A whole lot has been made of the goaltending for the Philadelphia Flyers. Somehow, this team has found a solution to their ongoing problem in Dan Vladar, and even if it’s a short-term one that we have no idea how it is going to look year-to-year, for the time being he’s the solidifier in between the pipes.
Vladar’s arrival has made us all look and see what this roster can do with someone capable of saving more than 90 percent of the shots that they face and it’s frankly been absurdly too long since we’ve been able to see that. Goaltending has sunk this team and unfortunately, the face of that downturn and misfortune of having some of the worse performances in modern NHL history in the crease, is Sam Ersson.
Last season, it was terrible — an .883 save percentage as Ersson was the best option for the Flyers which reflects in his 45 starts — but somehow, with a true starter ahead of him for the first time in multiple years and the opportunity to relax in more of a backup role, his numbers have gotten worse. This season, it’s a nightmarish .867 save percentage in 31 appearances for Ersson.
But, for some reason, he has been really, really great as of late.
In his last seven starts for this team, which dates back to Feb. 26, the 26-year-old netminder has posted a .913 save percentage which has caused the team to go 5-2-0 with him in the crease. Now, the defense in front of him is making it somewhat easy as the Flyers are averaging just 18 shots on goal against during those seven starts, but it is certainly not nothing to see that finally Ersson appears to be stringing together some positive performances.
Which, in turn, makes us only question what the heck was going on earlier in the season. Was it the uncertainty that Dan Vladar would be the starter above him? Was it something that goalie coach Kim Dillabaugh said to make it finally all click? No one can know for certain, but Ersson has been given a whole lot more trust and it is coming at the right time.
Sam Ersson is playing for his Flyers job for the rest of the season
Ersson is a pending restricted free agent and will need a new contract this summer from the Flyers. But, earlier this season it was looking like he is the most obvious candidate for the team to move on from, and not send him a qualifying offer to then just let him walk and head to unrestricted free agency to look for a new opportunity somewhere else.
That was almost certainly going to be the conclusion of Ersson’s eight years within the Flyers organization after being a fifth-round pick all the way back in 2018. Arriving to the NHL, being one of the worst statistical netminders in the league, and then parting ways. But could that all change with the way that Ersson has been playing?
Especially considering that the expectation is for him to just be a stable backup. To play about 35 to 40 percent of the games and maybe finish with something around an .890 save percentage — which is just below the league-average .896 this season. Just be there and not be the reason why the Flyers lose multiple games.
But the main question is now whether or not the Flyers would be comfortable with running back this same tandem that still equated to an underperforming duo. It all depends how much they buy into this recent run for Ersson — is it really him or is it just that the team in front of him is looking a whole lot better and playing more structured to give him the best opportunity possible, and he’s making the saves that he’s expected to.
And now, he’s getting the crease for one of the biggest games of the season.
Ersson in net in massive opportunity vs. Devils
Look, we know that we keep on saying that this next Flyers game is one of the biggest of the season, but after they have gone on this very successful stretch and are now holding onto a playoff spot, every single point that contributes to them keeping it matters so much. So when they lace up on Tuesday night against the rival New Jersey Devils, with the several other teams still having a fighter’s chance to rip that playoff spot out of their hands at the last second, they better win.
By the numbers, according to MoneyPuck, with a win Tuesday night, the Flyers’ playoff odds soar to 70.3 percent, but if they end up losing in regulation and get zero points from the game, it sinks to just 36.6 percent. It’s certainly better than where they are at, but having over a 15 percent swing in both directions, depending on the result, is truly a massive test for Ersson.
It would be impossible to ride out the remaining five games of the season with Vladar starting them all and giving the Flyers a better chance at a win. But considering the upcoming opponents after New Jersey — a more-crucial game against the Red Wings, then a hot Jets team, and then a nightmare back-to-back against the Hurricanes and the Canadiens — now might be the obvious time to put in one of Ersson’s starts.
It’s against the worst opponent of the bunch (who still has Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier and Jesper Bratt) and far enough away from the end of the season that the Flyers can at least rescue a clunker of a game and give themselves the best chance possible to get right back into the playoff race if they end up losing on Tuesday.
All in all, this mess of a two-sided season from Ersson and needing to hand him some starts down the biggest stretch of Flyers hockey in the last few years, should spell out if the team even wants to think for a second about bringing him back.
If Ersson goes out and stands on his head for two more starts, finishing the season with nine very solid games and being a big reason why the Flyers were able to punch their ticket to the playoffs; could general manager Danny Briere be open to re-signing the 26-year-old goalie? It’s tough to consider when still looking at the full picture of the season and seeing that Ersson’s save percentage is still well below even an .880 — but maybe there could be something here that he is considered a third-stringer rather than a guaranteed backup, but that could get messy with Aleksei Kolosov and Carson Bjarnason needing starts down in the AHL.
It might just be best — no matter how well he plays for the rest of the season — if there is a parting of ways and we all thank him for having his best month ever for his last games in the Orange and Black. No matter what, there is an upgrade needing to happen in the crease for the Flyers this summer, and it might just be needed that the Flyers and Briere let go one of their guys that they tried their hardest to develop into an NHL goaltender.
Ersson will have to earn the win Tuesday night first, though.
