The Flyers’ biggest offensive flaw may not be going away

A major talking point this season was the Flyers’ lack of shots. They set a franchise record for games with 25 shots or fewer, and entered the Olympic break having lost 12 of their previous 15 games. The playoffs looked to be out of reach, but a remarkable turnaround saw the Flyers go 18-7-1, with a seemingly improved offense. However, their offensive output at even strength moved very little following the break, pointing toward more of the same.

Is this just who they are?

Offensive shot rates remained consistent

Up until a disastrous month of January, the pre-Olympic break Flyers actually held a pretty solid record. The underlying process, however, was always a bit suspect, and by February the Flyers sat near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories.

At five-on-five, per 60 minutes, they generated 49.87 shot attempts (30th in the league), 23.55 shots on goal (29th), and 2.42 expected goals (27th). In terms of actual goals, they aligned closely with expectation at 2.43, ranking 21st in the league. While not league-worst, they were firmly in the bottom tier in shot generation.

With such a dramatic turnaround in results, an improved offensive output might\'ve been expected. However, the shot data does not support that. The post-break Flyers’ generation rates and league ranks showed very little meaningful improvement offensively. Further, their goal rate only rose two spots to 19th. Even over the final eight games, when they had Tyson Foerster and Porter Martone in the lineup, shot rates remained near the bottom of the league. What did change was their ability to suppress chances. And that, combined with strong goaltending from Dan Vladar and Sam Ersson, allowed the Flyers to give up a league-low rate of goals against following the break.

So while there was legitimate improvement defensively, the offense remained largely the same. The Flyers became harder to score against, but not significantly more dangerous offensively. More importantly, this is not new territory for a Rick Tocchet-coached team.

A familiar offensive profile

When grouped with Tocchet teams of the past, the 2025-26 Flyers fit in quite well. Across his stops in Tampa Bay, Arizona, and Vancouver, only once has a Tocchet-led team finished above 20th in five-on-five goals per hour, and that team finished fourth. Unsurprisingly, it was the 2023-24 Canucks, the season in which Tocchet won the Jack Adams Award.

That Vancouver team still was not particularly high-volume offensively, ranking 19th in shot attempts and 22nd in shots on goal per hour at five-on-five. The difference was chance quality. The Canucks ranked 11th in expected goals per hour, generating far more dangerous opportunities despite average-to-below average shot totals.

A second outlier is the 2019-20 Coyotes. Interestingly, they ranked 12th in both shot attempts and shots on goal per hour, making them by far the highest-volume offensive team Tocchet has coached. The quality, however, was lacking. Arizona finished 21st in expected goals and 23rd in actual goals at five-on-five, meaning that while they generated plenty of looks, they weren\'t creating dangerous chances.

The two outlier seasons are interesting for opposite reasons. The 2019-20 Coyotes generated far more volume than a typical Tocchet team but lacked high-end finishing talent and offensive efficiency. The 2023-24 Canucks, meanwhile, remained relatively average in raw shot totals while dramatically improving their chance quality. That season can be viewed as the blueprint for offensive success under Tocchet, but so far it has looked more like an exception than something that can be replicated.

Can low-event hockey win?

Now, low-event hockey is not automatically a losing formula. Strong defensive teams have consistently found playoff success, particularly when paired with elite finishing talent or dominant special teams. Still, even the league’s most defense-oriented champions consistently generated more offense than the average NHL team. From the New Jersey Devils of the 2000s to the 2006-07 Anaheim Ducks and early 2010s Los Angeles Kings, those teams all shared one common trait: they still put pucks on net.

There is, however, one recent example of a true low-shot team winning the Stanley Cup, and they were not even an especially dominant defensive group.

If this current Canadiens team were to mount a comeback in their series against the Hurricanes, they would become the worst shot-generation team to reach the Final since the 2017-18 Washington Capitals. In that regular season, the Caps finished last in the league in five-on-five shots on goal per hour, and 24th in shot attempts per hour. It’s a bit unusual to think of a team with the best goalscorer of all time as “low event,” but at least at even strength, they simply did not generate much. Their shot suppression was also unremarkable, suggesting that this was not a dominant even-strength team at all. The hang-up in replicating their success, of course, was the dominance of their power play.

When the Capitals won the Stanley Cup, T.J. Oshie and Alexander Ovechkin shared the league lead in power play goals, while Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and John Carlson finished first, second, and third in power play assists. It was one of the most dangerous special teams units in modern playoff hockey. The Flyers’ power play has finished bottom five in success rate in each of the past five seasons.

So low-event hockey can win, but if the Flyers can\'t find a way to generate more offense at even strength, they will need far more from their special teams, especially the power play.

Moving forward

While shot generation remained low this season, there is still reason to believe the offense can improve internally next year. Increased roles for Alex Bump, Tyson Foerster, and Porter Martone could help raise those numbers naturally. Foerster has already established himself as one of the Flyers’ most shoot-first forwards, while Bump and Martone both project as high-volume shooters, certainly more than much of the current roster.

If there is a positive takeaway, it is that the defensive side of the puck already looks stable. The Flyers were one of the better teams in the league at suppressing chances post-break, and that improvement, paired with strong goaltending, allowed them to thrive in lower-event games against top competition even without offensive growth. Even marginal improvement with the puck could make a meaningful difference.

The post-break improvement was not driven by a dramatic offensive transformation, and history suggests low-event hockey could remain part of the Flyers’ identity moving forward. The real question is whether they can continue shutting teams down while finding the chance quality of the 2023-24 Canucks, some of the shot volume of the 2019-20 Coyotes, or simply enough special teams impact to make a run without either.

All data via Natural Stat Trick

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Offensive shot rates remained consistent

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