Why Flyers may not need bona fide first-line center

There\'s been a lot of discourse about what the Philadelphia Flyers are missing from their prospect pool and roster that keeps them from being a Stanley Cup contending team, but it usually boils down to three things: a No. 1 center, a No. 1 defenseman, and a true starting goaltender.

As far as goalies go, 19-year old Yegor Zavragin may be the real deal; in 43 regular season games between HK Sochi and SKA St. Petersburg last season, he posted a .927 save-percentage (SV%). If Zavragin keeps that up, he\'s well on track to, hopefully, become a formidable NHL goalie--and will be worth the wait.

On defense, there\'s no clear cut, all-situations No. 1 defenseman--not on the roster and not in the pipeline. Travis Sanheim has been very good, and Cam York may have more to give, but beyond that the Flyers lack a do-it-all blueliner. That said, they may not need one--if you don\'t have a future Hall of Fame caliber defenseman (think Victor Hedman or Cale Makar), teams can get by doing defense by committee. The Florida Panthers are proof positive; you can\'t really point to Aaron Ekblad or Seth Jones or even Gustav Forsling and say, \"that\'s a true blue number one defenseman.\" All of them are very good, top-pair quality defensemen, and having a collection of great-but-not-quite-stars blue liners without a bona fide No. 1 might not be the weakness we imagine.

That leaves top-line center as the last role to be filled, and true No. 1 centers are a rare commodity. Connor McDavid. Nathan MacKinnon. Sidney Crosby. Auston Matthews. Aleksander Barkov. Anze Kopitar. Jack Hughes. Brayden Point. These are the best-of-the-best in their role, and the only one to get traded in recent memory--Jack Eichel--was moved because he wanted to take control of his medical care. The Flyers are going to be hard-pressed to find a player of that caliber to solve their problem.

Except...what if they don\'t actually need a first-line center in quite the way we think?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QIJopqEtZW4&ab_channel=BroadStreetHockey

This was a discussion we had on the Broad Street Hockey Podcast (please like and subscribe to our various channels), and it got me thinking about \"what makes an effective line\" and \"what\'s been the best line in hockey post-COVID\" and \"can it work with only a star winger,\" so I decided to dig in a bit deeper.

For this exercise, using MoneyPuck\'s data, we\'re going to look at the top lines by expected-Goals for percentage (xGF%) since the 2021-22 season that specifically feature a winger (or wingers) as the ostensible \"star\" player(s) on that line. In addition, lines must\'ve played more than 550 minutes of 5-on-5 time together, and will be listed from highest xGF% to lowest. Keep in mind that, while no statistic is perfect, a high xGF% often indicates strong play driving ability, which is why it\'s been selected as the primary stat here; 550 minutes was chosen because it generally means 60-plus games as a line, which denotes heavy usage, coach\'s trust, consistency, and health.

The Lines

Players (Season) Team xGF% CF% Goals Scored Minutes Matthew Tkachuk-Elias Lindholm-Johnny Gaudreau (2021-22) Calgary Flames 62.2% 58% 72 965 Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz-Joe Pavelski (2021-22) Dallas Stars 59.5% 56.1% 51 791 Jason Robertson-Roope Hintz-Joe Pavelski (2022-23) Dallas Stars 59.2% 56% 52 765 Alexis Lafreniere-Vincent Trocheck-Artemi Panarin (2023-24) New York Rangers 55.6% 58.3% 54 863 Morgan Geekie-Pavel Zacha-David Pastrnak (2024-25) Boston Bruins 53.9% 52.5% 35 632 Kirill Kaprizov-Ryan Hartman-Mats Zuccarello (2021-22) Minnesota Wild 53.6% 54.6% 48 639 Nikolaj Ehlers-Vladislav Namestnikov-Cole Perfetti (2024-25) Winnipeg Jets 53.3% 53.6% 24 558 Alexis Lafreniere-Vincent Trocheck-Artemi Panarin (2024-25) New York Rangers 52.8% 55.7% 37 666

Some may have qualms with the inclusion of the Jets and Rangers, because they are technically \"middle six\" lines on their respective teams and not the actual \"first\" line. However, Artemi Panarin absolutely deserves star consideration, and Nikolaj Ehlers is a fantastic forward who\'s been underutilized for years and may finally be able to prove his star power on the Carolina Hurricanes next season. They belong here.

