The franchise has been the runner up the last six times they vied for a Stanley Cup. Their goaltender of the ’80s died tragically. Their generational talent was theirs, then belonged to the Rangers, then was theirs again after a ruling on July 1, 1992 went in Philadelphia’s favor regarding Eric Lindros. In the 2000s, the Flyers were contenders a few times, but eventually lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champions. Then there was the Shea Weber offer sheet, and that didn’t materialize. Then the 2010 playoffs and Patrick Kane. Then Pronger’s injury which ended things quickly. In short, the Flyers and their fanbase are used to disappointment, that or at least not getting too excited when there’s a chance for good news to arrive.
So, while news Friday broke concerning Philadelphia’s bank-busting five-year, $90 million offer sheet to Anaheim’s Leo Carlsson, there was perhaps more joy or hope than at any point in the last few years. The Ducks have seven days to figure out what they’re doing. If they match, that’s a huge chunk of cap space to one key forward. If they don’t, they have four first-round picks over four years to try and fill the massive hole down the middle. However, should Anaheim general manager Pat Verbeek (and Ducks ownership) decide to let Carlsson walk, suddenly the Flyers rebuild or retooling (whatever word you wish to use) goes from second gear into first gear instantly. The biggest need that Briere has tried to solve will have been fixed ridiculously well, and gives Philadelphia one of the best (and youngest) centers in the National Hockey League. The team already remains one of the youngest in the league. And should the Flyers part with Owen Tippett, and particularly Rasmus Ristolainen if Carlsson joins the club and money is needed to lock up Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale, that average age will go down a bit more.
Flyers join another tier of Stanley Cup contention
The Flyers probably hasn’t had a seven-month span in their history that has seen them go so far so fast. On Jan. 29, Philadelphia was mired in a terrible funk. They were 2-7-1 in their previous 10 games, had a record of 24-20-9 for 57 points, and needed to jump five teams to still be behind the two wildcard teams in Montreal and Boston. It looked like another year where they’d be on the outside looking in, and looking more at a lottery pick than any playoff hopes.
Well, we know what happened. The hot streak ran into a playoff spot, and then the first round win over the Penguins in six games. The loss to Carolina was expected, but the sweep did little to dampen the spirits of the fanbase and the organization. However, Briere went to work yet again, ensuring starting goaltender Dan Vladar had a capable backup in Joseph Woll, and the depth was addressed on the back end with Simon Benoit, and the fourth line with Noel Acciari. There was some tinkering, and good moves. But nothing that really moved the needle towards the Flyers being looked on as anything more than a team on the rise.
Carlsson’s offer sheet could mean a seismic shift, if not within the league, then certainly with the Flyers if he ends up in Philadelphia. They will have their number one center for the next five years (at least) while allowing the likes of Jack Nesbitt, Jack Berglund and other centers in the pipeline time to develop without being rushed or forced into spots they can’t handle. As well, with the Flyers having no shortage of talented wingers, they could suddenly look like a team that — barring injuries — could certainly push not just for a playoff spot, but for one of the top two spots in the Metropolitan Division.
A quick look inside the Metropolitan sees Columbus with Norris Trophy winner Zach Werenski, center Adam Fantilli and goaltender Jet Greaves being the bright spots along with Kirill Marchenko. But after that, there’s not a lot to be excited about. Pittsburgh continues to take on water and haven’t purchased a calendar since 2019, so they might be good. But Cup contenders? Hell no! The Rangers are rebuilding, the Devils are trying to improve, and the Islanders are the Islanders, often looking like they are playing football on ice and not hockey. The one wild card in the Metropolitan this year might be Washington. While Alex Ovechkin is coming back for one more year, the Capitals added Alex Tuch, Jordan Kyrou, Boone Jenner, and Vincent Desharnais. Only Kyrou is under 30 years old (28), so they are trying to contend or keep hope alive for Ovechkin, but shouldn’t be the top dog in the Metropolitan.
It’s conceivable that the Flyers are, on paper and with Carlsson in the lineup, arguably better than those aforementioned teams. Should Vladar and the defense maintain their high level of play, and if head coach Rick Tocchet’s system continues to stop opportunities in the bud, then Philadelphia should be more than holding their own on that side of the ice away from the puck. Putting a top-notch center in Carlsson among the top six somehow makes everything else in terms of forwards fall into place much easier. Zegras could go back to the wing without much hesitation, and Denver Barkey isn’t put into the middle as a trial by fire or short-term experiment that could end up falling flat.
Finally, although only 18 of Carlsson’s 67 points were on the power play last year, putting him in the mix with Zegras, Matvei Michkov, Porter Martone, and Travis Konecny should be a huge boost to Philadelphia’s special team. It couldn’t make it worse. For all of those reasons, and provided they avoid the injury bug and put in the work, Philadelphia should find themselves in the top three seeds of the Metropolitan Division. And possibly only playing second fiddle in the division to Carolina. Of course, that’s on paper, and things don’t always go according to plan when the season begins. Yet, the Flyers with Leo Carlsson find themselves on the same footing as a few other teams that are emerging into looming contenders.
Window doesn’t shorten, just stays open longer
Assuming the Flyers are successful in this offer sheet, and Carlsson is here for the next five years, Philadelphia suddenly jumps and avoids a few years of growing pains when it comes to becoming a perennial contender for the Cup. They are no longer hoping Nesbitt and Berglund become a top-tier center. Nor are they wasting some of Martone’s or Michkov’s early years, becoming far more serious contenders when the pair would be closer to 24 or 25 versus now. It simply speeds things up in terms of the front end of this window that, if Briere executes perfectly, will be open for some time to come.
There’s been no other center this young and this talented that has been close to changing teams in some time. This summer, Detroit’s Dylan Larkin seems to be the top center out there, but he’s pushing 30 years young, and that doesn’t fit Briere’s window. Had Larkin put Philadelphia on his short list of destinations, and Briere provided the package, would adding a center in (or just beyond) his prime now make sense? In two to three years the Flyers would be still looking for a high-end center with Larkin taking a step or two backwards. The idea that a center in his early 20s could develop and grow alongside Michkov, Martone, Barkey, Bump and others seemed like a pipe dream two weeks ago. But it’s a possibility now.
In terms of the Eastern Conference, only Montreal appears to be in the same mode of having a lot of talent and a lot of it being young. Montreal got to the Eastern Conference finals this spring. However, for a team that squeaked by Tampa Bay despite being outshot 29-9 in Game 7, and was outshot in the last eight playoff games (including scrounging 25 combined shots against Carolina in Game 2 and Game 3), they still have some room to grow and develop. Both Tampa Bay and Florida are in “win now” mode, and might be the favorites outside of Carolina in the East to go deep next spring. And as for the Western Conference, the Flyers don’t have to meet any of them until the fourth round. So Edmonton, Vegas, Minnesota, and Colorado is a bridge the Flyers would love to cross should they get there.
Overall, the Flyers won’t know for certain until some time on July 10 whether or not Carlsson’s offer sheet is or isn’t matched. If it isn’t, then it’s back to the drawing board for Briere to try and find a way to mend the center position. If it does work for Philadelphia, then the window for becoming a Stanley Cup contender has opened up by a considerable margin. And far quicker than anyone might have anticipated.
