How are we feeling about that surprise 13th overall pick?
No, Jett Luchanko wasn’t the consensus choice that early in the draft, with plenty of doubters the night he was picked (myself included), and many who still doubt the selection. However, many of us (myself once again included), have come around on Luchanko — and his preseason with the Flyers should silence any remaining naysayers. In fact, he’s been the most exciting player not named Matvei Michkov on the Flyers’ camp roster, and already looks the part of a decent pro player.
So why shouldn’t he make the team? Yesterday, my colleague Ryan Gilbert argued Jett should make the opening night roster, and I’m here to rain on everyone’s parade and say he should be returned to the Guelph Storm prior to opening night. A quick note before we dive in though: I’m not opposed to a tryout to start the season, but becoming the go-to third-line center for the Flyers for the entire season? That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense; the fact he’s been able to stick this long at such a young age is an achievement by itself.
What’s been so impressive about Jett’s game are the details — he looks like a seasoned two-way pro out there most of the time. However, as preseason’s gone on, his numbers have gotten less impressive: no goals and two assists in four games played; 19 scoring chances for at 5-on-5, 28 against; 40.40% of the on-ice shot attempt share. There are bright spots (52.09% of the expected goal share; 58.06 faceoff percentage), but they aren’t enough to outweigh the drags.
The most obvious thing Luchanko needs work on is his scoring — his shot, in particular, but being able to convert on chances at the professional level overall. If he made the team right now, he’d make a perfectly cromulent third-line center, and would slowly but surely make his way up the lineup. This is about the long game, though — not the immediacy of the shiny new toy — and we should expect (or at least want) more from the Flyers’ most recent first-round pick.
There are, for lack of a better word, “intangibles” that Jett could only develop by rejoining the Storm, and not as a third-liner on the Flyers. The Storm are not very good; they made the playoffs last year but were pretty quickly bounced, and are likely to have a similar experience this year (perfect opportunity for the nine-game tryout in the spring!). On that team, Luchanko will be the guy, the all-situations first-line center who has to sink or swim and deal with being the target of every opposition’s best defensive players, all while (hopefully) leading the forward group in time on ice.
He wouldn’t be learning to handle those situations as a depth player on an NHL roster, potentially in a rotation with other forwards. If the Flyers believe this guy could be a top-six center — or even a first-line center — it’s in their best interests to let him have at least another year of development in junior in a role that would better prepare him for the trials and tribulations of a forward on the top line. Another year in juniors would also allow his contract to slide and, long term, prolonging the start to his entry-level contract to 2025 or 2026 benefits the Flyers from a cap perspective as well.
Finally, his play: Luchanko started strong, but has lagged considerably — and Tuesday’s game was his worst yet. The shot attempt differential while he was on the ice was 5-19, but that wasn’t the worst part: Luchanko took a sloppy penalty late in the game that led directly to a Bruins power-play goal. That penalty won’t make-or-break his chances of making the roster in isolation, but it’s the sort of straw that breaks the camel’s back. Luchanko had a good camp, but didn’t pop enough to warrant a roster spot.
If Luchanko gets a couple games to start the season, it’s not the end of the world, and I’ll be excited to see him play in games that count — but it may not be best for his development. This is a rebuild, after all, one that could take some time to get right. There’s no reason to rush one of your higher end prospects when the competitive window is not yet open, and keeping Luchanko in the OHL for at least another year is probably best for both his development and the Flyers’ long term goal of winning a Stanley Cup.
