Should we be worried about Michkov’s rookie season?

We could give you the short answer, but judging by the reaction from fans online lately, we think a longer dive into this might be necessary. Forty-two games in, the Flyers are just over halfway through Matvei Michkov’s rookie season, and it’s time to take a look at how it’s gone so far. We’ll examine all your concerns, from his slump to his overall performance, to linemates, to coaching, and in doing so we\'ll hopefully set your mind at ease about where our beloved rookie is at.

Firstly, it’s important to remember it hasn’t been a bad performance by any means! Twelve goals and 17 assists in 39 games is nothing to sniff at for a rookie. Even with his current slump, Michkov is still second in both points and goals amongst rookies. So despite his struggles and the catastrophizing online, he’s very much still in the Calder conversation. Keep the faith, people. It\'s like Tinkerbell; the power of our sheer belief will make him score.

But let\'s talk more about this scoring slump. It began after the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets on December 10, where Michkov scored two points. After that, he had no points all the way up until December 29, when he broke the drought with a goal and an assist against the Los Angeles Kings. So Michkov went 19 days and seven games without a point. Even if you consider the slump to be ongoing after the last four games saw Michkov held off the scoreboard again, that’s still only 12 games.

We know those 12 games are a lot when you’re a fan, sitting at home and watching and waiting for a Michkov goal every game, we really do. We do it too! But while it’s frustrating, it’s important to remember this is not some grim omen for his future career, or a sign that he lacks talent. We know as Flyers fans, you have been burned before when it comes to promising young talent, but this is by no means unprecedented. There’s another generationally talented NHL player who had a slump exactly like this in his rookie season, and we don’t even have to go back that far to find him.

Back in the 2016-17 season, a rookie Auston Matthews went 12 games with just two points, a drought that lasted from October 27 all the way until November 19. We think we can all agree he got over that. He went on to win the Calder that year with 69 points in 82 games. These slumps happen to even the best of the best, whether it’s adjusting to the pace of the game and the rigors of the season, or simply rotten snakebitten luck (which would hardly be unusual for a Flyer).

But the thing that should really alleviate your concerns are Michkov’s underlying metrics. Even as he’s struggled with scoring, some of the rookie’s underlying numbers have remained encouraging. We’ve gathered three sets of his 5-on-5 advanced stats from this season: a set from early October up to December 10, a set for his 12-game slump, and finally his overall stats this season.

Now, one of those encouraging numbers is not Michkov’s on-ice Goals-for percentage (GF%), which painfully reflects his scoring downturn. In his last 12 games it’s dropped to a team-lowest 19 percent, a stark contrast to earlier in the season when he was third on the team with 56.16 GF%. His shooting percentage (sh%) has also dropped, from 9.55 percent to just a dismal 4.32 percent. However, his expected goals-for percentage (xGF%) actually increased, from 53.97 percent to 63.18 percent, putting him fifth on the team.

Here’s some other good news: Michkov’s Corsi for percentage (CF%) has also improved, going from 46.6 percent to 54.72 percent, fourth on the team. This is a really reassuring sign that even as his scoring has dropped, Michkov is still valuable at both ends of the ice. His CF% and his xGF% show he’s still a net positive when it comes to puck control and generating strong chances. It’s really a best case scenario for a slump; he’s learning and improving while still contributing! It won’t be long before that turns into individual points again, particularly after his career high eight shots on goal against Toronto on Tuesday.

STAT 5-on-5 (Oct. 1 - Dec 10) 5-on-5 (Dec. 10 - Jan. 8) 5-on-5 (2024-25 Overall) GF% 56.16% 19% 40.64% SF% 50.56% 51.37% 50.11% CF% 46.6% 54.72% 48.19% Sh% 9.55% 4.32% 7.89% xGF% 53.97% 63.18% 55.17% Stats accurate as of Jan. 8 2025. Source: evolving-hockey.com

Now we come to coaching. Ol’ John ‘the Paper Italian’ Tortorella can be a polarizing figure to say the least. We all know his \"contentious\" reputation as a coach, so it’s not surprising that some fans have been anti-Torts since the day he signed on as head coach in 2022. The results he pulled from a pretty average roster last season won many over, but controversial coaching decisions like the scratching of newly appointed captain Sean Couturier alienated many too. But a scratched captain has nothing on the worries people have about his handling of Matvei Michkov.

Things went pretty smoothly at first, but when Michkov was scratched for two games in early November, fans were livid. Even some who’d previously been supportive began voicing concerns about if Tortorella was the right coach to shape the 20-year-old into the NHL star the Flyers so desperately need. As Michkov’s scoring has dipped, the minutiae of every coaching choice has become a cause for panic; the scratchings, the benchings, powerplay minutes, emphasis on defense and more. Folks. We’ve got to breathe. It’s time to try and reassure you that Tortorella is not irrevocably ruining the rookie.

The first thing you need to know is that John Tortorella is like a cat– his love language involves a healthy amount of scratching. It was never going to be a question of if he scratched Michkov, but rather when and why. If we take him at his word (and we will, for now), it wasn’t malicious ; he really believed it would benefit Michkov to sit for a game or two. And like it or not, it did seem to work. In the five games before he was scratched, the rookie had one point. After he returned, he had two goals and three assists in five games.