The rest? First lines, all of them on teams going for it (even though the Bruins and Rangers missed the playoffs in 2024-25), and all of them powered by their elite wingers. Only one line, though, can claim two star wingers: the Calgary Flames, with Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau flanking Elias Lindholm.

Tkachuk, Gaudreau, and Lindholm spent an eye-popping 965 minutes together--that was all 82 games of the season--and posted a bonkers 62.2 xGF% and strong 58 CF%. That level of consistency, health, and dominance is rare in the NHL, especially for a top line built on the wings and not down the middle. The only top line that comes close is Dallas\', with Jason Robertson being the star winger, and Pavelski and Hintz being very good players in their own rights.

This Flames line is what inspired my discussion with Ryan Gilbert on the podcast in the video above. While not the norm, it\'s testament that you can build a top-of-the-league first line from the outside in--and it\'s something the Flyers have put themselves in a position to accomplish, if everything breaks right.

Why It Matters for the Flyers

The line of Matthew Tkachuk, Elias Lindholm and Johnny Gaudreau was, arguably, the best NHL line of the last four years. They played a full 82 games together, totaling nearly a thousand minutes at 5-on-5, and had the underlying stats to back up the hype. Tkachuk was a 23-year old star on the rise, Gaudreau was an established star at 27, and Lindholm was...a career middle-six guy.

Look, no statistic can neatly encapsulate a player\'s entire career but, even so, it\'s quite clear that Lindholm was never a top-line, Selke-contending (he finished second in 2021-22), point-per-game, play-driving center. That became immediately apparent the seasons following the departures of Tkachuk and Gaudreau, then exacerbated by a disastrous first season in Boston. Lindholm isn\'t that guy.

For one season, though, he was--and it was the strength of his elite wingers that elevated him. So how does this relate to the Flyers? Well, there are some odd coincidences between that Flames line and where the Flyers could be in three or so years.

Let\'s consider the Flyers\' young talent. Matvei Michkov is clearly on a star-level trajectory, scoring 26 goals and 63 points in 80 games as a 19-year old rookie. Gaudreau, as a 21-year old rookie, scored 24 goals and 64 points in 80 games--eerily similar. Michkov and Gaudreau are different players stylistically, but they are both small-ish wingers with elite traits. That\'s one parallel.

Next, there\'s Porter Martone, whose most frequent player comp is--that\'s right--Matthew Tkachuk. They fit a similar profile of big, power forwards, and while we don\'t have any NHL data on Martone, they had comparable draft years: Martone put up 37 goals and 98 points with the Brampton Steelheads, and Tkachuk had 30 goals and 107 points with the London Knights. It\'s worth noting, too, that while Tkachuk scored more, that Knights team was unreal: he had Mitch Marner, Robert Thomas, and Evan Bouchard helping him out. The second highest scorer on Martone\'s Steelheads was Carson Rehkopf--not quite the same level of talent. Still, that draft year production is a second parallel.

The Flyers, so far, have two young players with similar profiles to two-thirds of one of the best lines in recent memory: an elite but small-ish winger, and a scoring, high-compete power winger. That leaves one gap, and it\'s the one down the middle.

If that Flames line taught us anything, the solution doesn\'t need to be a high-end center--just someone who\'s good enough.

\"Good enough\" is a broad description, but there are a couple things that allowed Lindholm to excel in a first-line center role. First and foremost, his hockey smarts; Lindholm is an intelligent center who can play with pace and knows where he needs to be to best facilitate the players on his flanks. Second, while Lindholm isn\'t the most skilled player around, he has enough--and in 2021-22, it was good enough to keep up with his wingers and not hold them back: he scored 61 of his 82 points at 5-on-5, while Gaudreau scored 90 of his 115 points and Tkachuk scored 75 of his 104 points. Tkachuk and Gaudreau elevated Lindholm, and he hung right with them, which isn\'t always the case.

