The Philadelphia Flyers are completely frozen until they get word whether or not the Anaheim Ducks will match their offer sheet to star center Leo Carlsson. Nothing can be done without knowing if the 21-year-old Swede is going to be coming to Philadelphia along with his $18-million AAV that could make them pinch a whole lot of pennies for the rest of the offseason.
Anaheim has until Friday afternoon to make their decision and we’re just waiting here, thinking of various reasons why the Ducks will or will not match it. We’re coming up with fantasy lineups featuring Carlsson. We’re exploring what it means for the Flyers’ future Stanley Cup contention window. Heck, we’re even coming to terms that a player this entire fan base despises really has an opportunity to help the Flyers out.
The entire hockey world has been enveloped by this offer sheet and what it means for the NHL. So much so that some websites are creating entire new little games or visualizations related to this offer sheet.
Over at HockeyStats.com, they created a little “Offer Sheet Lottery” that is highly addictive and maybe a perfect representation of the arguable gamble that the Flyers are making by handing over four unprotected first-round picks for Carlsson, should the Ducks not match the offer sheet (since that is the level of draft pick compensation for the Ducks).
You spin the slots and four players that were previously selected in the first round appear, to really show what could be available for the Ducks should they not match, or what the Flyers could be missing out on in exchange for Leo Carlsson.
For this exercise, I am going to be doing five total spins — these are my first five ever spins on this website, just to make it feel more like an actual experiment — and I did turn on the filter of no top-10 picks. Since, we have to assume that barring any terrible injury luck of the Flyers only scoring on two percent of their shots, they are at least going to be in the mushy middle of playoff contention with Carlsson. Even if they don’t make the playoffs, it isn’t likely that a top-10 pick is in their future after finally getting a No. 1 center with this current roster and the young players potentially getting so much better.
Anyways, let’s look at the spins.
Spin 1: Sbisa, Koskinen, Watson, Noesen
Oh boy, oh boy. These are some names. Luca Sbisa obviously jumps off the page as a player who was actually in Philadelphia very briefly, and he was simply never good enough to be a player in the first round. Mikko Koskinen was a 31st-overall pick by the New York Islanders in 2009 and is a 6-foot-7 goalie. He played four games for the Islanders in 2010-11 before being fed up with the AHL and going to be one of the best netminders in the KHL. He eventually made his NHL return with the Oilers for four seasons and was just fine. Meh.
Austin Watson is a goon who peaked in junior hockey and Stefan Noesen peaked as a bottom-six forward. The decision is easy.
That is a remarkable first spin. It’s really spanning a whole lot of years and just a whole lot of mistakes multiple teams made with their first-round pick. It’s a slam dunk no thanks.
Spin 2: Suzuki, Merkley, Knight, Jarvis
My eyes lit up and maybe welled up with some tears looking at this spin. While the previous spin was a bunch of questionable decisions, these players are really the best outcome you can dream of.
Nick Suzuki is obviously an immense talent and is arguably a player that Leo Carlsson hopes to become one day. He’s the type of No. 1 center that the Flyers can dream on — not someone on the McDavid/Matthews/MacKinnon/Barkov tier but a step below and a perfect playmaker for their talented wingers. That one pick makes you question things.
Ryan Merkley is extremely whatever — he was a gamble on skill but some personal stuff and him being a 6-foot defenseman really created a barrier to him making it in the NHL. Spencer Knight is a bona fide starter now that he got traded to the Chicago Blackhawks so that feels like a very safe bet to make. And then you just throw in Seth Jarvis just because you can and it’s starting to feel cruel.
This is an insane haul and if the Ducks got something like this because they refused to give one player a whole lot of money, they would be overjoyed.
The one thing that brings me pause on this is that Suzuki, Knight, and Jarvis were all picked in the first 13 selections of their Draft. Meaning, the Flyers would have to miss the playoffs for the majority of the seasons that they have Carlsson on their roster. That feels like an honest nightmare and there’s probably bigger problems than not having your first-round pick, if that happens.
It feels improbable to have this amount of talent coming from these picks. Obviously, we’re taking these players over Carlsson.
