Was losing Tyson Foerster the start of Flyers’ slide?

This week the Philadelphia Flyers will hit the 50-game mark for this season, and against the host Colorado Avalanche who lost five games in regulation. And only missed out on 18 of a possible 94 points this season. That game at least won\'t see them with an extended losing streak after defeating Vegas 2-1 on Monday night. But the last few weeks haven\'t been kind to the Flyers, currently sitting three points out of a playoff spot after Monday\'s tilt. They still have one to two games in hand on some teams in the Metropolitan Division, yet, there is now very little wiggle room for this now six-game winless streak to carry on.

Many will cite the fact the Flyers have been missing starting goaltender Dan Vladar the last few games. That hasn\'t helped. Nor has the fact neither Sam Ersson nor Aleksei Kolosov have looked anything even remotely serviceable of late outside of Monday\'s strong performance by Ersson. To say nothing of the defensive miscues, the freefalling special teams, and the injuries to Bobby Brink (now back in the lineup), Rasmus Ristolainen and Rodrigo Abols. None of these factors have been the sole reason for the tailspin, but each have contributed to the Flyers demise down the playoff picture.

But before all of those things transpired, the Flyers were dealt possibly the biggest blow of the season on Dec. 1, when winger Tyson Foerster injured his arm taking a shot against Pittsburgh, later undergoing surgery and which will have him out for the rest of the season. The injury had a devastating effect on the team that they masked rather well the remainder of the month. But since the turn of the calendar, it appears the Flyers -- who were extremely thin on depth to begin with -- are missing the young, versatile sniper that Foerster was developing into. Added to that, Foerster\'s usage on both special teams has been sorely missed the last six weeks. Not to mention that the once hard-working, consistent trio of Foerster, Noah Cates, and Bobby Brink seems to be a distant, fading memory.

So, while one player doesn\'t make an entire team, the fact that the Flyers have faltered in recent weeks makes one realize just how impactful Foerster\'s absence has been.

Broken wings?

With 10 goals in his season, and given the pace he was at, it\'s conceivable Tyson Foerster would be the team\'s leading goal-scorer. His 10 goals puts him in a four-way tie for fifth on Philadelphia with Matvei Michkov, Christian Dvorak, and Noah Cates. What makes things more problematic is that Foerster\'s absence shows just how little most of the wingers on the Flyers have delivered this season. Sure, there\'s been a balance in team scoring with a lot of guys in double-digits. Never a bad thing. Yet Foerster should be further down the chart in terms of goal scoring, especially considering he\'s been gone for well over six weeks.

In terms of the wingers on the Flyers, Trevor Zegras is easily head and shoulders above all this season. Yet Owen Tippett has been somewhat underwhelming. We won\'t get into Michkov, but we know the answer there. And while Brink has been fine when he\'s healthy, he\'s not a game-breaker. Never has been and probably never will be. Philadelphia are playing games now where they need a guy like Foerster to either break the game open a bit, or possibly get them back in the game. His injury hasn\'t resulted in any wingers picking up the slack. Or demonstrating anyone here could replace Foerster, outside of a brief spell where Carl Grundstrom was setting the league on fire with seven goals in a short amount of time.

The kind of game Travis Konecny had on Monday night, with two goals including the game-winning short-handed tally, is one only a few players on Philadelphia seem capable of. And probably outside of Zegras -- or Michkov if he finds his game again before the season\'s end -- the only Flyer who seems built to score a crucial goal at a crucial time the last few seasons was Foerster. However, missing that element has made Philadelphia\'s road to achieving wins a bit tougher. Having Foerster in the lineup obviously gave the Flyers one more ace up their sleeve. Not having him simply puts more pressure on those few game-breakers the team has.

Foerster\'s injury proves the Flyers might have good to decent wingers, but they are still lacking ones who have the sniper-like mindset that Foerster showed last year and part of this season.

RIP the FCB line

Last season one of the better two-way, play-driving lines in the league was the trio of Noah Cates, Bobby Brink, and Tyson Foerster. They were solid in their own zone, great in the offensive zone, and rarely were caught out of position. The synergy between the trio was excellent, almost knowing instinctually where the other two would be on the ice at all times. And rarely was the line outworked when it came to one-on-one battles, whether in the corners or in the neutral zone.