It\'s early, but it\'s possible the Flyers already have a center who could fit a Lindholm-like role between Martone and Michkov. Jack Nesbitt isn\'t a great skater, but he\'s smart and has decent skill; Jett Luchanko isn\'t much of a goal scorer, but he\'s fast, strong, detailed, and can pass. On any other team, with any other wingers, Luchanko or Nesbitt would not be a clear option at \"1C.\" On the Flyers, however, there\'s a chance one of them has the right chemistry with Michkov and Martone to have it all fall into place the same way it did for Lindholm with Tkachuk and Gaudreau.

What Went Wrong for the Flames

I can already hear you in the comments: \"That Flames team didn\'t win anything!\" Well, they won the Pacific Division, bounced the Dallas Stars in Round One, then bowed out to the Edmonton Oilers in a solid Battle of Alberta--no shame in losing to Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Flames didn\'t win a Cup, but they didn\'t fold in the playoffs, either.

What sunk the Flames wasn\'t their top line, but their top heaviness; the team\'s second most-used line was Andrew Mangiapane, Mikael Backlund, and Blake Coleman. Those are all fine players, but that\'s more of a third line masquerading as a second line. In fairness, Sean Monahan struggled with injury all season and missed the playoffs entirely. Things may\'ve gone differently had he been healthy.

The Flames defense was good, but not great: Noah Hanifin and Rasmus Andersson are good players, but they weren\'t exactly top-pair defensemen at that point; Hanifin has become that, and Andersson may just be a second pair guy. They put up good numbers together that season (56.8 xGF%, 55.2 CF%), but at 23 and 24 years old, respectively, and playing the second most minutes of any NHL pair in the regular season, they may\'ve been a bit out of their depth by the time the playoffs rolled around.

The Flames\' biggest strength outside of their top forward line was Jacob Markstrom in net, who finished second in Vezina voting that season, but went a bit cold in the playoffs. His outstanding goaltending in the regular season covered up a lot of those roster shortcomings, but \"goalies are voodoo\" and you can\'t count on regular season performance carrying over into the playoffs (hello, Connor Hellebuyck).

The Flames had a lot of things going for them, but one dynamite forward line and little else up front, an unproven, young top defensive pair, and a goalie running out of juice, ended their playoff bid. Calgary never got to run it back, either, because Gaudreau left in free agency and Tkachuk forced a trade to the Florida Panthers. It was a one-and-done run, and the Flames haven\'t been back to the playoffs since.

How the Flyers Can Succeed

Lack of depth--especially at forward--is a problem the Flyers will most certainly not have. If the Flyers\' top line three or four years from now is Porter Martone, Jett Luchanko (or Jack Nesbitt), and Matvei Michkov, that means Travis Konecny--a top-line caliber player--is on your second line. Alongside him could be a revitalized Trevor Zegras, and perhaps an ever-improving Tyson Foerster, who would finally have two facilitators that can set up his much-touted shot. Don\'t even get me started on how over-qualified the Flyers\' \"bottom six\" would be at that point. Heck, maybe you spread the wealth and swap Konecny and Michkov for a more balanced attack in the top six.

However, this scenario--where the Flyers don\'t need a true-blue top-flight center to round out the forward group--hinges on two things: Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone becoming star-level, elite players. The statistics show you can build an outstanding, play-driving line from the outside in, but it requires at least one superstar level talent on the wing--though ideally two, like the Flames had. Then, the center doesn\'t need to be a Selke contender or have a shot at the Rocket Richard--they just need to be smart enough to keep up. It is a slight disadvantage to build from the wings and not down the middle, but the Flyers certainly have the players to make it work the way Calgary did. All that\'s left is for Michkov and Martone to live up to their potential, and one of the centers in the pipeline to show they\'re up to the task.

Talking Points