The Philadelphia Flyers need to send a qualifying offer to all of their restricted free agents by 5:00 p.m. on Monday or else those players will then head into unrestricted free agency and be free to sign with whatever team they want. It’s essentially an NHL team checking a box saying “We want to keep you around, let’s continue our contract negotiations into the summer”.
This year, the Flyers have a total of 10 restricted free agents they need to send these qualifying offers to, and not all of them are guaranteed to get them.
Let’s see who the Flyers are most likely to keep around and which young players they might just think about letting go — sorted into tiers obviously.
The obvious decisions
Trevor Zegras, Jamie Drysdale, Nikita Grebenkin
These are the no-brainers. It would be maybe the most momentous mistake if the Flyers just forgot to file the paperwork and not end up sending any of these three players qualifying offers.
Both Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale are eyeing long-term contract extensions with the team and should put pen to paper before training camp starts. We don’t even have to go into more detail about that because we’re not projecting any contracts, we’re just saying who may or may not get that precious QO.
For Nikita Grebenkin, a contract might be even easier to sign for him. It’s clear-cut case for an eventual bridge contract for the 23-year-old winger. He’ll get signed to something like a two-year, $4.5-million contract to keep him around and see if he can be anything more than a fourth-line player. And if not? Then the Flyers should be more than happy to keep on bringing him along on shorter-term deals, but that’s also a separate article. Grebenkin will get a QO.
Probably getting a qualifying offer but it’s not guaranteed
Christian Kyrou, Karsen Dorwart, Hunter McDonald
These are certainly more tricky. In all three players they are prospects that the Flyers clearly see something in but haven’t really shown enough to get meaningful time in the NHL. They will most likely remain in the organization since they were good players for the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, and that’s useful, but if the Flyers see that they need to cut bait with one of them to make room for a more important prospect, then maybe they do that.
If Oliver Bonk is with the Flyers, the only worthwhile defenseman prospect that will be playing with the Phantoms is Spencer Gill, and he can use some sheltering to start his pro career. In that case, Kyrou and McDonald are useful to keep around, as the other AHL defensemen like Helge Grans and Ty Murchison insulate them.
For Karsen Dorwart, it’s a little bit more interesting. Jett Luchanko and Jack Berglund could both be joining the Phantoms next year, as well as other center prospect Cole Knuble. That’s just a whole lot of young talent needing playing time and the Flyers could see that Dorwart and his 24 points in 70 AHL games last year is a type of player you are dying to keep around.
Now, Berglund could get loaned back to Sweden to play in the SHL, so that can remove him from the equation, so I guess then Kaplan can be kept as a bottom-six center for the Phantoms. Just a guy to help fill out the roster, and why not?
Take it or leave it
Philip Tomasino, Brett Harrison, Tucker Robertson, Artem Guryev
Let’s get the big one out of the way. Philip Tomasino, who was acquired by the Flyers and once had interesting potential as an NHL center, is most likely not going to be sent a qualifying offer. I would personally be surprised if he was.
Tomasino’s qualifying offer is $1.75 million because that is the salary of the contract that just expired. Meaning, he can accept that and take that as a one-year, $1.75-million contract and stay with the team. The problem with that is if he’s sent down to the AHL, then that will mean about $525,000 of dead cap on the Flyers’ books. The maximum salary amount a team can bury in the AHL for next season if $1.225 million.
The 24-year-old center did score 26 points in 38 games for the Phantoms last season, so he’s a good player to have — especially with all the young prospects coming up. There is a world where they don’t qualify Tomasino, but they then re-sign him to a contract that would be able to be fully buried in the minors, just to keep him around. The prospects need good players to play with.
As for Brett Harrison, Tucker Robertson, and Artem Guryev, they all were acquired midseason last year by the Flyers so no roots have really been planted. And, none of them really popped while with the Phantoms last season. Extremely whatever. Could use familiar names to keep some consistency as the Phantoms have a big roster changeover, but not the biggest deal if the Flyers walk away.
