It has been repeated ad nauseam. This upcoming Philadelphia Flyers season is all about finding out. Finding out how these young players are going to develop further in the NHL and how some other, younger, prospects will look when they first take the ice in the best league in the world.
We can go on and on about the younger players — Tippett earning his contract, Foerster becoming a dominant two-way forward, Frost sticking as a top-six center — but something that has not been discussed enough is that this is also a season of finding out about the older veterans on this team, as well. And one key cog that can determine how this whole thing goes, is Scott Laughton.
With Laughton, it’s tricky. You almost need to separate what he does on the ice and what he brings off the ice. The 30-year-old forward has been heralded the last couple years for his leadership and being such a presence in the community. From his efforts to support LGBTQ+ fans and the Flyers’ efforts in that arena, to being praised as a leader in the locker room — Laughton’s ability to be priceless off the ice is something we all need to consider when discussing building this team.
But, unfortunately, the last couple of years of the Scott Laughton Experience during the actual games that matter, has not gone as swimmingly as it has in the past. For him to make his mark on this team and really hold his own spot on the roster, he will need to step up his performance for the 2024-25 season in a big way.
As he has gotten older, Laughton’s offensive production has rested comfortably in a sort of plateau for where he is in the lineup. In all situations, Laughton scored 1.82 points per 60 minutes last season. The year before that, it was virtually the same at 1.81, and in 2021-22, we actually saw a lower number in 1.64 points per 60 minutes, and it was even worse the year before that. His total and raw rate of production has actually increased and the same goes for other things that he is able to do on the ice.
A steady increase over the last four years — each year being better than the last — in his individual expected goal rate, his shot attempt rate, his unblocked shot attempts, and his rebounds created, demonstrates that at least his offense isn’t going anywhere. He was never the most skilled player on the ice to begin with, but if he plays all 82 games, it doesn’t feel alien to predict that he will be hovering around 40 points by season’s end.
And maybe a solid portion of that will come shorthanded. It feels weird to point out and might be unbelievable, but last season, Laughton led the entire NHL in shorthanded points with eight of his 39 coming on the penalty kill. A whole lot of his innate offensive value comes shorthanded — he is able to find those gaps and get his penalty-killing partner Travis Konecny to score a heck of a lot of goals with one fewer player on the ice.
When it comes to the raw numbers and what we see within seconds of wanting to learn more about Laughton’s performances, he appears to be an above-average bottom-six forward. But, unfortunately, when it comes to the underlying numbers and general play at everything else on the ice — the things that usually affect the entire result of a game, instead of getting on the scoreboard — Laughton has been sinking.
In an ideal world, the bottom six is made up of guys who score roughly the amount that Laughton has done recently, but is also very good in all three zones of the ice. They don’t have the amount of skill and endurance it takes to stick on a top-six line or in a prominent role, but they can support where they can and typically, that is seen in the underlying numbers. Maybe the most ideal fourth-line forward one can think of is Garnet Hathaway. Someone who has decent hands, can score when needed, but primarily, he is just a driver and is able to suppress the opposing player’s middle-six to evening out in terms of scoring chances.
In his first year as a Flyer, Hathaway essentially split the game in half with the opponent. A 50.61% of the on-ice shot attempt share and a 55.96% expected goals share at 5-on-5, spell out an incredibly effective player underneath the raw points and plays. That is what you want to see from a bottom-six forward — and he can punch dudes in the face, too.
Hathaway has consistently been that in his nine years of NHL experience. Laughton, has produced a little more offense, but has been nowhere near the consistent playdriver as Hathaway has been and still is. Laughton earned 45.52% of the on-ice shot attempt share and 44.29% of the expected goals share at 5-on-5 last season. Obviously, in comparison to Hathaway and it’s a wide enough margin to know that the Flyers had a much worse time when Laughton was on the ice than his older counterpart.
In almost every category you can find on any standard hockey analytics website — shot attempts, unblocked shot attempts, expected goals, scoring chances, etc. — Laughton’s numbers are below 50%, meaning that the opposing team has regularly gotten the upper hand with him on the ice. That is not good, and not really good enough, even if this team isn’t striving to win the division.
Despite trade rumors circling for over a year now, Laughton remains on this team. His value is what he brings off the ice, and establishing a culture good enough that the team boasts about it, but what is really next? The 30-year-old’s contract expires after next season, so logically teams might be buzzing around to see if he can contribute to two potential playoff runs — or, the Flyers are going to try to keep him around for two significant seasons as they begin to transition more and more young talent on to the roster.
Before this summer, that was what everyone kind of assumed. They would either trade Laughton for a decent haul, or just let his contract expire and say thank you for being in this organization for over a decade. It is increasingly becoming more and more likely, that since they are not doing anything right now, that they want to keep him around for even longer and for him to become a Flyer For Life.
For that to happen, Laughton just simply needs to match his decent offensive production to not handing the other team the majority of scoring chances whenever he is on the ice. Because, we know players are coming and competing for his spot.
We are already seeing it this year, Noah Cates had a down year last season but if he regains control and is half as good offensively as he is defensively, then he should overtake Laughton in the depth chart. Beyond that, players like Olle Lycksell and the free agent signee Anthony Richards is battling for a depth spot too. And that’s not even mentioning Jett Luchanko potentially being a third-line center at 18 years old and forcing Laughton down to the fourth line.
All it might take is a free agent to play much better, or for Laughton to take a slight step back and we start to question why exactly he is here if the team wants to win some hockey games.
Laughton needs to be better this season, or he could be finding himself in a precarious position before all 82 games are played.
