The Flyers may not be participating in the postseason this year after a precipitous collapse, but there is still quite a lot of good hockey to watch. The first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is always a blast, with tons of games to watch and a lot of matchups to look forward to–especially in the Western Conference, which hopefully a few of us will stay up late to enjoy.
As is tradition, several of us here at Broad Street Hockey take it upon ourselves to weigh in on the first round matchups: who we think will win, and in how many games. There are no prizes save pride, and if the Florida Panther’s run last year is proof of anything, it’s how little we apparently know about this game we love.
What are your predictions, dear readers? Who do you think is winning the Stanley Cup? Let us know in the comments!
Eastern Conference
New York Islanders vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Joe D: The Islanders are the team I loathe more than any other, so let’s go Canes. Unless the Islanders goaltending duo of Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlomov pop off (and Varlomov pretty much usurped the starter’s job late in the season), this should be a pretty clean sweep for Carolina: they landed the biggest forward at the deadline in Jake Guentzel, who’s been excellent for them, and Evgeny Kuznetsov has rediscovered some of what made him so good during the Capitals’ heyday. Add in a star-making season for Sebastian Aho, and the Canes are poised to make a deep playoff run this season (before getting swept in the conference final, again, for the memes). Carolina in five.
Jason M: The Islanders will be a tough out as they usually are as it often resembles football on ice. I would think Carolina’s skill level will be enough but if they don’t get average to above average goaltending it could go the distance. Canes in six.
Thomas: The only way the stinky Islanders are going to get a series win over the Hurricanes is if their goaltending is far superior. In every other category, the Hurricanes are so much better from centers, their wingers, the depth scorers, the special teams potential, and the blue line. Maybe I expect Ilya Sorokin to steal one game or Carolina to lose one because Freddy Andersen decided to treat tending the goal way too casually. Hurricanes in five.
Jacob: The Isles shouldn’t be here, and they won’t be for long. Carolina is a powerhouse who seems like they are finally ready to make a serious run. Ilya Sorokin better be doing pilates, he would need to be near perfect to get this done for New York. I doubt it happens. Hurricanes get the sweep, with a shot differential of infinity.
Cole: I really don’t see how the Isles win this series, aside from Ilya Sorokin having an insane run. It comes down to the fact that I struggle to see how a Bo Horvat led Islanders team can contend with the high-flying depth of Sebastian Aho, Jake Guentzel, and the Canes. Freddy Anderson could implode in a game or two, and I’d still comfortably take the Canes. I’ll go with Canes in 5, because Sorokin has at least one heist in him.
Kurt: Every time I think the Isles are going to do something, good or bad, the opposite usually happens. And something in the back of my mind tells me that they make this more of a series than people are letting on here – they’ve legitimately been a much-improved team since Roy took over. Which means they’re going to lose in five.
Kelly: I would imagine the Canes will have possession of the puck for approx 47 of the 60 minutes in each of the five games of this series, so yeah unless the Isles goaltending goes bonkers it’s Carolina in 5.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Boston Bruins
Joe D: It feels like it’s been a while since these two teams met in the playoffs (not since 2019!), but it’s fun that the meme lives–and the two seem fairly even. Toronto has some incredible firepower and star players, but a weak blue line and shaky goaltending; Boston has an excellent back end, goaltending tandem, and elite forward in David Pastrnak, but underwhelming center depth. We all thought the Bruins would fall off without Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci down the middle, but it turns out Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha have been perfectly acceptable replacements–can they continue to succeed in the playoffs? I think so: Bruins in six.
Jason M: The last six weeks in Toronto media circles was Auston Matthews’s chase for 70 goals. Perhaps this was to ignore the fact another first-round playoff collapse is in the offing. The Bruins defeated the Leafs in all four regular season games and their goaltending tandem is one of the best in the league. If Matthews decides to put the entire Leafs team on his back it could be a series, but given the past history with this core group I do not expect a long run. Bruins in five.
Thomas: This is going to be a gongshow no matter what. Some player will hit another player in a way that causes a national conversation regarding suspension length, or we will see some really stupid goal be called incorrectly and that causes one of the teams to lose. Despite a personal beef with the city of Toronto, they should be the better team. If the Bruins’ goaltending just even dips to average, the Leafs forwards will have a hay day. Auston Matthews should score a billion goals and the Leafs should show that winning a playoff round was no fluke, they can actually win maybe a couple. Leafs in six.