The line was eventually broken up prior to Foerster\'s injury. It might have puzzled some people, but the idea was to get a few other guys going in the lineup or just to find new chemistries. In nine games, Foerster found himself with Travis Konecny and Cates. That line had five goals for and none against five-on-five in 78:55 ice time. Not bad compared to the Foerster, Cates, and Brink line which had three goals for and four goals against in 145:01 ice time. However, the other metrics showed that replacing Brink with Konecny meant one of two things. The first was that this particular new trio was going to need a lot more time together to gel. The second was just how good the longstanding line was in comparison. Have a look.

Foerster, Cates, Brink Foerster, Cates, Konency Corsi For % 47.22 40.79 Fenwick For % 49.32 42.42 Shots For % 53.85 43.08 Goals For % 42.86 100.00 Expected Goals For % 50.77 34.16 Scoring Chances For % 54.90 42.42 High Danger Chances For % 64.44 24.00

As you can see, aside from the goals for percentage, the line of Foerster, Cates, and Brink were clearly a notch or two above that of Foerster, Cates Konecny. Especially glaring are the differences not just in expected goals, but in the high danger chances for percentage where Foerster, Cates and Brink were almost three times better. It also shows that while Tocchet and the coaching staff wanted to mix things up in order to get more balance from other lines, he might have split up a line that really wasn\'t causing any problems to begin with. While Foerster wasn\'t on that quality line when the injury happened, losing Foerster eliminated any chance that Tocchet might reunite them later on in the season. While both Brink and Cates have done well since Foerster\'s absence, not having that option of putting them back together has certainly hurt the Flyers the rest of the season.

Special team rankings plummet

Again, Tyson Foerster wasn\'t responsible for all the Flyers power play goals when he was playing. That responsibility fell at the feet of Trevor Zegras. What\'s quite damning regarding the Flyers power play is that Foerster has not played since Dec. 1 and remains second on the team with three power play goals. He remains ahead of Owen Tippett, Noah Cates, and Bobby Brink who have a pair each.

From the beginning of the season through to Foerster\'s injury on Dec. 1, the Flyers were ranked 20th in the league with a 17.1 per cent effectiveness on the power play. Their net power play was a bit lower at 14.3 percent, good enough for 23rd in the league. However, since Foerster\'s injury, the power play is clunking along at a 12.5 percent efficiency, which prior to Monday\'s slate of games was 31st in the league.

Meanwhile, on the penalty kill, Foerster wasn\'t leading the forwards in usage, but he was a part of the penalty killing units. He was on the ice for 31:19 short-handed this season. But in that short amount of time, he was part of a penalty killing unit that from the start of the season through his injury was ranked ninth in the league at 82.1 percent. Meanwhile, the net penalty kill was also at 82.1 per cent but was ranked 20th. Part of the reason for the drop was Philadelphia incapable of scoring a short-handed goal early in the season. But since December 2 through Sunday\'s slate of games, Philadelphia\'s penalty kill is 29th and killing just 72.5 percent of the opposing power plays. Horrible. Meanwhile, the net penalty kill is a tad better at 76.8 percent, good for 23rd thanks to a few short-handed tallies.

While these numbers don\'t necessarily mean Foerster was the straw that stirred the special teams\' drink, he was a part of both units that -- while he was healthy -- were both performing drastically better than they are now.

In the end...

Tyson Foerster is injured. The upside is he\'s still young, and he should bounce back from this injury ready to go when training camp starts in September. At least that\'s the plan. He\'ll have one-year remaining on his two-year bridge deal. And should have something to prove, especially if he wants to make a bigger payday when this contract concludes. His injury shows that the Flyers aren\'t deep enough to replace him adequately. And while possibly not the direct cause of the Flyers woes of late, it\'s difficult trying to make up the production and solid two-way play he delivered in most of his time with the Flyers. It had all the makings of a huge, possibly breakout season. It was not meant to be. His absence might not have been as apparent when the Flyers were still earning victories. But he\'s been sorely missed of late.

All stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and NHL.com

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