Spin 3: Samuelsson, Foote, Mukhamadullin, L’Heureux
Mattias Samuelsson is someone who has rejuvenated his career. Nolan Foote actually just signed a contract with the Flyers and will most likely start the season in the AHL. Shakir Mukhamadullin went to Edmonton in the Darnell Nurse cap dump. Zachary L’Heureux is a player more well known for trying to kill players on the ice than score goals.
It’s an incredibly interesting collection of players and honestly, a very Flyers-coded group of players.
If the Ducks match the offer sheet and the Flyers get their four first-round picks back, we can totally see them targeting these sorts of players in the second half of the first round. Two very big-but-mobile defensemen (and Samuelsson already has a Flyers connection), a player who loves violence, and a smaller forward who was fairly skilled in junior but never really put it all together. That really feels like these high-floor bets the Flyers have made previously, and maybe a Sokolovskii-esque decision in taking Mukhamadullin.
Anyways, we’d obviously rather have Leo Carlsson.
Spin 4: Roy, Thompson, Foote, Bernard-Docker
Another collection of just funny guys. Jeremy Roy is currently in the KHL and never even made his NHL debut. Tage Thompson is a gold-medal winning forward and a top-line player for the Buffalo Sabres. Cal Foote is, well, not a good guy, and Jacob Bernard-Docker is basically an AHL tweener who might get a stretch of games on a bottom pair in the NHL.
The standout is clearly Tage Thompson and this is where the debate starts to get fun. Thompson is really an ideal top-line player. He’s versatile in the sense that he is a better winger but can play down the middle. He scores goals and he’s massive. What more could you ask for?
One of the main points in this is that it was never fully clear whether or not Thompson would become the player that he is today. Thompson as a prospect was much different than the player we see leading the Sabres to the playoffs and winning gold medals. He was seen as a mistake to take in the first round by some scouts, or the St. Louis Blues just wanting a big guy.
Anyways, there is a real debate but since Carlsson is the more natural center and right now has a higher ceiling, then we’re taking Carlsson. I could be swayed either way, though.
Spin 5: Schroeder, Pysyk, Percy, Schmaltz
And finally, we really get a full collection of first-round busts. This is what we want to point to whenever a fan is concerned about giving up four first-round picks. This is the ideal outcome if Anaheim takes them and makes all these selections.
Jordan Schroeder was a 22nd overall pick by the Canucks in 2009 and played out a completely fine NHL career as a 5-foot-9 center. He played 165 games, scored 42 points, and was largely an AHL guy over 10 years playing pro in North America. He eventually played in Europe — three years in the KHL, two in Switzerland, and one in the SHL — but that is perfectly fine career, maybe just not someone taken that high.
Mark Pysyk was a bottom-pairing defenseman that had good underlying numbers almost every single season but could never handle top-four minutes. Stuart Percy is an infamous bust with the Toronto Maple Leafs who has been playing in Czechia since COVID. And Jordan Schmaltz is having a better career as a podcaster than a hockey player.
That’s a group that is easy to say no to. You get a bunch of actual first-round busts and we don’t really like to use that term. But if you barely play in the NHL after having a hyped-up junior career, then you’re a bust. And that’s three of the four players here.
It should give everyone some solace that four of the five spins were either very easy decisions or a toss up between Carlsson and another good top-line player. Add in the fact that the only spin where we would easily say yes to all four players and it would drive Flyers fans crazy if the Ducks got that amount of talent with these draft picks, were all top-13 picks and that feels not plausible to happen, then we’re feeling really good about this whole thing.
Pat Verbeek, if you’re reading this, just completely ignore what I just wrote. The Ducks are clearly going to get the next Nick Suzuki, Seth Jarvis, and Spencer Knight from these picks. That’s so sick! Just think of how many contract negotiations you can mess up with those sorts of players! The Flyers are clearly not going to make the playoffs if you give them a No. 1 center. Those picks are going to be so good!
And Pat, Leo Carlsson? He’s a bum! A really bad player, of course! You don’t even want him! He doesn’t want you! Just let him go and think of all these players you can draft.
Okay, enough of that.