Jacob: It feels as if my entire adult life has revolved around this matchup of teams. If there was ever a time for the Leafs to shed their choking label, this would be it. The Bruins are still good, but the absences of Bergeron and Krejci will surely make it harder to defend the quartet of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares. But hockey is about feeling sometimes, and I just cannot shake the feeling that this Leafs team is begging for another collapse. Their defense pairs will once again head into the playoffs undecided, and with two fringe starters going up against two Bruins’ goaltenders that are well equipped to deal with Toronto’s snipers. If Boston can quiet the big guns at least slightly, I think they have the edge, and I have very little faith in the Maple Leafs to buck their trend at this point in the game. Bruins in 6, nothing ever changes.
Cole: It’s a matchup we’ve seen over and over again, but I can’t help but have this one circled. Leafs-Bruins always produces fireworks and drama, and the inevitable Leafs mishap that we all laugh about for years to come. Both of these teams have glaring weaknesses – the Bruins lack of high-end centers and the Leafs being unable to defend – and each team’s strengths really play off of each other well. The Ullmark-Swayman tandem in Boston feels like the swing of this series. If Boston goaltending can quiet Matthews and company, I like the odds for Boston. On the flipside, if this turns into a run-and-gun style, give me the Leafs. Having said that, I have a feeling the Bruins goaltending can’t contain the Leafs attack forever, and the Leafs edge this series out in 7.
Kurt: My prediction before this season was that the Leafs have a boring, somewhat uninspiring regular season that lulls people to sleep a bit and then they go on an actual run in the playoffs. That was a somewhat uninspiring regular season, right? Leafs in six.
Kelly: This will either be the most fun seven game series we’ll see these playoffs OR a five game letdown, and nothing in between. I’m amped for this one, and once again it is a crime that this series is happening in the first round. FIX YOUR SHIT, GARY. Leafs in 7.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Florida Panthers
Joe D: I’m really excited for this matchup; if we can’t have a Battle of Pennsylvania, a Battle of Florida will have to do. The quirk here is that the Flyers own Florida’s 1st-round pick, so an early Panthers exit helps Philadelphia…but man, the Panthers are fun. Their roster is stacked, and they made it to the Stanley Cup Final last year out of nowhere–this season, they’re Atlantic Division Champs. The Lightning floundered much of the year and it looked like this would be the first season they missed the playoffs but, since around the All-Star break, they put the league on notice and reminded everyone who they are. Nikita Kucherov’s first-ever 100-assist season by a winger (and 44 goals!) carried the team, and earned him the Art Ross as well; he should be a force in the playoffs. The big question mark for Tampa is Andrei Vasilevsky, who’s had a shaky season–and I don’t think he becomes “playoff Vasi” this year. I’m not making the same mistake last season and discounting Florida the whole way, either: Panthers in six.
Jason M: This should be the class of the first round in the Eastern Conference. Both teams do not like each other and both teams aren’t afraid to do whatever they can to knock off the other. Whether it gets to the vitriol of the Flames and Oilers in the ‘80s or Detroit and Colorado in the ‘90s is unclear. If Florida is able to wear down Tampa’s backend by finishing their checks each and every chance they get I would suspect Hedman and company to slowly but surely get worn down. But this should be a coin toss. Florida in seven.
Thomas: This might be the series of the first round. Tampa underperformed for the first half of the season but has bounced right back and are only a Wild Card team because of that. They are better than their record suggests and obviously have the roster to go deep in these playoffs. The Panthers are fun and still somewhat underrated – seriously, whenever I think about this team I want to say that they’re not as good as most but more and more members of their roster pop up and I go “oh yeah, that dude is good” several times. The one thing I feel confident about predicting is that this series will go seven. Which way after that? It’s a coin flip. I’ll go with the Lightning, sure. Lightning in seven.
Jacob: Florida is a wagon, a team built specifically for this time of year. Additionally, there are a lot of miles on the clock for Tampa by this point after multiple deep playoff runs, and that became very evident in their first round loss against the Leafs last season. While I think they’ll make this a series with some close games and no love lost, the future is now, Old Man. Florida in 5.
Cole: There’s lots of questions about the Lightning that are to be answered this summer, including the contract status of legendary goal scorer Steven Stamkos. As the Lightning reach the end of their run, the big guys are still showing no signs of slowing down, with Kucherov having an absolutely ridiculous season and Hedman remaining the force he is. I love the Panthers roster and their playing style, but I think they are poised for a let-down after last year’s surprise final run. The Lightning, when playoff Vasilevsky turns it on, have one more run in them. Give me Tampa in six.
