VAN) 39.44 (19th) 13.97 (18th) 22-23 season is split for all teams at Tocchet\'s hiring date of January 22

It\'s hard to compare a lowly team like the Coyotes to a team with a weapon like Quinn Hughes in overtime, but even those Canucks teams didn\'t light the world on fire. They still lacked the high-danger chances, seeing a decline from 8th in scoring chances to 20th in Tocchet\'s first season and then 6th to 13th.

Unfortunately, we can\'t really make any definitive conclusions from this. Does Tocchet tend to play a slower style in overtime? Anecdotally, and so far this season in Philadelphia, yes, but when he has a few weapons to use as he did early on his tenure in Vancouver, his team can generate chances with the best of them.

However, looking at this year\'s Flyers team, it seems more than fair to question Tocchet\'s aptitude in overtime.

Matvei Michkov, Flyers\' skill players deserve more 3-on-3 time

Tocchet has largely leaned on just a small handful of players to take the ice in overtime.

Starting with the defensemen, it\'s Travis Sanheim leading the way with 18:45, Jamie Drysdale just behind him at 17:19, and then a big dropoff to Cam York (6:10) and Emil Andrae (4:09). Sanheim is easily the Flyers\' best defenseman, so it makes sense that Tocchet trusts him with so much open ice, but Andrae seeing the least ice time is a bit confusing.

It certainly doesn\'t help that Andrae was up and down from Lehigh Valley to begin the season, but he\'s earned the trust of Tocchet over the past few weeks, and he\'s exactly the type of defenseman that you would expect to thrive in overtime. There is so much open ice at 3-on-3 that he should be able to make plays with his skating and puck skills, along with his hockey IQ.

It\'s an extremely small sample size, but the Flyers have generated 43.37 shot attempts per 60 with Andrae on the ice at 4-on-4 compared to 32 with Sanheim, 27.72 with Drysdale, and 19.41 with the defensive York.

Funnily enough, despite only playing just over four minutes, Andrae is the only Flyers defenseman to be on the ice for multiple high-danger scoring chances in overtime. Drysdale was on the ice for the other one, with Sanheim and York yet to help generate a high-danger chance at 3-on-3.

Andrae absolutely deserves more ice time in overtime, especially on the fly when Philadelphia is circling back with possession of the puck.

It\'s understandable that Tocchet wants to lean on Sanheim and Drysdale as the top two defensive options in overtime, but let\'s hope that Andrae starts getting a shift or two to help generate some offense in the extra session.

There is a lot more debate to be had about the forwards, though.

Trevor Zegras is the Flyers\' top forward option in overtime with 18:25 of ice time, nearly two minutes more than Travis Konecny (16:31). Those two probably should be your top two guys with the open ice in overtime, so no qualms there.

After that, it gets confusing.

Sean Couturier (10:22), Owen Tippett (9:52), and Noah Cates (9:46) are all around the same usage, with Christian Dvorak (8:26) seeing more time now with Tyson Foerster (6:49) out for the season. Notably absent among the Flyers\' top-seven forwards in overtime is Matvei Michkov, and less so Bobby Brink.

Michkov is having a sophomore slump. Anyone who has watched more than a few Flyers games or has taken in some of his quotes, as well as the discussion around him, knows that. He hasn\'t been trusted at 5-on-5, which is fine, but overtime is a different story.

Tocchet needs to utilize Michkov more in overtime. Plain and simple. Even if his numbers haven\'t been great in overtime (Flyers out-attempted 6-4 in his 6:24, out-chanced 6-2), they aren\'t a ton worse than some of the most-trusted veteran forwards.

While Michkov is the main point of contention, Brink\'s usage is surprising as well. He\'s shown bursts of speed throughout the season and is one of the Flyers\' more creative offensive players.

In just 5:27 of 3-on-3 time, Brink has been on the ice for three shots on goal and just one against. For comparison, the Flyers have been outshot 10-2 with Zegras on the ice, 5-1 with Cates on the ice, and 7-1 with Tippett on the ice.

Brink has also helped the Flyers to four scoring chances during his limited time, just one behind Zegras, and the diminutive forward has proved to be strong enough defensively to trust in overtime.

And it\'s not as if the Flyers\' trusted veterans aren\'t making key mistakes in overtime. In fact, almost all of the Flyers\' overtime losses came directly after bad plays by those top-used skaters.

Zegras had the bad change against Ottawa; he and York combined for a turnover against the Oilers, and then there was the bad turnover by Konecny that coincided with Couturier not marking Mark Stone on the Golden Knights\' winner.

If those plays are going to happen anyway, let\'s at least open things up for the offensive-minded players.

What should Flyers\' 3-on-3 lines look like?

Nothing the Flyers have done in overtime is working. And since we\'re criticizing what Tocchet has done so far, let\'s try to build out a few overtime combinations that could work.

The opening faceoff is hugely important in overtime, so you\'re going to want someone with a good chance to win it who you also trust if they happen to lose the draw. Dvorak (55%) and Couturier (54.5%) are the two best faceoff guys on the team, but the latter lacks the necessary speed in overtime.

For my money, I would start Couturier, Konecny, and Sanheim in overtime, with Zegras ready to hop over the boards for the captain as soon as possible.

The defenseman pecking order is the easiest, with Drysdale next in line after Sanheim. After that, let\'s use Andrae on the fly or for an offensive zone draw, with York an option for a defensive situation.

After Zegras and Konecny, the next forward duo should include Michkov or Tippett -- or quite possibly both. That leaves them exposed for a faceoff if they take an icing, but that\'s a risk that you take.

Of course, if there is a faceoff or defensive situation, Dvorak and Cates become two of the next guys up. Cates is still one of the Flyers\' best defensive players, and Dvorak can win a draw and chip in offensively.

Then you can mix in Brink depending on the situation. If it\'s a back-and-forth overtime with few whistles, he\'s a good guy to have on your third duo to use his speed and skill against the opposition\'s depth players.

Basically, the Flyers need to play to win more than not to lose in overtime. They\'ve been playing it safe in overtime, and that works if you\'re fully confident in the shootout, but they\'ve now lost three straight with no goals on nine attempts.

Talking Points