The Flyers put the entire Anaheim Ducks’ organization and cap structure into a total mess with the record-breaking offer sheet of Leo Carlsson on Friday, and we are starting to see the true fallout to the Ducks’ cap.
On Sunday afternoon, the Ducks signed 22-year-old RFA defenseman Pavel Mintyukov to a 5-year, $7.2 million-AAV contract, according to Elliotte Friedman. That comes after a report that the Ducks were aware of a looming offer sheet for Mintyukov from at least two other teams. This time, instead of calling the player’s bluff on an offer sheet, Ducks GM Pat Verbeek stepped up his offer to get the deal done. Right now, it appears the pressure of an offer sheet had an effect, and the Ducks cap situation continues to get a bit more strained. With that being said, let’s dive into what Mintyukov’s deal might mean for the Flyers’ chances with Leo Carlsson.
Did the Ducks overpay for Mintyukov?
For sure, the Ducks could not really afford to lose Mintyukov on their blueline. He’s penciled into a top-4 role, and while he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype yet, he’s an important part of their future moving forward. The blueline is already pretty thin with Mintyukov, but without him? You’d be looking at Jackson Lacombe, Nick Jensen, and four other really young defenseman who haven’t proved anything yet. It gets risky really quickly for a team that’s just prying open their competitive window.
Per Evolving-Hockey’s contract projection tool, Mintyukov’s projection on a 5-year deal would have carried a $5.1 AAV. The Ducks aren’t going to be upset with keeping Mintyukov around, but this number certainly has to be more than they were envisioning. For a player whose career high is 28 points and has middling play-driving numbers, Mintyukov got quite the deal for himself. That’s not to say that Mintyukov won’t eventually live up to this contract, but at Mintyukov’s current impact, it’s a pretty bad deal for Anaheim. At the very least, Danny Briere has forced Anaheim to give millions more to each of their RFAs than they originally wanted.
The Ducks’ cap situation now
If the Ducks match the Leo Carlsson offer sheet, the Ducks will have $9,973,395 in cap space left. Still having to sign RFA Cutter Gauthier to a deal, the organization is right up against it. Considering what we know about Gauthier, the fact that he’s already one of the better goal scorers in the league, and what this level of player typically gets paid, the Ducks will probably need to move money to sign him.
Per Evolving-Hockey’s contract projection tool, Gauthier’s most likely deal is in the 8-year, $9.7 million range. At a five year length, the AAV falls to a flat $8 million. The thing is though, Gauthier and his team are clearly operating at a higher value than that. Even prior to the Carlsson offer sheet, reports came out that the Ducks were looking to keep both Carlsson and Gauthier in the $10-12 million range. Gauthier and the Ducks were probably already negotiating at a salary above $10 million, and the Carlsson deal is going to likely change everything for that deal. The odds feel very low that Gauthier isn’t asking for at least $13 million or $14 million now. He’ll have lots of leverage over the Ducks in his negotiations, even though he’s ineligible to sign an offer sheet this offseason.
There are definitely ways for Verbeek to maneuver his way out of this, but it requires the Ducks to completely rework their cap around Carlsson. He’s the franchise center, but that’s still quite the ask for a GM to work around. Massive contracts like this are something you have to plan around, and the Carlsson’s deal being over budget by 4 or 5 million is throwing a big curveball Pat Verbeek’s way. In the short term, there are plenty of veterans on the roster that Verbeek can move to acquire a little more cap space, but the entire league knows the Ducks are up against it. They’ll likely have to attach sweeteners to move on from players, but it’s possible. There are plenty of teams who will take on a player like Chris Kreider ($6.5 million, Frank Vatrano ($4.57 million), or Alex Killorn ($6.25 million).
Troy Terry’s also on injured reserve right now, and is expected to miss the first month of the season. Perhaps the cap savings the Ducks will earn with Terry on IR will be enough to fit Carlsson, Mintyukov, and Gauthier, but it will be tight as it stands.
If Verbeek decides to match the Carlsson offer sheet, we’d have to think that we will really get a good indication in the next couple of days. If he starts to move off players like Kreider or Vatrano, we’re heading towards a match. There’d be no real reason to deal away from the little forward depth that the Ducks currently have unless they were matching Carlsson. Other teams might really squeeze the Ducks here and wait until the last second to make a deal, but we’re probably going to hear rumblings about this over the next few days.
Mintyukov’s deal probably doesn’t make it more or less likely that the Ducks match the Carlsson offer sheet, but it really illuminates the situation the Ducks are in. Whatever happens from here on out, Danny Briere has created chaos in Anaheim, and a cap that is quickly becoming a disaster.