Kurt: I know Tampa really started to round into form a bit in the latter half of the season, but I still can’t shake the feeling that they’re not quite Peak Tampa, and Florida just feels like Peak Florida. (Peak Florida. Sounds terrifying.) There aren’t any weaknesses on that team. Panthers in five.
Kelly: I’m with Kurt (the worst part about being the lazy one who takes forever to get your thoughts down for the roundtable is that everyone else has already had the same thoughts as you), Tampa feels off this season. They had to come down to earth eventually, I guess. Florida is fun as heck and I like watching them; Panthers in 6.
Washington Capitals vs. New York Rangers
Joe D: Yawn. I said earlier that the Islanders are my least favorite team…and the Capitals are number two. This year, the Caps are not a good team. Their negative goal differential is much talked about, sure, but they’re bad aside from that. Rangers, on the other hand, have an elite forward group, strong blue line, and Igor Shesterkin has been good after a lousy start–but their questionable 5-on-5 play is carried by special teams, which means the Caps have a chance if they don’t let the Rangers get on the power play. In the East, this is the series I’m least excited about, but I think the Rangers sweep the Caps in four.
Jason M: The Rangers have an almost lethal power play and a goalie who can steal games for them. The Capitals earned their right to the dance by, er, scoring into an empty net to win the wild card spot. While I hope it’s not quite as boring as the snail sprint that was the bubble series between the Canadiens and the Flyers a few years ago, Washington’s only hope is to let New York’s talented sleeping dogs lie. They might, but not for four games. Rangers in five.
Thomas: Fuck the Rags. Capitals in five.
Jacob: The Capitals are playing with house money, I don’t actually think they are good whatsoever, but I want an upset here and the Rangers really like to get in their own way. I think I’ll stick with New York for this one given their talent, but they’ll make it harder than it needs to be. Rangers in 7.
Cole: The Capitals are just plain bad, beyond even their horrid goal differential. Even more so than the Islanders with Sorokin, the Caps will need Charlie Lindgren to play so far above his head to win this series. They are consistently outchanced and outshot, and the Capitals high-end forwards just do not hold a candle to the Rangers. Add on top of that Igor Shesterkin, and I struggle to see how the Caps can get more than one game from the Rangers. Rangers take care of business in 5.
Kurt: The Capitals are perhaps the most fraudulent playoff team of my lifetime and the Rangers are actually legitimately very good this year, so I gotta say, how funny would it be for Charlie Lindgren to just Jaro Halak the Rangers for a series? Screw it. Caps in seven.
Kelly: I hate this series and I hate everyone playing in it. The Caps are a fraud and the Rangers are good; Rags in 5.
Western Conference
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Dallas Stars
Joe D: What a first round matchup! The Stars have been my pick to win the Stanley Cup since the start of the season, and I’ve seen very little to convince me otherwise–especially with Jake Oettinger heating up the way he has of late. Vegas did win the Cup last year, and fortified their roster in a big way at the deadline by adding Noah Hanifin and Tomas Hertl, so they’re no slouches–especially with Mark Stone (and others) returning from LTIR. Still, Stars all the way in six games.
Jason M: One of four heavyweight tilts in the West involves the defending Stanley Cup (and LTIR finagling) Champions against possibly the deepest team in the league in Dallas. The Stars didn’t do much wrong this season and they should be able to surgically pick the Golden Knights apart the longer this series goes. Dallas in six.
Thomas: God, I wish this series was going to take place in the Eastern time zone. I know I just said that Lightning/Panthers was going to be the series of the first round, but these are two teams who have experience going on deep runs facing off in the opening round. A matchup neither team certainly wanted to see, but it’s going to be a good one. I just like the Stars more than Vegas, and they can rely more on their fresh young talent for scoring depth. Stars in six.
Jacob: This is going to be a slugfest, with Mark Stone pulled out of his cryofreeze chamber, Vegas still has a group that is capable of going all the way. But these Stars are stacked, top to bottom, with the old guard of Seguin, Benn, and Pavelski infused with the likes of Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven to create a rock solid forward core. If Jake Oettinger can find some form, the Stars suddenly become a total nightmare for whoever crosses their path. Vegas can do anything, but this is a tall task I don’t think they’ll live up to, unless they have Nick Lidstrom on LTIR, too. Stars in 6.
