After Tuesday night’s 5-2 win over the Ducks, the Flyers sit in third place in the Metropolitan Division with 51 points in 41 games thus far. With a 22-12-7 record, the Flyers are on a 102-point pace — a pretty remarkable pace considering the preseason expectations of this team. Their point percentage of .621 is good for third in the entire Eastern Conference, and sixth in the entire National Hockey League.
The teams ahead of them? Colorado, Dallas, Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Carolina. All bona fide Stanley Cup contenders and teams that we expect to be at least in the Conference Finals come May. The Philadelphia Flyers, a team that’s been mired in mediocrity and in the basement of the league for the last bunch of years, are right on the edge of that group as the second half of the season commences. Certainly, the Flyers aren’t that good, but we’re getting to the point where it’s playoffs or bust, and they’ll be a legit threat to win a round.
So, having said all that, let’s dive into where the various public models have the Flyers’ playoff chances at entering play on January 7.
Micah Blake McCurdy (HockeyViz)
A model that’s always been pessimistic about the Flyers odds this season, the HockeyViz model had the Flyers well below the playoff line in their preseason projections of the team. They had the Flyers projected for 72.3 standings points, a 3% chance at the playoffs, last in the Metro, and way towards the bottom of the league standings.
Now, the Flyers odds have steadily increased to today’s season-high mark of 31.8%. That doesn’t sound like great odds, but the model is slowly pushing the Flyers above teams like the free-falling Devils and the mediocre Rangers.
HockeyViz also projects the Flyers to finish with 90.1 standings points, which would require a massive fall-off in the Flyers pace to end the season. To reach that number, the Flyers only need 39 points in their final 41 games, a .475 points percentage the rest of the way. Considering the Flyers current level of play and their strong goaltending, that level of dropoff feels incredibly unlikely. To put it into perspective, the Flyers would have to play below Chicago Blackhawks level (.488 points percentage this season) to get to that number. Even with the ridiculous amount of parity in the Eastern Conference, the Flyers have some room for regression in their pursuit of the playoffs. A .548 points percentage the rest of the way, for example, would get them to 96 points and a really strong chance at qualifying.
MoneyPuck
As the first half of the season has progressed, the Flyers’ chunk of the MoneyPuck wheel has only gotten larger. Starting out as a team that had pretty lowly playoff odds, the Flyers have now progressed to a 63.5% chance to qualify. That’s the third best odds in the Metro, behind only Carolina and Washington and slightly ahead of Islanders and Penguins. Moneypuck also gives the Flyers a 28.7% chance to win their 1st round matchup, which feels about right for lots of potential Flyers matchups in a playoff series. If the season were to end today, the Flyers would play the Islanders in the first round, in a series that really could go either way. Other series, like potential matchups versus the Canes or Lightning, would be a bit more difficult to see the Flyers coming out of.
The Athletic
Similar to the HockeyViz model, Dom Luszczyszyn’s model is very down on the Flyers’ chances. It’s been a very slow climb for the Flyers’ odds, as Luszczyszyn gives the Flyers a 30% chance of qualifying (as of January 5). That might have increased slightly following the win over the Ducks, but he’s still quite low on this Flyers team.
It makes some level of sense that public models are pretty low on what this team is doing right now. Public models, by all accounts, highly rate teams that consistently drive play and don’t purely rely on timely scoring and strong goaltending. The Flyers, who have frequently relied on Rick Tocchet defensive hockey, Dan Vladar’s consistency, and a ridiculously high 18.68 shooting percentage when Trevor Zegras is on the ice, are the exact kind of team that public models would be down on.
Where does Vegas have the Flyers?
And finally, the odds in Vegas have the Flyers’ playoff chances in toss-up territory. They are a +135 to make it, and a -160 to miss, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. Feels pretty fair overall, and the exact lines you’d expect from a team that’s exceeding expectations at the halfway point. DraftKings also gives the Flyers 25-1 odds to win the Metropolitan Division, 75-1 odds to win the Conference, and 150-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup. So, if you want to get your bets in on this Flyers team, now is the time to throw your hat in the ring.
