The second week of July is usually a quieter one across the NHL. The draft is over. The free agent frenzy of July 1 is in the rearview mirror, with just a few veteran stragglers taking their time to decide on their next (or final) stop.
All of that is still the case this year, but Danny Briere and the Philadelphia Flyers kept the frenzy going by tendering a five-year, $90 million offer sheet to Anaheim Ducks restricted free agent Leo Carlsson. The 21-year-old center was one of a few Ducks RFAs, and Briere saw an opportunity for perhaps a little payback for the Cutter Gauthier trade, but more so a prime chance to land a franchise forward.
The Flyers and Ducks have delayed their trips to the cottage, as have some other GMs around the league, as they await Pat Verbeek’s decision.
Carlsson’s contract comes with a league-record $18 million average annual value, although that may not last too long as the richest salary given the young phenoms due contracts in the near future.
As with any offer sheet, most of the knee-jerk reactions figured that the Ducks would match the contract. Why? Because they have to. Because Pat Verbeek said he would, while likely expecting it to come in at around $12 or $15 million, not $18M.
Things are starting to change in league circles, though, as Jeff Marek said on Monday that he’s hearing more people say that the Ducks may not match.
And what started as a sure thing may not be so certain. In fact, there’s a decent argument to be made that the Ducks won’t match the offer sheet, unless Verbeek’s hubris gets in the way.
Anaheim is in salary cap hell
The Ducks didn’t want to make any significant moves this offseason in order to have the cap space to sign restricted free agents Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Pavel Mintuykov. However, they did decide to sign veteran free agent A.J. Greer to a four-year contract with an AAV of $4.25 million.
After the Flyers signed Carlsson to the offer sheet, the vultures started circling on the Ducks’ aforementioned RFAs. Gauthier is ineligible for an offer sheet, but Mintuykov was ripe for the picking.
While teams threatened, the Ducks were ultimately able to come to terms on a long-term contract with their defenseman. However, it came in at a $7.2M cap hit for five years, which is a few million higher than most outlets projected. That has a significant impact on the Ducks and, therefore, on the Flyers’ offer sheet to Carlsson.
Anaheim now has $12.7 million in cap space with Carlsson on the books and Mintyukov under contract. Gauthier is still due a contract, with projections anywhere between $8 and $10 million for the 41-goal scorer.
Knowing how Gauthier handled himself in Philadelphia, it would be surprising if the winger took a pay cut in Anaheim. In fact, Gauthier could now do the Flyers a favor by demanding a larger contract.
There is the option for Gauthier to take a one-year deal and hope for a bigger payday next season, but that would still make it difficult for Anaheim to ice a competitive NHL roster with Carlsson making $18 million. And then Gauthier would be open to an offer sheet next offseason, so that makes it even less likely.
Ducks would have to trade key pieces for cheap
The Ducks are already fielding calls on some of their forwards, looking to shed salary in order to retain Carlsson. Frank Vatrano’s name is already out there, with the winger having a $4.5M cap hit for the next two seasons.
Vatrano’s production cratered last season, putting up just 9 points in 50 games. He fell out of favor as well, averaging just 11:49 per game after playing 17:33 a night the year prior. Granted, his play warranted more ice time that season as he recorded 45 points (21 goals).
But will a team want to pay a fair price for Vatrano in a trade? And what would the market even look like for a declining 32-year-old winger?
The Ducks could move a few pending free agents, such as Chris Kreider ($6.5M) or Alex Killorn ($6.25M). Both of those players have some sort of trade protection, though, so it’s not as simple as dumping them off to another team. And they’re not chopped liver, either. Kreider is one of the Ducks’ top-six wingers, with Killorn a key cog in the middle six as well.
They could be more appetizing pieces for certain teams. Still, they’re both closer to 40 than 30, and the rest of the league knows how desperate the Ducks are to move off of some of their larger contracts.
Let’s say that the Ducks are able to trade Vatrano and Killorn to clear the cap space for Carlsson. They throw in a mid-round pick or so as a sweetener.
That just solves the problem for one year and kicks the can down the road. The Ducks would then be paying $32 million to Carlsson, Troy Terry, and Mikael Granlund, and over $12M more to Vatrano, Greer, and Ryan Poehling. That’s not to mention whatever Gauthier demands, which could easily be at least $10 million at this point.
Verbeek can make moves with four first-round picks
One of the most important pieces that Verbeek should be weighing is what exactly he could do with the four first-round picks the Flyers would send to the Ducks in compensation for Carlsson.
While these picks would realistically be in the second half of the round, as the Flyers should be able to make the playoffs with Carlsson leading the way, the allure of a first-round pick still means something in the NHL.
It’s like the gold standard. No matter how the league changes, first-round picks have a set value for most GMs around the league, give or take a little bit.
This summer is likely just the beginning of player empowerment across the NHL. Brady Tkachuk forced his way to Florida just months after Quinn Hughes requested a trade, landing in Minnesota. Dylan Larkin and Zach Werenski followed suit, although the defenseman now states that he wants to stay in Columbus.
The Red Wings may not want strictly futures for Larkin, but four first-round picks would give Verbeek some ammo to gather the assets needed for a top-tier player. And if the next player who asks out is on a rebuilding team — say, the Maple Leafs? — maybe Verbeek can entice them with a few first-round picks headlining the package.
What if Leo Carlsson doesn’t want to be in Anaheim?
An offer sheet can be signed by a player for any number of reasons. It doesn’t have to be about wanting to leave the team he’s on. It could simply be about wanting to make the most amount of money he possibly can. That’s capitalism, baby.
But if there is any sliver of doubt that Carlsson doesn’t want to be a Duck, maybe Verbeek will follow Keith Jones’ lead and say he won’t be a Duck then.
Verbeek could easily use this reasoning to balk at the offer sheet and let Carlsson fly to Philadelphia. He’d then be able to pay Gauthier whatever he wanted, and the same goes for Beckett Sennecke when the third overall pick is due a raise in a few years. Of course, he’d have to make some other move this offseason to remain competitive with an offensive coach behind the bench as well.
All in all, it’s not as simple as an easy match for Verbeek and the Ducks. In reality, not matching the offer sheet may be the best course of action for Anaheim.