Cole: I am so unbelievably excited to watch this series unfold. On paper, these might be the two best teams in the West and we are getting this matchup in the first round. The Stars are absolutely loaded, but the LTIR-fueled Golden Knights can go toe to toe in almost every way, even if the Stars are slightly deeper on the forward side. Jake Oettinger has been good lately, but I’m not entirely confident in the Stars goaltender after how shaky parts of this year were. The Stars might be slightly better, but I don’t think they can afford Oettinger to be off his game against this Knights team. Knights pull the upset and beat a cup-favorite in 7.
Kurt: Congrats to Dallas for winning the West! Your reward is a reigning Cup champion who has been storing good players on LTIR all year. Have fun with that. That said, they’re the better team, and while Vegas has had those bursts of really strong play this year, they’ve also had extended stretches where they’ve gone pretty cold. We’re probably not in for one of those, but what if we are? Dallas in five.
Kelly: Ahh yes, the Western Conference, which I definitely pay attention to all season long and about which I absolutely have an informed opinion. Big congrats to Mark Stone on his perfectly timed recovery! Whomst could have seen it coming. Anyway, this series is going to be a goddamned war. If Oettinger can keep it together, Stars in 7.
Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche
Joe D: This could be a wild series. The Avs have riches beyond compare in Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen, and Hart Trophy favorite Nathan MacKinnon; the Jets have a sound system and the best goalie in the league in Connor Hellebuyck. Just last week, the Jets absolutely dismantled the Avalanche 7-0, and that should bring some energy from Colorado to show they can’t be pushed around like that. Plus, the Avs have Flyers legend Sean Walker, and in the years the Avs have acquired a player from the Flyers, they won the Cup–the last player being Nicolas Aube-Kubel claimed off waivers in 2021-22. Although the Avs lost in the first round last season to the much-worse-than-the-Jets Seattle Kraken so…maybe we’ll all look silly in a couple weeks. Colorado in seven, regardless.
Jason M: Winnipeg looked to be near the echelon of teams in the league for a good chunk of the season. Then it looked like the wheels fell off. But as goaltender Connor Hellebuyck goes so go the Jets. The same can be said for Colorado and Nathan MacKinnon. MacKinnon is a different animal in the playoffs and should be able to overcome whatever obstacles the Jets and Hellebuyck throw his way. Look for Sean Walker to also play more of a role in leading the Avalanche over the Jets in six games.
Thomas: The Jets? The Jets? I don’t believe in them. Connor Hellebuyck is good for a couple steals, but the Avalanche are just better everywhere else. Avalanche in five.
Jacob: The Jets got a raw deal here, I like a lot of their pieces and they have the potential to be a really stubborn opponent, but at the end of the day, Nathan MacKinnon is terrifying, and the supporting class around him is good enough to match. I think the goaltending battle will make this series closer than it should be, but I like the Avs to get it done in 7. But this will be a tight one.
Cole: How is anyone supposed to believe in the Winnipeg Jets? Let alone against the powerhouse Avalanche? I like parts of the Winnipeg roster and Connor Hellebuyck is realllllly good, but we are talking about Nathan Mackinnon and Cale Makar here. They aren’t losing, at least in the first round to the Jets. Avs in 5.
Kurt: I’m not picking against the guy who should win the Hart Trophy. That’s right, baby. It’s Sean Walker. Avs in seven.
Kelly: It’s still insane to me that the Jets are actually good. How did that even happen? Weren’t they falling apart at the seams last year?? It can’t be real. We never bet against Nate Mack anyway, so Avs in 6 imo.
Nashville Predators vs. Vancouver Canucks
Joe D: The Canucks are really just Flyers West, and they have some exciting players: Quinn Hughes emphatically beat the “Tier 3” allegations, Elias Pettersson got that bag, and Thatcher Demko’s probably going to be the Vezina runner-up. The Predators, meanwhile, are in the midst of a retool under first-time general manager Barry Trotz, and ever since they missed a U2 concert in February have been lighting the league on fire. They’ve got an elite goalie in Juuse Saros, a career year from Filip Forsberg, and Roman Josi anchoring the defense. Of all this year’s first-round matchups, this feels like the one most primed for an upset–and I’m leaning into it: Predators in seven.
Jason M: Rick Tocchet should be in the running for the Jack Adams, whether he wins it should win it might be up for debate. Regardless, the Canucks might be one of those teams that saunter through the regular season only to look like deer in the headlights in the playoffs. One only has to remember how Boston fell flat on their face last season for that disappointment. The fact the Canucks also don’t have a lot of players with playoff experience whereas Nashville has a lot of that intangible might also play a role. I don’t expect the Canucks to do much this year. Nashville in six.
