Justin Bailey was acquired for Taylor Leier on January 17, 2019 and, at the time, it seemed like one of the most nothing trades in history. Fast forward to now and … yeah it still feels like that. Bailey most likely won’t be returning to the Flyers for the 2019-20 season, but if he does I believe he could be a valuable piece to the Phantoms and service as a competent 13th forward.
By The Numbers
Basic Stats
| Games Played | Goals | Assists | Points | PIM | Shots on Goal | Shooting Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Yeah, Justin Bailey really didn’t do a whole lot. To be fair though, it’s hardly his fault given the fact he only averaged a little under six minutes a game. He wasn’t given a real chance to contribute for this team hence the lack of production. I did like what I saw out of him at times this season and was surprised by his speed given his large stature.
5v5 Individual Stats
| Points/60 | Primary Points/60 | Shot Attempts/60 | Expected Goals/60 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.09 | 1.09 | 3.27 | 0.12 |
5v5 On-Ice Stats
| Score-Adjusted Corsi For % | SA-Corsi Relative | Corsi For % RelTM | Score Adjusted-Expected Goals For | SA-Expected Goals Relative | Goals For % | PDO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45.16 | 3.49 | -0.45 | 35.56 | -8.17 | 66.67 | 106.88 |
Small sample sizes skew these numbers completely, but even with that, Bailey wasn’t exactly driving play in his brief stint. Looking back on his small sample sizes with Buffalo in years prior, he didn’t drive play then either, so from the limited data we have on Bailey, I’d assume he’s just not that kind of player. It’s tough to really get a read on what this guy could be for the Flyers other than a big body on the fourth line. Another concern is his expected goals numbers which again, despite the small sample size, are very poor.
Three Burning Questions
Did this player live up to our expectations for this season?
Well, I can’t think of a single expectation I had for Justin Bailey, so I guess that doesn’t count. Bailey came in with zero anticipation from the fanbase and again although he looked like he had some nice tools, the results never came whether it be point production or analytics. So if I had to give a yes or no answer for this, I’d say no because the results failed to match the eye test.
But again, the dude played 11 games this year, I can’t be too harsh on him.
What do we expect from this player next season?
If he is indeed brought back, I’d expect him to be a top contributor with the Phantoms. He’s posted strong numbers with Rochester when he was in Buffalo’s system and he posted eight points in 17 games with the Phantoms this season. He’s been a 20 goal man in the AHL before and if the Flyers give him a full season down there I think it would be good for him. By the looks of it, Buffalo screwed up his development by continuing to give him brief chances in the NHL just to have him go back to the AHL.
He did get a 32 game stint in 2016-17, but let’s keep in mind he was only averaging about 10 and a half minutes a game and it was the Sabres. That Buffalo team had a second year Jack Eichel and Brian Gionta was still the captain, yes, that Brian Gionta.
What would we like to see this player improve on?
I guess the easy answer here is his play-driving. Again it’s hard to fault him on it but even with a small sample size his numbers simply aren’t good. If the Flyers do indeed bring him back next season and let him have a full or close to full season with the Phantoms, I’d be interested to see his fancy stats or in this case “phancy stats” via our very own Brad Keffer.
Data courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Corsica.hockey, and HockeyDB