When it comes to ice time and specialty teams, Tortorella has a clear policy: the players decide their own minutes. If you want that ice time or top six spot, you have to play your way into it, and that applies to everyone, regardless of if they’re captain or baby phenom. When Michkov was visibly struggling in the recent game against Anaheim, Tortorella benched him for a period. In games where he’s struggled on the powerplay, Tortorella has moved him to the second unit. When he’s looked tired or played poorly or made mistakes, Tortorella has reduced his minutes. Just like everybody else.

And you can absolutely disagree with that! Maybe you think \"Well, the powerplay sucks anyway, why not throw Michkov out there and maybe he’ll make something interesting happen.\" Maybe you think the best development approach is to give him full top line minutes and let him play through it all, sink or swim. Or maybe for you, it’s as simple as more ice time equals more scoring opportunities results in the first Flyers’ Calder winner. Hey, it\'d be nice! But Tortorella wasn’t hired for that. He was hired to instill winning habits into this team that will take them all the way. This coach isn’t looking at the Calder– he’s looking at the Cup.

That Anaheim game where Michkov was benched in the third period? We were all sure he’d be scratched next game, but he wasn’t. He came out against the Kings and broke his drought with a goal and an assist. It was the same after his two-game scratch. Clearly, Michkov is responding to Tortorella\'s coaching and Tortorella is seeing that and adapting in return, as much as a man like that can. He’s trying, in his own way, to make the young winger into a long-term successful NHL player, to make him disciplined and well-rounded and able to thrive in this league. He said as much to The Athletic\'s Kevin Kurz not two weeks ago:

https://twitter.com/KKurzNHL/status/1873516694100173012

Additionally, by treating Michkov like any other player, by not making exceptions for him, Tortorella is likely keeping some of the pressure off the kid. The weight of a franchise on a 20-year-old’s shoulder is a heavy burden to bear. He needs time to adapt and develop, and that’s a lot easier if he’s just one of the team and has a good relationship with his teammates. If the star rookie comes in and suddenly he’s the only player exempt from the coach’s clear ‘earn your ice time’ policy, it doesn’t particularly engender warm fuzzy feelings and camaraderie in the locker room.

John Tortorella is not perfect. You don\'t need us to tell you that, but we will anyway. His approach to developing Michkov can be very frustrating for fans who want to see him set the league on fire every night. But it’s clearly not hurting the young Russian- his advanced stats show that even through his slump, he’s improving under this coach, developing the nitty gritty aspects of his game that don’t come as naturally to him. We promise Tortorella is not trying to turn the kid into a goon; he’s just teaching him the things that will pay off in the long term.

Finally, we come to linemates, and on this one, we can’t offer quite as much reassurance. Ovechkin had Backstrom. Hull had Oates. Matthews has Marner. Michkov has A Problem. He undeniably needs a talented center, one who can keep pace with him, read his plays and follow through on his incredible setups. They’ve tried him with Morgan Frost. They’ve tried him with Sean Couturier. The last few games they’ve thrown Scott Laughton on the wing with Frost at center, and that’s been a little promising. But everyone and their mother is well aware these lines aren’t the Flyers’ future.

Quality top-six NHL centers sadly do not grow on trees, or we would already be planting an orchard. You’re looking at a rare and pricey trade, or you’re drafting high and crossing your fingers. The Flyers have done the latter with 18-year-old prospect Jett Luchanko. He performed admirably in the preseason, surprising many by earning a roster spot for four regular season games before he was sent back to the OHL for further development. But, oh, while he was up, what glittering visions of the future top line we had.

But even with Luchanko, there’s no guarantees. What if, for whatever reason, it doesn’t work out? Who’s the alternative for Michkov– Noah Cates? Two months ago you’d have laughed in our faces if we said that, but it doesn’t sound quite as stupid now. Of course the Flyers can’t try it right now, because we’d all rather cut off a finger than split up the Foerster-Cates-Brink line. But there’s also no guarantee that this isn’t just an aberration from Cates. Even if it isn\'t, the Flyers would still be lacking down the middle.

No, this comes down to the general manager. If the Flyers want to see Michkov reach his full potential and the team become a real contender, Danny Brière needs to acquire a solid top six centre. It doesn’t need to be right now. It doesn’t even need to be by the trade deadline. This is, as has been hammered into us, an evaluation year. The young winger on a line with Frost or Couturier for a year isn\'t exciting, but it’s also not a disaster. He’s still more than capable of producing on a less than stellar line. But sometime in the next year would be nice, Danny, thanks.

There are a lot of things to be worried about when it comes to the Flyers. Goaltending is the most obvious one, but there’s also their god-awful powerplay, their inability to have more than one line get hot at a time, or their forward’s taking half a season to warm up. There’s also the ever-present risk of sudden baldness. But the one thing you don’t need to be worried about right now is Matvei Michkov. The kid is really, we swear , all right.

The Andrew MacDonald

The Meat (Matt) Read ($20 Sale Price)

The Eric Lindros

The Danny Syvret - Ad Free

Should we be worried about Michkov’s rookie season?

Talking Points