When Philadelphia Flyers general manager Danny Briere finished negotiating an eight-year, $56.8 million deal with Tyson Foerster days prior to the Leo Carlsson offer sheet, many were surprised. With Jamie Drysdale and Trevor Zegras still without deals, and needing deals before salary arbitration cases began, getting Foerster locked up for eight years appeared to be a feather in Briere’s cap. The deal most likely appears it will be the last eight-year contract Briere will be signing for some time, as the next Collective Bargaining Agreement sees the eight-year contracts for players already signed with their club reduced to seven years, while the seven-year contracts other teams could sign an unrestricted free agent to is reduced to six years.
There are some who will argue it was premature to give Foerster such a long-term deal, especially after coming off an injury-plagued season. He ended the year with 13 goals, scoring 10 of them before his Dec. 1 injury against Pittsburgh. And through two full seasons, last year’s 29-game season for Foerster, and the eight-game stint in 2022-23, Foerster has 61 goals in 195 regular season games. In layman’s terms, he’s basically scoring one goal just over every three games. With an 84-game schedule, that would put Foerster at 28 goals on an average season. The Flyers (and Foerster) believe he’s capable of hitting 30 to 35 goals it appears, with dreams of 40 dancing in both the player’s and the team’s heads.
But is it worth forking over that amount of cash hoping Foerster shines, or at least pans out to be worthy of that cap hit? Well, we’ll take a look at the changing landscape regarding players, the escalating cap ceiling, comparable contracts and players, and how $7.1 million Average Annual Value today might end up looking like a steal as soon as 2027-28, the first year Foerster’s new contract kicks in.
Avoids any drama while securing a piece of the puzzle
When Foerster signed his two-year contract with the Flyers as a restricted free agent, he was being paid a total of $7.5 million, or an AAV of $3.75 million per year. When he started his contract, he took up 3.93 per cent of the overall Flyers cap space. That’s not a lot. Regarding this upcoming 2026-27 season, his cap hit is seventh among Philadelphia forwards, and eleventh in terms of the overall team, just slightly above Joseph Woll’s two-year deal. And in terms of percentages, it stands at 3.6 per cent. The cap rising naturally means Foerster’s share of the cap percentage is diminished slightly. And it’s that idea which Philadelphia is counting on to ensure that they get maximum value from Foerster for the $7.1 million AAV until 2034-35.
Had Briere decided to see what Foerster was capable of this season, and then begin negotiations at the end of 2026-27, he could’ve been wading into unchartered territory. A career-high in goals and points from Foerster, and a great playoff, would’ve meant the AAV probably is in the $8 million range, or nearly a million more per year than what he’s slated to get. Or, negotiations could’ve turned sour, and you’re left with a situation that got messy very quickly. One only has to look at what’s happening with Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck, Detroit’s Dylan Larkin, and Columbus defenseman Zach Werenski to understand that players have a bit more clout in terms of where they want to play. Some teams might decide to play hardball, and not give in to those demands from any or all three. That’s not something the Flyers needed to become a party to. Instead, as much as some still have their minds wrapped around the dead cap or flat cap era, the salaries are going up. Nothing is going to change that. And it appears Briere isn’t a GM who is going to fight that. If you need proof, look at the Carlsson offer sheet. This forward, logical thinking shouldn’t hurt the Flyers much, if at all.
As well, Briere might have also had a slight advantage in that Foerster’s agent is Murray Koontz. Koontz is also the agent for Owen Tippett, another player Briere inked to a long-term deal in early 2024. Tippett’s eight-year deal sees him eating up just six per cent of the cap this coming season, and that percentage will decrease to 4.2 per cent in the final year of the deal (2031-32). Although every player’s situation and demands are different, having that experience with Koontz previously had to be a bit helpful heading into negotiatons with Foerster.
Cap percentage will gradually decline
Barring some global disaster, it looks like the National Hockey League’s revenues are going to be in good shape the next few years. As a result, some players like Carlsson and Cale Makar are going to get near max levels of compensation it seems. Others, like Chicago’s Bowen Byram, are going to make a lot of coin in the hopes they turn into something strong. Otherwise, $75 million over six years seems like lunacy. When it comes to Foerster, the Flyers are making a bet, but a rather sensible one, that Foerster will be that sniper for the majority of this forthcoming eight-year deal. And should he live up to that expectation, or exceed it, then Philadelphia is laughing.
