The Philadelphia Flyers’ scoring woes are front and center

The Philadelphia Flyers have three centers signed to the roster beyond this season: Sean Couturier, Christian Dvorak, and Noah Cates. It\'s been pretty obvious that the offensive ceiling for this current group is low, but are they making up for it in other ways? Are they getting unlucky, or just unable to create anything at all? Are there depth options waiting for an opportunity? Starting with the top of the lineup, we\'ll see who\'s pulling their weight-- and who needs to be better.

Christian Dvorak - 13 G, 24 A, 37 Pts

Dvorak was the main beneficiary of the 40 game Trevor Zegras heater culminating in a hotly debated five year contract extension. It seemed premature at best, even when Dvorak was providing better offense than he has been. This past summer\'s free-agent center signing was brought in to be a stabilizing force for the biggest position of need in Philadelphia, and he\'s done a really nice job of that to this point. While not flashy, his experience at the center position was allowing Zegras to play freely on the wing and provide offensive punch, while also gathering some free assists for his sacrifice. He\'ll be the first Flyers center not named Sean Couturier to reach 40 points since Morgan Frost in 2023-24.

Dvorak has averaged 18:12 of ice time this season, most among centers, and has spent nearly all of that time with Zegras on one wing. The other wing has been primarily Travis Konecny or Owen Tippett, the former taking the lion\'s share of the time. Having the two top scorers on the team has helped Dvorak\'s offense reach new heights; his career high of 38 points will be broken within reach of the trade deadline. He\'s enjoyed playing with good wingers, setting another career high with 18 primary assists.

The Flyers, with Dvorak on the ice, take 46 percent of the shot attempts, per Moneypuck. He\'s got an Expected Goals percentage of right about 45 percent. But, looking at the results of the Zegras-Dvorak-Konecny line as a group, they sit at 53.3 percent Expected Goals For. This suggests the quality of wingers is driving Dvorak\'s play higher than he would be otherwise, but he\'s done a good job facilitating primary assists and cleaning up.

Danny Briere gave Dvorak a five year, $25.75 million contract extension on the fifth day that he was eligible to sign and a full seven months before they would have had to compete for his services again. Even in the most optimistic of outcomes, Dvorak is a 45 to 50 point center. It seems like he\'ll be around for a while, but hopefully not in a role like the one he\'s being asked to play now. Since signing the extension, Dvorak has four goals and eight assists in 20 games-- a 49 point pace. He\'s earning his checks, but probably won\'t provide much surplus value over the length of the deal.

Sean Couturier - 6 G, 22 A, 28 Pts

It was looking like the captain would never score again until Couturier iced the Bruins with an empty-net goal on Saturday night. It broke a 31 game curse. He\'s been the focal point of most of the online vitriol, even before the scoring drought. At a certain point, the puck has to go in the net. The goaltenders don\'t care how many Expected Goals are generated on a particular day. Hopefully, Couturier seeing a puck cross the goal line for a legal hockey goal-- goaltender or not-- can get the monkey off his back for the remainder of a season to forget.

The drought looks baffling looking at Couturier\'s analytics. It\'s almost impossible that he went so long without a goal. His shot attempt share (48 percent) and Expected Goal share (49.4 percent) have cratered the last two seasons to his lowest in over a decade, but those are still break-even numbers. His shooting percentage has been below NHL average since 2021, but the difference this season: he\'s simply missing the net at a career high 33.6 percent. That\'s one third of his shot attempts having no chance of scoring save for a lucky deflection. According to MoneyPuck\'s heatmap, his average shot distance is over 28 feet-- about ten feet further per shot than Christian Dvorak.

This is a major reason he\'s been in the scoring slump, compounded by the fact that it\'s just plain hard to score on NHL goaltenders when you do actually hit the net. To reach last year\'s 25 percent miss rate, Couturier would have to hit the net with his next 48 consecutive unblocked shot attempts (188 unblocked shot attempts with 47 misses). Not pictured in the table is the difference in High Danger shot attempts-- just seven this season, compared to 31 and 20 the last two years. He\'s not even getting the opportunities he was last season, and it\'s not like he lit the world on fire then, either, with just 15 goals on a 9.7 shooting percentage. This seems like the most plausible explanation for a six goal season thus far.

On the brighter side, it does feel like he\'s getting unlucky with on-ice results from a team perspective. Despite his personal shooting numbers the way they are, Couturier centers some of the most effective lines the Flyers have thrown out there this season. The Zegras-Dvorak-Konecny line may score more goals, but the Denver Barkey and Owen Tippett combination with Couturier is an analytical dream. This line, the fourth most used forward combination this season for Philadelphia, has a team-high 64.5 percent Expected Goals share. In fact, with lines that have 60 minutes of ice time together or more, two of the three most successful Expected Goal share lines for the Flyers are centered by Couturier with Tippett.

It\'s hard to believe that Couturier is getting that much of a prop from Tippett and Barkey, though Barkey\'s numbers in particular are outstanding in his limited time with the NHL club. He\'s doing things right out there, but he\'s not capitalizing on anything either. Compared to last year, Couturier is starting over twice as much in the defensive zone as he was then, with by far his lowest offensive zone deployment rate since 2015. He\'s a big eye test versus numbers guy, this season especially, and while the individual numbers are slipping, it\'s hard to say he\'s bringing the team down.

Noah Cates - 12 G, 19 A, 31 Pts

Maybe the second most disappointing part of Tyson Foerster being out for the season is Noah Cates\'s offense disappearing with Foerster. Or, at least, that\'s what it seemed like up to the Olympic break in February. Cates, in the four games since the resuming of the NHL season, has two goals and three assists. After zero goals in the month of January, we might be seeing a bit of a progression to the mean here. He\'ll never be a big scorer, but he\'s almost keeping pace with Dvorak\'s numbers despite only 16:25 of ice time per game.

Cates\'s analytics look good, actually. He\'s playing primarily now with Bobby Brink and Matvei Michkov. This isn\'t everyone\'s favorite line stylistically, but it\'s been effective of late to a 54.2 percent Expected Goals share-- over four percent better than the results with Foerster, Cates, and Brink together. Michkov looks rejuvenated as well, and it\'s paying dividends for Cates. While his faceoff numbers will probably always be dreadful in comparison to the other centers here, his physicality helps win puck battles to regain possession.

While it could be a product of his wingers, as is designed by the team full of wingers, Cates is absolutely putting himself in positions to score and capitalize on his teammates\' effectiveness. He has a career-best 56.3 percent Expected Goals share and 25 unblocked High Danger shot attempts-- already matching last season\'s 25. He misses the net a fair amount, but unlike Couturier, he has kept blasting away from high danger areas and been rewarded for it recently. Cates\'s 15 primary assists are already a career high, and hopefully, he can ride a Michkov hot streak or two and clear the 40 point mark for the first time.

Cates is in the first year of a four year contract extension. His versatility and all-around game give him good value anywhere in the lineup. This makes him an attractive trade option if the Flyers felt like they could make a deal with him involved, but there\'s not been much talk about that anywhere. There\'s also no immediate replacement waiting for an opportunity-- Jett Luchanko is still in juniors, and Rick Tocchet doesn\'t seem thrilled with the idea of Trevor Zegras having the responsibility. Cates is a massive success in development as a fifth-round pick, and while he might be at his theoretical ceiling, he\'s going to be a really nice contributor in the bottom-six for years to come.

The Philadelphia Flyers’ scoring woes are front and center

Christian Dvorak – 13 G, 24 A, 37 Pts

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