Goalies are weird. They’re also quite possibly the most important position in all of sports.
While a team can contend for a Stanley Cup without strong play in net, it makes it a lot easier if a team has a bona fide No. 1 goalie — or a strong defensive system in front of a fine goalie that can go on a heater. The Flyers saw the latter option in 2010 on the way to the Stanley Cup Final, but unfortunately, haven’t been able to find a reliable top-tier goalie in the modern era.
The Philadelphia Flyers find themselves pretty set at the goaltender position entering the 2024-25 NHL season with Sam Ersson and Ivan Fedotov. They’re both under contract through 2026 with the 24-year-old Ersson at a $1.45 million cap hit and the 27-year-old Fedotov at $3.275 million. Of course, they’re also running out the clock on the last year of Cal Petersen’s $5-million cap hit, which they will bury for $1.15M of relief.
But when one of the best goalie prospects in hockey demands a trade, perhaps Danny Briere and the Flyers should pick up the phone.
Our own Thomas Williams has already outlined the logical reasons why the Flyers likely won’t be trading for Askarov. I’m not going to re-hash those points too much or even really refute them as they’re all valid.
The Flyers do believe in Ersson and have committed time and money to Fedotov. Then there are the rest of the goalie prospects, including Alexei Kolosov — another Russian netminder who doesn’t want to play in the AHL, albeit under different circumstances.
Askarov’s trade request comes at a bad time for the Flyers, and while a wait-and-see approach would be best for Philadelphia, both Nashville and the player should both want this resolved sooner rather than later.
So in writing this, I understand all of that. But that shouldn’t stop the Flyers from taking a big swing on a goalie prospect.
The nature of the goaltending position doesn’t lend itself to much flexibility, especially just a few weeks ahead of training camp. NHL teams typically only carry two goalies and the Flyers are set on an Ersson – Fedotov tandem to start the year. Acquiring Askarov could mean shipping one of those guys out — Ersson likelier than Fedotov — or they could bring in the Predators prospect with the idea of carrying three goalies on the roster.
As the NHL evolves, so does roster construction and the goalie position. Teams would typically start their No. 1 netminder 50 or 60 games a season with the backup being a clear secondary option.
Last year, 20 goalies started 50 games with 10 hitting the 55-game mark and only three playing at least 60 contests. A decade prior to that in the 2023-24 season, 19 goalies started at least 50 games, but most of them — 15 to be exact — started at least 56, and eight goalies started 60 or more games, including Philadelphia’s own Steve Mason.
Just to take it back even further, 20 years ago 16 goalies started 55 games but 12 started 60+, and four played in at least 72 games. This is clearly no longer that NHL.
The league is moving more and more towards a tandem system in net with some teams even experimenting with three goalies on the roster. In fact, the Flyers carried three goalies to start last year with Carter Hart, Ersson, and Felix Sandstrom. They were one of five teams to do so along with the Sabres, Red Wings, Kings, and Canadiens.
That’s something that the Flyers should be seriously considering for this upcoming season, whether it be Kolosov or Askarov joining Ersson and Fedotov.
But back to the focus on Askarov.
Askarov was regarded as one of the best goalie prospects leading up to being selected 11th overall in the 2020 NHL Draft. He’s since been ranked rather highly by most experts and appeared to be the future in Nashville.
It’s no secret that his North American numbers haven’t been eye-popping, but they haven’t been bad either at a .911 SV% in 92 AHL games over the last two seasons. He’s a top prospect for a reason, though, with some strong KHL numbers in a small sample size (.937 SV% in 16 games) as a teenager.
The most intriguing thing about Askarov is that his ceiling is still high and relatively unknown. Goalies drafted in the first round have a varied history. Andrei Vasilevskiy (19th overall in 2012) would be the dream scenario for Askarov, but there’s the possibility of Askarov being more of an Ilya Samsonov (22nd overall in 2015), with Jake Oettinger (26th overall in 2017) showing promise as well.
The main thing is that no one really knows what Askarov’s ceiling can be. He’s only played in three NHL games and hasn’t been anything special at the AHL level. He could turn into a franchise goalie, a solid tandem piece, or maybe just a backup. The unknown is worth the gamble, especially given the Flyers’ situation in determining who their goalie of the future will be.
Ersson has shown that he can be a great backup, but his numbers as the starter aren’t as promising. When playing in a second (or more) consecutive game, Ersson went 13-19-3 with a .890 SV% last season. When he had at least one game off, he was 10-2-4 with a .909 SV%. In terms of days of rest, he was 7-12-2 with a .879 SV% in two starts on no days rest and 19 starts on one day rest. With at least two days off between starts, Ersson went 16-9-5 with an .898 SV%. These are all smaller sample sizes, and there are other factors that can be at play, but the difference is worth noting.
Fedotov is in a similar unknown boat to Askarov. The ceiling may not be as high due to being a seventh-round pick, but he posted a .921 SV% in 133 career KHL games, including a .914 SV% with CSKA Moskva last year. The Flyers have done a lot of work to get him to North America and clearly have some faith given the two-year, $3.275-million AAV contract.
Sure, there’s a small chance that Fedotov could be as good if not better than Askarov, but the odds favor the youngster. The 22-year-old Askarov would also fit the Flyers’ timeline much better, and hell, he could maybe even develop with Fedotov as a bit of a mentor.
Of course, trading for Askarov would also come at a cost. The Flyers have three picks in each of the first and second rounds of the 2025 NHL Draft. Could they get Askarov for either Edmonton’s or Colorado’s first-round pick? Or maybe a second-round pick and a prospect? Maybe the Predators would be willing to take Alexei Kolosov and honor his request to play in the KHL for another season.
Given how hard it is to find a goalie, I wouldn’t be opposed to trading a late first-round pick or early second-round selection as the main piece in a deal for Askarov.
The Flyers are entering another season with no real expectations. If they make the playoffs? Great. If they miss them again? Fine, another lottery pick. But this is the time to unturn those stones and think outside the box. Bringing in a top goalie prospect like Askarov to share the net would be worth exploring.