Thomas: I can’t believe Broad Street Hockey is full of doubters. The Canucks are the underdogs to cheer for, despite winning their division. They have been through hell and back and have some of the most electrifying players in the entire NHL. I believe in their magic. Canucks in six.
Jacob: The Predators had a really strong end to the season, but I think they’ll struggle to keep up with the Canucks high-powered offense at the end of the day. The Canucks are better, and they’ll show it. An unceremonious end to a nice story for Nashville, Canucks in 5.
Cole: The Canucks rode a PDO wave to a ridiculous start to the season, and the Canucks went all in at the deadline even as their PDO began to crash back to Earth. I really, really want the Canucks to make a legit run, but I have my doubts that they are going to be able to sufficiently drive play and cash in against Jusse Saros and the Roman Josi led Preds defense. Predators win a close series in 7.
Kurt: Man. I spent the whole year thinking I was going to be fading the Canucks in a first-round playoff series, and … now I’m here and I don’t think they’re getting enough credit? Demko’s health is something of a wild-card here but the Canucks have been doing devil magic (not literal Devil magic lol screw you Devils) all year and their stars should have the energy to be leaned on hard in the postseason. A true contrast of styles in this one, but I get the feeling I’m not going to regret picking the team with more power at the top. Canucks in five.
Kelly: I think I’ve consumed precisely zero seconds of Nashville Predators hockey this season (yes I know they played the Flyers, but I don’t recall any of it. Shut up), so I’m going with vibes on this one and the Canucks vibes are good. ‘Nucks in 5.
Los Angeles Kings vs. Edmonton Oilers
Joe D: Oh, goodie: another Kings/Oilers matchup in the first round. This kind of repetition is the only reason I’d want to change the playoff format, but the rivalry element might be fun. I expect a lot of goals this series because neither team has reliable goaltending: Cam Talbot was lights out to start the season, and has been not good-to-average ever since; Stuart Skinner was also awful to start the year, and then rebounded after the coaching change–though he’s had his shaky moments. If a high-scoring series is the outcome, you’ve gotta go with the team that has Connor McDavid and a stacked offense behind him. Oilers in six.
Jason M: Edmonton looked dead in the water to start the year but then made a coaching change and everything came up smelling like roses. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisatl got a bit more help this season with Zach Hyman doing what he did while the blue line seemed to make a lot of positive strides in Evan Bouchard’s excellent season. On paper the Oilers look to have patched up a few problems that eliminated them in previous seasons. The Kings might put up a fight but I don’t expect the Oilers to have much trouble with Los Angeles. Oilers in five.
Thomas: The Kings simply suck. They almost didn’t make it and had to depend on a coaching change just a couple months ago to push them up in a terrible conference. Just bad vibes all around. I don’t like the Oilers either, so if they collapse and Anze Kopitar holds their superstars to minimal production, that would be hilarious. It’s tempting, but no. Oilers in five, yeah.
Jacob: The Kings have a list of players I personally love (Arvidsson, Kempe, Byfield, Kopitar to name a few). But they don’t have Connor McDavid. LA should realistically be on even footing with the Oilers given the depth on their roster, but they just haven’t really clicked this year at all. Give me the Albertans in 5.
Cole: Easiest pick in the Western Conference for me. The speedy Oilers are going to be too much for the Kings, a team that’s had terrible vibes from start to finish this season. Cam Talbot has been good for the Kings, but I don’t know how confident I can be in Talbot and the Kings for a playoff series vs Edmonton. McDavid goes off, Draisaitl wreaks havoc, and the power-play is way too much for the Kings to contain. I feel insane for trusting the Oilers this much, but the Oilers sweep this series.
Kurt: Last year I picked the Kings to win this series. Have I learned my lesson? Sadly, I have. The Oilers are just a bit better than the Kings at what feels like everything – star power (OK, they’re a lot better there), depth, 5-on-5 play, special teams, goaltending. I still like this Kings team, but they’re slowly drifting into a territory where it feels like we’re going to keep asking when they can make the leap. Oilers in six.
Kelly: I don’t know why I want Connor McDavid to win things, but I kinda do. I don’t think this Kings team has it yet, so I think the star power takes over. I’ll give the Kings one; Oilers in five.