Foerster’s deal begins with him taking up 6.3 per cent of the cap. Based on future projections, it then drops to 5.8 per cent in year two, 5.4 per cent in year three, 5.1 per cent in year four, and then 4.8 per cent in year five. The final three years sees a decline of one-fifth of one percent year over year, meaning when the deal ends, Foerster’s hit is going to be just 4.2 per cent of the cap hit. That’s just 0.27 per cent more than Foerster’s cap hit percentage was when he began his current contract in 2025-26. In relative terms, it’s a deal that is currently ridiculous team-friendly and cap-friendly to the Flyers. And should Foerster deliver, it’s theft by Briere and the front office.
As well, by locking up some pieces now, like the Flyers have with Zegras, Drysdale, Foerster, and Vladar, they are giving themselves some flexibility moving forward to finally (possibly) land that high-end top-line center they tried to capture with Carlsson. Obviously, there are always contracts with RFAs and UFAs that need to be considered. Plus, Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone are going to need deals at some point down the road. But having critical pieces under contract for a while is often a plus. Provided they’re performing.
Deal shines compared to some others
Two players which seem to mirror what Foerster is capable of are Kirill Marchenko of the Blue Jackets, and Utah’s Lawson Crouse. Both seem like strong two-way players in the vein of Foerster, and both can put the puck in the net like Foerster tends to do. Although Marchenko could still get locked up long-term before his deal runs out, he is in the last year of a deal that sees him with a $3.85 million AAV. Almost identical to Foerster’s current deal.
However, instead of banking on Marchenko to continue doing what he’s doing, it appears Columbus might be taking more of a wait-and-see approach. And that could backfire spectacularly. Another 30-goal season and Marchenko could be seeking a number in the $8 million to possibly $9 million range per year. Marchenko, who is 26, is two years older than Foerster. So if Marchenko opts for a shorter deal as a restricted free agent, it’s conceivable the cap hit is much higher than Foerster’s. Either way, as it stands now, there’s uncertainty regarding Marchenko and Columbus.
The same can be said for Utah’s Lawson Crouse. Crouse scored 20 or more goals in four of the last five seasons. He’s earning $4.3 million AAV in the fifth and final year of his current deal. At 29, Crouse will hit free agency if a deal isn’t reached. Which could make the asking price more than what Foerster’s $7.1 million AAV will be moving forward. It’s another reason why Foerster’s deal looks more appealing with each passing day.
Since Foerster’s signing, the following players signed deals that will surpass (and nearly triple in some cases) his cap hit: Cale Makar, Macklin Celebrini, Patrick Kane, Jason Robertson, Connor Bedard, Trevor Zegras, Simon Nemec, Pavel Mintyukov, Leo Carlsson, John Carlson, and Jacob Trouba. Since July 1, 2025, the following players signed deals with a higher AAV than Foerster’s $7.1 million: Ivan Demidov, Rasmus Andersson, Nico Hischier, Bowen Byram, Pavel Dorofeyev, Brandt Clarke, Zach Benson, Alex Tuch, Darren Raddysh, Dylan Holloway, Nick Schmaltz, Artemi Panarin, Philip Broberg, Adrian Kempe, Shane Pinto, Martin Necas, Logan Cooley, Thomas Hartley, Lane Hutson, Jack Eichel, Kyle Connor, Connor McDavid, Jackson LaCombe, Luke Hughes, Kirill Kaprizov, Dustin Wolf, Gabriel Vilardi, Nikolaj Ehlers, K’Andre Miller, Brock Boeser, and Thatcher Demko.
Although he only played 29 games in the 2025-26 regular season, and didn’t make a huge impact on the year, Foerster’s wins above replacement (WAR) was 1.4 according to Hockeystats.com. That stat, despite the abbreviated, injury-plagued season, is higher than the following aforementioned players for 25-26: Trouba, Hughes, Nemec, Boeser, Mintyukov, Byram, Andersson, Bedard, Kane, Pinto, Miller, Kempe, and Clarke. Almost one-third of the players who have higher AAVs than Foerster yet lower WARs. In 2024-25, Foerster was 105th overall in the stat at 1.98, second on the team to Matvei Michkov. In short, Foerster is looking like he could be a difference maker with a deal that could be very economical as he continues in his career.
In the end
Foerster’s deal probably depends mostly on if his shoulder can withstand the rigors of a regular season. It apparently passed the test on his return down the stretch, and in the playoffs. But if he is healthy, and finds that scoring touch that came naturally to him before Dec. 1, 2025, then Philadelphia looks to be moving forward with an integral piece of their future. And one that is locked up for the next nine years with cap hits that a lot of rival general managers are probably somewhat jealous of.
Stats courtesy of Puckpedia.com and Capwages.com.
