While the Flyers’ 2023-24 season may’ve fizzled out at the end, their fall from the playoff race gives us a rough of their pre-lottery draft position: 12th overall. That means two things: how weak the Eastern Conference was that the Flyers weren’t eliminated from playoff contention until the final week of the season and still ended up higher in the order than the Minnesota Wild and St. Louis Blues, and that the Flyers have a better pick than many of us assumed they would when they were in the thick of jockeying for a playoff spot.
For some, 12th overall would be an indictment of the organization. They’re a rebuilding team and failed to get another top-ten pick because the team overperformed. For others, 12th is a victory — we got to experience a fun, enjoyable season of Flyers hockey for the first time in years, but they’re still drafting several spots higher than we anticipated just a few weeks ago.
In the interest of getting a jump on the draft, we’re going to take a look at players taken with the 12th pick since 2005 — the beginning of the salary cap era. First and foremost, just because the Flyers are projected to pick 12th doesn’t mean they will: the Flyers could win the draft lottery (doubt it, but they cannot move higher than 2nd overall if they do win), a team behind them could win the lottery (it’ll be the Penguins), or the Flyers could do something spicy and trade up/back closer to (or on!) draft day. We’ll also do a bonus round for players picked shortly after 12th, as an exercise in taking swings and that a sharp front office might see something other teams don’t.
The Draftees
2005: Marc Staal (D), New York Rangers
Yep, Marc Staal was drafted nearly 20 years ago. Staal had a very successful run with the Rangers for many years, and is now (likely) wrapping up his career after a few journeyman stops that saw him play in Detroit, Florida and Philly. Not bad for a 12th overall pick.
2006: Bryan Little (C), Atlanta Thrashers
Little’s career, unfortunately, ended early due to concussions and other injuries. He was an effective, if unflashy player, who totaled 217 goals and 521 points in 843 games with the Thrashers and Winnipeg Jets.
2007: Ryan McDonagh (D), Montreal Canadiens
McDonagh never played a game for the Habs, but he did win back-to-back Stanley Cups with the Tampa Bay Lightning and is now on a red hot Nashville Predators team. Good player, but not a star. A guy like this would be a solid addition to any team.
2008: Tyler Myers (D), Buffalo Sabres
A total hockeyman pick, Myers is one thing above all else–no literally, above all else, because he’s 6-foot-8. Hockeymen love their big defensemen. He’s had a decent career and is on a playoff Vancouver Canucks team now.
Bonus Pick: Erik Karlsson (D), 15th overall to the Ottawa Senators
2009: Calvin de Haan (D), New York Islanders
De Haan’s had a solid career with several teams, and now he’s on the third pair of a Tampa Bay Lightning team battling the Florida Panthers in the first round of the playoffs. But his peak was a defenseman that you could just simply get in free agency.
2010: Cam Fowler (D), Anaheim Ducks
This is an interesting one, and a little difficult to grade considering how bad the Ducks have been in recent years. Fowler was mostly effective through the 2010s when the Ducks were still a relevant team, but being the team’s de facto No. 1 during the rebuild may have been piling too much on him.
Bonus Pick: Vladimir Tarasenko (RW), 16th overall to the St. Louis Blues
2011: Ryan Murphy (D), Carolina Hurricanes
This is the first true miss of the lot. Murphy played 175 NHL games and has been bouncing between the AHL, KHL and Euro leagues since 2019. An ugly pick.
Bonus Pick: J.T. Miller (C), 15th overall to the New York Rangers
2012: Mikhail Grigorenko (C), Buffalo Sabres
Two misses in a row! Grigorenko played 249 NHL games, and has spent most of his time since 2017 in the KHL save a stop in Columbus in 2020-21.
2013: Max Domi (C), Phoenix Coyotes
Domi’s on his seventh NHL team already, and mostly is what he is: a shit-stirrer who can provide some secondary scoring. A useful player, but maybe not the best to use a high draft pick on.
Bonus Pick: Josh Morrissey (D), 13th overall to the Winnipeg Jets
2014: Brendan Perlini (LW), Arizona Coyotes
Man, the Yotes really didn’t know how to draft too well, huh? Perlini’s currently with the AHL Charlotte Checkers, and has spent most of his career as a tweener.
Bonus Pick: Dylan Larkin (C), 15th overall to the Detroit Red Wings
2015: Denis Gurianov (RW/LW), Dallas Stars
Another familiar face! The Flyers won’t be keeping Gurianov around next season as another reclamation project, but considering how loaded the 2015 draft was, this pick was a miss. Don’t feel too bad for Dallas, though: they got Roope Hintz in the second round.
Bonus Pick: Take your pick…Jake DeBrusk (LW, BOS), Mat Barzal (C, NYI), Kyle Connor (LW, WPG) 14th, 16th and 17th, respectively.
