With one week to go in the regular season, the Flyers sit in sole possession of third place in the Metropolitan Division. There’s still work to be done, but the Flyers have put themselves in a good spot with 5 games to go.
Tuesday night’s game against the Devils is the start of a five games in eight days stretch to finish the season, and the beginning of a three-game road trip to Newark, Detroit, and Winnipeg. The Flyers will then return home next Monday and Tuesday for a tough back-to-back against Carolina and Montreal. There’s a ways to go here, but the Flyers can really put themselves in a strong position to clinch a playoff spot with a solid road trip.
The numerous public models have been pretty down on the Flyers over the course of the season, but Sunday’s win over the Bruins vaulted the Flyers into the driver’s seat in most of the models. Let’s dive in to where the Flyers’ chances stand ahead of a pivotal week of hockey.
HockeyViz (Micah Blake McCurdy)
The team at HockeyViz was not expecting a whole lot from the Flyers this season, projecting the Flyers at 72.3 points and a 3% chance to make the playoffs in their pre-season modeling. Now? The Flyers sit at a 49.9% chance to qualify, and are projected for roughly 95 points. Behind them, HockeyViz gives the Blue Jackets a 26.3% chance to qualify, the Islanders a 21.5% chance, and the Capitals an 11% chance. Amongst the Metro teams, the Flyers have the best odds to grab the final divisional spot. In the wildcard race, Ottawa stands at an 83.6% clip while Detroit has plummeted to a 10.2% chance.
HockeyViz also projects the swings in playoff chances that could occur due to tonight’s results. If the Flyers were to come away with a win over the Devils, the Flyers’ playoff chances vault to nearly 68%. A Flyers win combined with a Columbus loss to Detroit? Those chances go to nearly 75%. A loss to the Devils and a Blue Jackets win, on the other hand, will put the Flyers back into the high 20s and likely put the Blue Jackets back in the driver’s seat for the playoffs.
HockeyStats.com
This model has the Flyers at a 60% chance to make the playoffs entering Tuesday night. Following them, the Blue Jackets have a 24% chance and the Islanders are at 20%. The Capitals are at 7%, the Senators are at 77%, and the Red Wings are at 14%.
If results fall the Flyers way tonight (Win over NJ, Blue Jackets regulation loss, Ottawa regulation loss), the Flyers odds will increase to roughly 82%. If the Flyers win and the other favorable results do not occur, the Flyers will likely still improve to around 70%. If everything goes against the Flyers tonight and they lose to New Jersey, it is likely that their playoff odds by this model fall to around 40%. Needless to say, this is a massive game for the Flyers chances tonight, against the worst team remaining on their schedule.
Moneypuck.com
Moneypuck’s giant wheel of playoff probabilities has the Flyers at 54.2% to qualify for the playoffs as of Tuesday morning. They also have the Flyers at a 26.4% chance to win their first round series (likely against Pittsburgh), and a 10.2% to advance two rounds (likely against Carolina). Moneypuck even has the Flyers at a 2% chance to win the Cup, if you want to dream a little.
The Athletic
Dom Luszczyszyn’s model has also been down on the Flyers most of the year, considering the team’s lowly offensive numbers for the majority of the year. Now, The Athletic gives the Flyers the best chance of winning the final Metro spot with a 46% chance. The Blue Jackets sit at 34%, the Islanders at 21%, and the Capitals at 8%. By the model, the Flyers have a 1% chance of making the Cup Final, and less than 1% chance of winning the whole thing.
What the Flyers need to do this week
Really, 3 wins should do it. A record of 3-2-0 would put the Flyers at 96 points, and make it really difficult on everyone to pass them. To equal the Flyers in points and qualify via tiebreakers, the Blue Jackets would need to go 4-1-0 or 3-0-2 in their final 5 games to reach 96. The Islanders would need to earn 7 of their last 8 points, a record of 3-0-1 or 4-0-0. The Capitals can only get to a max of 95 points if they are perfect the rest of the way. At least in the divisional race, 96 points should be more than enough, considering how the Islanders and Blue Jackets have been playing recently. Even if the Islanders get their temporary new coach bump, the odds of that team being perfect the rest of the way has to be quite small.
If the Flyers go 4-1-0 the rest of the way and reach 98 points, the Flyers are in so long as the Blue Jackets do not go 5-0-0. The Islanders would be mathematically unable to catch the Flyers if they reach 98 points.
For the first time in a long time, the Flyers control their own destiny in their pursuit for the first playoff berth since 2020.
