When the Philadelphia Flyers put up a lackluster effort in their Game 4 loss on Saturday night, lineup changes were to be expected. So when Rick Tocchet showcased a new group of forwards and defensemen at practice on Sunday, that wasn’t much of a surprise.
However, some were caught off guard by Matvei Michkov being the odd man out of the lineup, with fellow youngster Alex Bump replacing him on the third line.
Of course, as we saw all season long, whenever the discourse about Michkov picked up, there were immediate overreactions to the decision on both sides.
But for as good as Michkov has shown he can — and will — be, he has had his struggles through his first four games in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. That’s a fact. So, unfortunately for Michkov, making him a healthy scratch was probably the right move for Tocchet and the Flyers.
Scratching Matvei Michkov in Game 5 is right move for Flyers
Let’s first start with Tocchet’s explanation of why he scratched Michkov, which we wrote about on Sunday evening.
“I just think he’s part of the young group. Barkey went through it a little bit, Bump a little bit. Not hit the wall, but you got a plateau,” Tocchet said after practice on Sunday. “There’s a lot of pace in the playoffs, and you’re looking for that sort of stuff from the young guys. Not just to pick on them, but I’m just saying. I think it’s okay to evaluate them every once in a while, give them a rest and stuff, whether it’s Matvei or whether it’s Bump, it really doesn’t matter. I think that’s the way you develop players.”
That absolutely tracks for Michkov, as the 21-year-old forward has yet to put up a point in this series. He is just one of three Flyers players to not record a point, along with Tyson Foerster and defenseman Emil Andrae.
Now, not finding the scoresheet in four games isn’t necessarily a fair representation of a player’s performance, but the underlying metrics are also poor for Michkov, which match what most people have seen via the eye test.
Michkov has generated just 0.09 expected goals on five shot attempts, three of which have hit the net, but only one was dangerous enough to be deemed a scoring chance, per Natural Stat Trick. All of those numbers are at 5-on-5, and his all-situations numbers don’t look a ton better with one more shot on goal, which was a scoring chance that generated 0.07 expected goals.
The Russian’s 0.09 ixG at 5-on-5 is the sixth-lowest among Flyers skaters in this series, ahead of only Noah Juulsen, Emil Andrae, Luke Glendening, Nick Seeler, and Garnet Hathaway. That’s not great company for someone whose calling card is their offense.
The possession numbers are even worse. The Penguins have out-attempted the Flyers 40-18 in Michkov’s 31:10 at 5-on-5, for a 31.03% shot attempt share for the Flyers forward, and a 36.98% expected goals share.
To put that in perspective a bit, without Michkov on the ice, the Flyers have a shot attempt share of 42.74%, which isn’t great, but it’s nearly a dozen percentage points higher than with the winger on the ice. And when you look at the quality of the chances, the Flyers’ expected goals share is close to 50% with Michkov off the ice, with the Penguins holding a 5.13 to 5.08 xG advantage in that situation.
On top of all of that, Michkov has also taken three penalties — although he’s also drawn two — with two giveaways and no takeaways. He’s been hesitant with the puck on his stick, failing to either clear the zone or get the puck in deep at times.
You’d be hard-pressed to argue that Michkov hasn’t been a net negative when he’s on the ice for the Flyers.
Now, you may be able to build a case that Tocchet hasn’t put Michkov in the best position to succeed, as pairing him with a defense-first center in Noah Cates and another young winger in Denver Barkey isn’t exactly his ideal fit, but he also hasn’t done anything to warrant being moved up in the lineup. And that’s really what it comes down to, especially in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Michkov sitting is not the end of the world for Flyers
In a seven-game series where everything is magnified, Michkov’s struggles have been front and center in all four games thus far. The Flyers were able to mask them with the rest of the lineup playing some of their best hockey of the season, but when it was time for a lineup change, Michkov’s name was atop the shortlist.
But it’s important to remember that this isn’t the end-all be-all for Michkov. This doesn’t mean that he isn’t a playoff performer or a bust or anything even remotely close to that.
This is a 21-year-old forward who wasn’t even supposed to be in North America yet. He’s been under the microscope since setting foot in Philadelphia two summers ago, and still managed 20 goals and 51 points during a sophomore slump.
So while we all want to see Michkov succeed and be in the lineup in the playoffs, growing pains are expected for young players. Hopefully, a one-game reset for Michkov to watch the pace and intensity of playoff hockey from above can get him back to where he needs to be to be effective for the Flyers for the rest of the playoffs and beyond.