2016: Michael McLeod (C), New Jersey Devils
Charged with sexual assault in the Hockey Canada allegations. Moving on.
Bonus Pick: Charlie McAvoy (D, BOS) and Jakob Chychrun (D, ARI), 14th and 16th, respectively.
2017: Martin Necas (C/RW), Carolina Hurricanes
Necas has turned into quite a good player for the Canes, which is exactly what you’d expect from the smartest team in the league. He plays a top-six role and has 243 points in 362 games; not a star, but an excellent complementary player who’s still growing.
Bonus Pick: Nick Suzuki, 13th overall to the Vegas Golden Knights.
2018: Noah Dobson (D), New York Islanders
It took a few years, but Dobson established himself this season as a star defenseman with 70 points in 79 games played. Excellent choice.
2019: Matt Boldy (LW/RW), Minnesota Wild
This is a hell of a pick: Boldy’s already established himself as a star winger at just 23. He has 169 points in 202 NHL games, and was nearly a point-per-game in the 2023-24 season.
From here on out, things get a little murkier as the players are still quite early in their NHL careers; they’ve all begun establishing themselves as everyday NHLers, and have plenty of room to grow. We’re also going to do away with the Bonus Pick, as several players drafted around this point have yet to make their NHL debuts.
2020: Anton Lundell (C), Florida Panthers
Part of what makes the Panthers so good is their depth, and Lundell holds down the 3C position as a sort of “Barkov-lite.” Lundell grades out exceptionally well by the fancy stats (56.77 CF%, 53.16 xG%, both at 5-on-5 per Natural Stat Trick) and is one of the Panthers’ better penalty killers. A glorified 3C may be a disappointment for such a high pick, but remember: Lundell is only 22 years old and has a lot of room to grow. These numbers so young are quite promising for his future if his offense improves.
2021: Cole Sillinger (C), Columbus Blue Jackets
It’s difficult to fully assess Sillinger due to how atrocious the Blue Jackets have been since he joined the NHL: there’s a lot of promise there, but it has yet to shine through.
2022: Denton Mateychuk (D), Columbus Blue Jackets
Oh look, another Columbus pick! Mateychuk hasn’t debuted in the NHL yet, so it’s especially difficult to judge whether it was “good,” but he put up 75 points in the WHL as a defenseman–that’s probably decent, right?
2023: Daniil But (LW), Arizona Coyotes
In his first full KHL season with Yaroslavl Lokomotiv, But put up 10 goals and 21 points in 55 games. Until he comes to the NHL, it’ll be difficult to truly assess him. But’s a bit of a hockeyman pick: he’s 6-foot-5 and over 200 pounds, but has impressive skill for a player that size.
Bonus Round: Zach Benson, 13th overall to the Buffalo Sabres
Hits & Misses
It’s difficult to judge exactly what makes a player a “hit” or a “miss,” but for someone taken in the first half of the first round, you generally want to get a top of the lineup guy. For our criteria, that’s going to be a player that was consistently a quality top-six forward or top-four defenseman during the prime of their career. There’s some wiggle room here on how you define “quality,” so let us know in the comments if you think any of these players are egregiously misplaced.
Hits (7): Marc Staal, Ryan McDonagh, Calvin de Haan, Marty Necas, Noah Dobson, Matt Boldy, Cam Fowler
Meh (2): Tyler Myers, Bryan Little
Misses (6): Ryan Murphy, Mikhail Girgorenko, Max Domi, Brendan Perlini, Denis Gurianov, Michael McLeod
Jury’s Out (4): Anton Lundell, Cole Sillinger, Denton Mateychuk, Daniil But
A few interesting trends stand out: five out of seven of the hits are defensemen, and all but one of the misses are forwards. However, of the defensemen that hit per our criteria, Dobson’s the only one with star potential–though McDonagh has had several years where he was very good, including this season with Nashville. Both forwards are turning into top-line players; Boldy’s already a star and things have really started clicking for Necas.
Of the 19 players observed, eight of them are defenseman–and six of them were taken in 2011 or earlier. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but it does look like GMs stopped using a high pick on high-floor/low-ceiling defensemen and started swinging for high-upside forwards; that strategy did not work out well for several teams.
All told, 12th overall picks could go either way as far as success in the NHL is concerned. It’s still too early to predict exactly how the lottery and draft day will play out, but there are a couple prospects to keep an eye on: left wing Cole Eiserman has been dropping down scouts’ draft boards despite going a goal-per-game with the USNTDP, and defenseman Carter Yakemchuk has been rising. Both players seem to have a cloud of “boom or bust” over them but, if either of them is available at 12 should that be the Flyers’ position, they’d be a solid choice.
Which way do you think the Flyers go: forward or defenseman? Do they take a swing on a boom or bust prospect? Let us know in the comments!
