Summer is slowly wilting away. We are all collectively counting just how many weekends we have left that could be spent on a patio somewhere, enjoying a beverage of some kind, or just even think of being outside. How many days left until we need a second layer of clothing? That plant you put outside is probably going to die in a month or two.
But, this change of season means one thing: Hockey is back. The sport we love so much is set to return in under a month’s time, but until then, all we have is the brief snippet of news and hot gossip from around the league that spring up in the dead heat of August like a whack-a-mole that people claw and grab onto; so desperate to talk about anything relevant.
Speaking of which: Nashville Predators top prospect and potentially the best goaltender outside of the NHL, Yaroslav Askarov, has reportedly asked for a trade outside of the organization. Ever since the Predators committed to Juuse Saros with an eight-year deal that essentially means the Finnish netminder will spend the rest of his days as Nashville’s starter.
With the older veteran now blocking his path to becoming a full-time NHL starter himself, Askarov wants out (obviously), and with the Flyers needing top-tier help in essentially every position, a large majority is clamoring for them to make a move for the 22-year-old Russian. He is the Next Great Goaltender in many people’s eyes, so it is the same case as it is with a lot of young players who fans of other teams want their favorite team to trade for — some context actually matters.
And not to be the Debbiest of Downers, but there are things that clearly matter to the Flyers and real-life situations on this team that have to be considered. You add up all of this context and it points to one giant sign that reads the Philadelphia Flyers will not be trading for Yaroslav Askarov before the season starts.
There are just a couple things to consider.
Belief in Sam Ersson
The Flyers have shown already this summer that they believe in the young players they have currently on the NHL roster. They reportedly didn’t select defenseman Zeev Buium in the first round of the 2024 NHL Draft because they already have smallish, crafty defensemen like Cam York, Jamie Drysdale, and Emil Andrae, in the system. They don’t need another one.
With this Askarov rumor, it feels like the same thing. We know for certain that they like Sam Ersson. They believe in his talent so much that even before his entry-level contract was up, they signed him to another deal to guarantee to keep him around at a low cap hit, because they knew he would be sticking around and be good enough to be a starter.
If they were to really want Askarov on this team, it would most likely involve trading Ersson either in the same trade or sending him off to a different team in a separate deal. Knowing that they really believe in the 24-year-old Swede (yes, he is just 20 months older than Askarov), it doesn’t make sense for them to give up on him and send more assets like picks and prospects to Nashville, to get a potential improvement in between the pipes.
Commitment to Ivan Fedotov
Oh, so why don’t you just trade Ivan Fedotov instead if they like Ersson so much?
Well, they did just successfully get him out of his KHL contract the year after he was sent to the Arctic Circle as part of the Russian military in one of the most bizarre NHL stories in the last decade. And they signed him to a two-year contract that makes him comfortable to stay in North America and prove himself as a good goaltender in the best league in the world.
By all accounts, they made an agreement with Fedotov that led to him being able to come overseas. That is why his salary is so large for an unproven netminder and that is why he is most certainly going to be a part of the Flyers’ tandem to start the 2024-25 season.
Other goaltender prospects
Unlike other positions, where you can really add a strong player to the top of the depth chart with only it slightly affecting players below them, with goaltending it is much more dramatic. Every team really only ever has two (duh), so any move to acquire one means so much more to the other goaltenders in the organization than it would for the team to get another winger to add to their heaping pile of other wingers.
And how the Flyers’ current situation breaks down is intriguing, if they just decided to suddenly get the hottest prospect in the position. The NHL tandem is already there. Alexei Kolosov is…well…he wants to go back to the KHL but the Flyers won’t let him go back because he’s under contract and he most certainly will just stay over there if he goes over there next season — that’s a completely different story. And when looking more long-term, teenaged goaltending duo of Carson Bjarnason and Yegor Zavragin have a whole lot of upside.
The Flyers might just be comfortable enough to see how their current crop grows. Ersson most likely still has another step to his game when he is not being forced to play a hockey game almost every day of the week, Ivan Fedotov is a big question mark when he isn’t part of the Russian military or getting used to new equipment in a new league in a new continent, and there are a couple even younger question marks that are very intriguing. Why really press your luck and show these players that the Flyers don’t believe in them, to then get Askarov, who most think can be a starter for at least the next decade? They just aren’t the team to do that and don’t think they are in any rush to do that in that position.
If they want to spend assets, we all know that getting a 22-year-old center or top defenseman makes way more sense than a 22-year-old goaltender. And that is a true position of need.
Nothing has been proven — why risk it?
While we have been told that Askarov has boundless potential ever since before he was taken at 11th overall four years ago, he really hasn’t shown anything yet.
Walk with me here: If you were shown his boxscore — never played more than nine games in the KHL, had varying success in Russia with limited sample size, then came to North America and put up a career .911 save percentage in the AHL — but you were told this is an undrafted free agent signing the Predators made, you probably wouldn’t want to trade away Sam Ersson and maybe a first-round pick for the guy.
That is of course an unfair exercise, since it takes away actual, real-life scouting from the equation, but it makes a point. Askarov is not this foregone conclusion as a goaltender who will make several All-Star appearances and lead a team eventually to a Stanley Cup. There’s nothing certain about him other than that he is a highly touted prospect.
Unlike other potential Flyers trade targets, like Trevor Zegras or Marco Rossi, Askarov feels insanely risky since we haven’t truly seen what he can do in the NHL. And for a position like goaltending, the jump to the top league in the world, might be the largest ever. It just doesn’t make sense.
Maybe not now, but later?
Now, we say all of this to mute the hubbub surrounding fans wanting the Flyers to trade for Askarov before the puck has even been dropped for the 2024-25 season. And this season is really all about finding out what this team has in its young players, after all.
Outside of the crease, Matvei Michkov is here; and players like Joel Farabee, Owen Tippett, Morgan Frost, Tyson Foerster, and Cam York, could potentially go to a new level. Is Jamie Drysdale being fully healthy completely change his game? Can Sean Couturier be good enough to not be a liability? There will be a whole lot of questions answered after 82 games.
Maybe at some point through those games, the question about the Flyers’ current goaltending tandem does get answered. Perhaps, after 20 to 25 starts, Ivan Fedotov is really just a good KHL goalie but cannot handle the speed of the NHL and puts up some terrible numbers. Maybe then, the Flyers would be much more comfortable having the difficult conversation and sending him down to the AHL. And maybe then, they can see if Nashville wants to honor Askarov’s trade request and give the Flyers and exciting young tandem under the age of 25.
In that hypothetical scenario, it would make more sense. The Flyers are still wanting to find things out this season. They don’t want to just jump at the most recent opportunity to pay a whole lot to get a player, who could then be no better than what they currently have — and then suddenly have a weaker future because of it.
Right now, it doesn’t make sense at all. We are very much in a wait-and-see scenario, but it doesn’t seem likely.
