The news broke Friday afternoon, and although we won’t know for sure until July 10 for certain, the Philadelphia Flyers have rolled the dice on what could be a franchise-altering move. By signing Anaheim center Leo Carlsson to a five-year, $90 million offer sheet ($18 million average annual value), they have essentially thrown down the gauntlet on the Ducks regarding their prized 21-year-old center. If they don’t pony up that amount of money for that length of time, then Leo Carlsson will be a Flyer in a week’s time.
However, with the incredibly huge acquisition a distinct possibility — one that certainly resolves and solidifies any issues the Flyers were having down the middle — the Flyers will have to realize that acquiring Carlsson will alter their salary cap structure for this year and the foreseeable future. It also is probably now quite apparent that those extensions reportedly set for both Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras will have to wait, at least for the next week, before they become official.
That’s not to say the Flyers don’t have the cap space to pull off the offer sheet. Without taking into account what the number might be on a Claude Giroux contract with Philadelphia, the Flyers have (according to Puckpedia.com) approximately $29.57 million in cap space. Of course, perhaps the biggest news outside of the Carlsson offer sheet was the extension to Tyson Foerster, which takes a $7.1 million chunk out of the salary cap starting in 2027-28. They have yet to announce the Trevor Zegras contract extension, nor have they come to a formal agreement on Jamie Drysdale. For the sake of argument, there’s speculation the multi-year deal for the defenseman will be in the neighborhood of $6 million per year. So if it was a $6 million AAV that would drop that cap space number to $23.57 million. So, it appears that if Anaheim doesn’t match the offer sheet contract, and Carlsson ends up in Philadelphia, they would have $5.57 million left on the books. Which doesn’t take into account that Trevor Zegras still needs to be signed to a contract. Which means…
Carlsson incoming means something outgoing
So, with the Carlsson deal in the offing, it’s clear that the Flyers are going to have to make a few moves to give themselves a bit of wiggle room to comfortably have Zegras signed to an extension. They could be over the cap limit during the summer if need be, but before training camp, they would have to whittle that amount over to just get under the salary cap ceiling. Obviously, there have been dozens of reports this past season that defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen was on his way out of town. He has one year remaining on a five-year $25.5 million contract ($5.1 million AAV). If he was traded for picks or a marginal AHL-calibre player or some combination, then that would clear up $5.1 million. That would put the room under the cap (again not including Giroux’s contract) up to $10.67 million. The idea that Zegras and a possible Giroux contract might come in under that number seems reasonable, but not exactly a certainty in terms of the cap numbers.
Of the remaining players on the roster who are signed relatively long-term and with rather reasonable to frugal cap hits, winger Owen Tippett and defenseman Cam York appear to be the two leading names when it comes to trade talk. Tippett’s eight-year, $49.6 million contract ($6.2 million AAV) is now in its third year. And with that Tippett has a bit of clout that he didn’t have last season. Namely, he has a modified 10-team no trade list in each of the next four seasons of the deal. That’s not to say Tippett is untradeable. But it does make Briere’s work a little tougher than had Tippett had no trade or movement protection. Tippett’s assets would make him perhaps quite tradeable, but whether the Flyers would be able to just get draft picks for him and not a player (ideally an AHL-er) in return is anyone’s guess. However, should the Flyers relieve themselves fully of the Tippett contract (in addition to Ristolainen’s deal), then suddenly that cap room blossoms from $10.67 million up to $16.87 million, which is most likely plenty of room to get Zegras signed to his extension while allowing Briere to have a bit of wiggle room under the cap.
If Tippett and Ristolainen aren’t the two Flyers who might be heading out of town, then York might be another piece that makes the Flyers get over the proverbial salary cap hump. York is in the second year of a five-year, $25.75 million deal ($5.15 million AAV). More importantly, at least from a trade aspect, he has absolutely no trade or movement protection throughout the entire deal. So Briere could easily use him as a trade piece to another club. Of course, as mentioned before, it would be crucial that the return not be close to a dollar-in/dollar-out scenario, as that would not help Philadelphia or Briere much at all. The Flyers would need to remove at least three-quarters to all of York’s contract to make Carlsson’s contract and the Zegras extension fit. That’s not retention, as it’s not impossible but doubtful the Flyers would be willing to retain any of these player’s contracts to get over the hump. On the other hand, if it’s the difference between landing Carlsson and keeping Zegras happy, then Briere will keep all options open with retention as a last resort.
In short, if Ristolainen’s deal is gone, that’s a help. If Ristolainen and one of the contracts belonging to either York or Tippett are gone, that’s a huge help. If Briere is able to unload the three contracts, then the Flyers are laughing all the way to the bank. Almost as much as Leo Carlsson.
What hurdles await the Flyers in 2027-28 and beyond
The Flyers will have done a huge amount of heavy lifting if the Carlsson offer sheet isn’t matched, and he heads to Philadelphia for the next five seasons. However, they are basically in fairly good shape moving forward should Carlsson and his $18 million per year deal is realized with the Flyers. Looking at 2027-28, the Flyers will have Matvei Michkov as the only player they have as a restricted free agent, so that might be the only huge negotiation Briere has to deal with next summer. The Flyers will have three unrestricted free agents also next summer: Ristolainen, defenseman Simon Benoit, and forward Carl Grundstrom (again, not including what the possible Giroux deal or length might entail). It seems ridiculous to think Ristolainen would be extended, while both Benoit and Grundstrom are role players who wouldn’t cost much even if they were re-signed.
Without going too far down the road, forwards Porter Martone and Denver Barkey along with defenseman David Jiricek are restricted free agents when their contracts end at the conclusion of the 2028-29 season. That same season will see Noel Acciari, Nick Seeler, and Joseph Woll become unrestricted free agents. For now, Martone is the key piece to lock up, and something Briere won’t hesitate to finalize when the time comes.
Finally, assuming the Ducks lose Carlsson and he becomes a Flyer, and Anaheim wants their proverbial pound of flesh down the road, the Flyers cap structure the next several seasons with a Carlsson addition will be relatively locked up, with very little needed in terms of negotiations. Or a bevy of UFAs needing deals. Should Anaheim decide to offer sheet Martone and/or Michkov should the opportunity presents itself, it’s probably a good bet the Flyers will have the space to match such an offer sheet given the rising salary cap. At the very worst, if Michkov’s deal was gigantic, and too rich for the Flyers for some reason, Philadelphia will recoup a few of the first-round draft picks they sent off to land Carlsson in the first place.
As it stands now, the Flyers have the room to make it work, but to get everything done, they will most likely have to make a trade or two.
Stats courtesy of Puckpedia.com.
