Originally published July 9, 2024
Matvei Michkov is officially a member of the Philadelphia Flyers, and fans will be able to watch him make his home debut in person at Wells Fargo Center on October 19 against the Vancouver Canucks.
There likely will not be a single empty seat in the building, and for good reason.
Michkov is among the most prolific U-20 players to ever come out of Russia, making him perhaps the most highly-anticipated Flyers prospect since Hockey Hall of Famer Eric Lindros. Falling just two points shy (41 in 47 games) of setting a new KHL record for points scored by a player under the age of 20 last season, some are expecting Michkov to join the Flyers and immediately shine as a rookie. While it would hardly be shocking for him to one day become the club’s top point producer, doing so as a first-year NHLer could be a tall task (though certainly not impossible, of course).
For a more realistic estimate of what to expect from Michkov as a rookie, a look back at hockey history may add some clarity. Let’s revisit the most productive seasons of U-20 KHL players since the league’s founding in 2008 and examine how they fared in their first go-round as NHLers.
Kirill Kaprizov
19-year-old KHL season: 20 G, 22 A, 42 P, 49 GP
Rookie NHL season (23 years old): 27 G, 24 A, 51 P, 55 GP
Believe it or not, there may have been more hype surrounding Kaprizov before his arrival to North America than Michkov is currently receiving. This is largely thanks to the additional time Kaprizov spent in Russia. Selected in the fifth round of the 2015 draft, Kaprizov didn’t make his NHL debut until 2021. That five-and-a-half-year wait had Wild fans chomping at the bit to see him put on a forest green sweater, and once he did, he more than delivered.
Kaprizov scored an overtime game-winning goal in his NHL debut and went on to win the Calder Memorial Trophy after leading the Wild with 51 points as a rookie. He’s since become a perennial All-Star and is arguably the top player in franchise history at just 27 years old. It should be noted, though, that Kaprizov was no average rookie. He was 23 years old when he debuted in the NHL. Michkov will still be a teenager when he takes the ice for his first NHL game.
Evgeny Kuznetsov
19-year-old KHL season: 19 G, 22 A, 41 P, 49 GP
Rookie NHL season (22 years old): 11 G, 26 A, 37 P, 80 GP
Kuznetsov appeared in 17 NHL games to end the 2013-14 campaign, but became a regular staple in the Washington Capitals lineup the following season. Unlike Kaprizov, it took Kuznetsov some time to adjust to the NHL. He posted 37 points in his first full season as an NHLer, but upped his play significantly the following year with 20 goals and 77 points in 82 games.
Kuznetsov has since appeared in two All-Star Games and played an integral role in the Capitals’ Stanley Cup run in 2017. He’s logged 575 points in 743 NHL games — an average pace of 63 points over a full 82-game season.
Pavel Buchnevich
19-year-old KHL season: 13 G, 17 A, 30 P, 48 GP
Rookie NHL season (21 years old): 8 G, 12 A, 20 P, 41 GP
Buchnevich debuted for the New York Rangers in 2016 and made an impact early on, but missed significant chunks of the campaign due to back spasms. Still, he finished the season averaging nearly half a point per game and went on to become a staple at wing in the Rangers’ top six.
The Rangers traded Buchnevich to the St. Louis Blues in 2021. Since being traded, he’s experienced a significant uptick in point production. He logged career highs in goals (30) and points (76) during the 2021-22 season and is fresh off back-to-back 60-plus-point campaigns. Thus far, he’s posted a solid 401 points in 517 NHL games.
Vitali Kravtsov
19-year-old KHL season: 8 G, 13 A, 21 P, 50 GP
Rookie NHL season (22 years old): 4 G, 4 A, 8 P, 44 GP
Kravtsov is an example of a young KHL standout who hasn’t panned out in the NHL. The numbers from his age-19 KHL season don’t jump off the page like Michkov’s do, but he did show serious flashes of potential before flaming out in North America.
The 2022-23 season technically counts as Kravtsov’s rookie campaign, though he also appeared in 20 games the year prior. Selected by the Rangers with the No. 9 overall selection of the 2018 draft, Kravtsov got his first taste of the North American game in the AHL with the Hartford Wolf Pack, logging six goals and 15 points in 39 games during the 2019-20 season. He made his NHL debut the following season, but only appeared in 20 games, posting a grand total of four points in those outings. After failing to make the Rangers’ lineup to open the 2021-22 season, he refused to rejoin the Wolf Pack and was sent to the KHL’s Traktor Chelyabinsk on loan. He appeared in 28 games for the Rangers in 2022-23 before being traded to the Vancouver Canucks in the middle of the season. He finished the year with just eight points in 44 games and has since returned to Traktor Chelyabinsk.
Artemi Panarin
19-year-old KHL season: 5 G, 16 A, 21 P, 40 GP
Rookie NHL season (24 years old): 30 G, 47 A, 77 P, 80 GP
There wasn’t much hype surrounding Panarin before he came to North America. At 19, his KHL numbers were good, but far from spectacular. It took him several years to round out his game in Russia before finally being offered an entry-level contract by the Chicago Blackhawks in 2015.
The rest is history.
Panarin was a rookie sensation, winning the Calder over Connor McDavid and Shayne Gostisbehere and logging a whopping 77 points as a first-year NHLer. He’s now considered one of the top offensive players in the NHL. However, like Kaprizov, Panarin was older for a rookie, wrapping up his first NHL campaign as a 24-year-old.
Vladimir Tarasenko
19-year-old KHL season: 9 G, 10 A, 19 P, 42 GP
Rookie NHL season (21 years old): 8 G, 11 A, 19 P, 38 GP
When healthy, Tarasenko is one of the NHL’s premier goal scorers. He’s hit the 30-goal mark six times, won a pair of Stanley Cups and appeared in four All-Star Games in his 12-year NHL career. There’s not much the 32-year-old hasn’t accomplished at the NHL level. Still, even he needed time to adjust to the NHL. Making his NHL debut during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season, Tarasenko logged an admirable eight goals and 19 points in 38 games — good scoring numbers, but meager compared to his prime point production.
Before coming to North America, Tarasenko got his feet wet in the KHL, and at 19, his numbers didn’t touch Michkov’s. He did log an impressive 24 points in 42 games in his age-18 KHL campaign, but Michkov posted 20 points in 12 fewer outings as an 18-year-old.
Nikita Kucherov
19-year-old KHL season: N/A
Rookie NHL season (20 years old): 9 G, 9 A, 18 P, 52 GP
Kucherov didn’t play in the KHL as a 19-year-old. Instead, he opted to play junior hockey in the QMJHL to better acclimate himself to the North American game before establishing himself as one of the greatest players of his generation. He did play in the MHL, though, setting records for goals (29) and points (54) scored by a 16-year-old during the 2009-10 season (which were both exceeded by Michkov in 2021).
Even after setting junior hockey records in Russia, it took Kucherov time to develop in the NHL. He posted just 18 points in 52 games as a rookie with the Tampa Bay Lightning, but broke out for 65 points as a second-year pro. Today, Kucherov is a regular Art Ross Trophy candidate and an annual shoe-in for the All-Star Team.
As the saying goes, Rome wasn’t built in a day. Some young KHL stars come to North America and immediately excel. Some take multiple years to get accustomed to the NHL, while others fade out entirely.
Michkov will encounter struggles as a rookie. That is a guarantee. But when he does get comfortable with his new team, his new city and his new continent, history says he has a chance to become a franchise-changing cornerstone.
Enjoy the ride. It goes by fast.
