Morning Observations is a feature where we break down the previous night’s game with an analytical eye.
#1: First period struggles have looked different each game
In all three games of the Flyers’ season-opening road trip, their performance in the first period has been lacking. Against the Kings, they were torched in terms of puck possession and shot attempt differential, even if they held Los Angeles off the scoreboard. In Arizona, there were a few key breakdowns that overshadowed generally-solid play by the Flyers. Last night, it was a bizarre hybrid of their two previous first periods.
There were lots of breakdowns, such as Streit’s poor read in the neutral zone on goal one, Provorov’s fall on goal two, and Neuvirth’s failure to recognize a pass on goal three. But the Flyers were actually hanging tough with the Blackhawks through the first 14 minutes of the period, the early first goal notwithstanding. Philadelphia’s forecheck was punishing the Chicago blueliners, resulting in extended offensive zone time and a number of icings. However, Philadelphia flatlined in terms of offensive pressure at the tail end of the period, and the high-powered Blackhawks took full advantage. Still, there were positive signs, which hinted that a comeback was possible if the Flyers could clean up the obvious mistakes..
#2: Chicago kept the Flyers to the outside too often
Through the first two periods of play, Philadelphia had its fair share of shots on goal (18) and total shot attempts at 5-on-5 (23). But goals were in short supply despite pressure from the Flyers. The reason? During the game’s first 40 minutes, Chicago did a fantastic job of keeping Philadelphia out of high-danger areas. The Blackhawks’ defense isn’t exactly the deepest anymore, so it made sense for the Flyers to attack them aggressively below the red line on the forecheck. But while Philadelphia forced turnovers and extended their zone time regularly, the extra opportunities weren’t turning into high-quality chances.
Some of this was due to strong defense by the Blackhawks forwards, who helped to cover the slot. However, it’s important to note that under Hakstol, the Flyers have been a dump-and-chase dominant team, and that strategy can make it harder to generate chances in the slot area, since they are usually not entering the zone with speed and possession to force the opposing defense to back off.
The easiest offensive zone strategy for a dump-and-chase team to execute is going low-to-high (forwards to d-men at the point), taking lots of shots from up top and creating traffic in the hopes of generating screens and high-danger chances off rebounds. Unfortunately, it’s not a particularly efficient strategy for creating scoring chances, and a big reason why Philadelphia had only one 5v5 scoring chance between the 14:00 minute mark of the first period and the conclusion of the second (per hockeystats.ca).
So how did the Flyers make their surge in the early third period? They shifted tactics. On Read’s second tally, Giroux got the puck into the slot from behind the net, a far more effective strategy in terms of increasing shooting percentage than low-to-high. Then, Couturier took full advantage of a controlled offensive zone entry to score in front on the rush. This isn’t to say that dump-and-chase can’t succeed as a primary tactic — the LA Kings have proven over the past five years that it can. But the Flyers need to mix up their strategies in order to keep teams off balance. For too long in this one, their attacking style was fairly one-dimensional.
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#3: Power play finally looked effective
One of the few negatives for Philadelphia in their season opening back-to-back was the underwhelming performance of the vaunted power play. The top unit in particular looked impotent, actually allowing one more goal than it scored over the weekend. They started slow in this one as well, struggling to enter the offensive zone and getting yanked off the ice 40 seconds into the PP by Hakstol on their first opportunity. Even against a statistically-awful Chicago penalty kill, it was looking like the start of a long night for Giroux and company.
The next two power plays made up for it, though. Jakub Voracek finally got things going, utilizing a strong move through the middle of the ice to create a rebound for Matt Read to bury. But it was the PP at the start of the third period that finally had the top unit looking like their old selves. They set up efficiently, and all of the members of the five-man crew were involved in puck movement. Again, it was Voracek who created the opportunity, dangling Duncan Keith before getting the puck to Wayne Simmonds in front, who did the dirty work to score.
The top unit finished with 5v4 Corsi For Per 60 rates over 140, which is the mark of stellar PP shot creation (the league-leading power play last year finished around 106). Chicago doesn’t ice a good penalty kill by any metrics, but it was still reassuring to see that the big guns can still dominate on the PP.
#4: Provorov with the big mistakes, Streit with lots of little ones
This will probably go down as Ivan Provorov’s “Welcome to the NHL” game, and rightfully so. His advanced stats (37.5% Corsi For) weren’t stellar, but it was the glaring eye-test errors that really stood out. The second and sixth Chicago goals were primarily on the rookie, as he fell down on the former and made a bad neutral zone pass into the skates of Sean Couturier to jumpstart a Blackhawks rush on the latter. Consistently solid board play and some slick breakout passes simply weren’t enough to make up for game-changing errors on this night.
But Provorov wasn’t alone in his struggles, as partner Mark Streit didn’t provide a ton of help throughout the night. On the first goal (which some criticized Provorov for falling down on too soon while covering the two-on-one), Streit was either doing a poor job as the wide-man in a 1-3-1 neutral zone forecheck, or was just caught napping. Either way, he failed to react to a streaking Chicago forward through the middle of the ice, forcing Provorov to deal with an odd-man rush on his own. While that play was his worst, Streit’s passing accuracy was sporadic all night, as was his defensive zone coverage.
In the end, Provorov is a teenager who is going to have occasional nights like this as he adjusts to the NHL. Streit, on the other hand, is supposed to be the stabilizing presence on the pairing, and too often he put his 19-year old partner in difficult situations. That can’t happen regularly.
#5: Neuvirth was straight up bad
Over the past year, Steve Mason has inexplicably become something of a punching bag, both for certain sections of the Flyers’ fanbase, and the league at large. As a result, when Michal Neuvirth was announced as the starter for last night’s game (following an opening night start against LA), the detractors likely began to hope that Neuvirth was in the process of stealing the top gig away from Mason. Neuvirth didn’t exactly make a strong case to do so.
It’s tough to blame Neuvirth on the breakaway goal caused by Provorov’s fall, but all three of the other goals were not good looks for the Czech netminder. He lost track of the puck on goals one and three, and just plain whiffed on a bad angle bouncing shot from Marian Hossa for goal four. That one got him pulled, and Steve Mason delivered an improved performance the rest of the way, even if he did give up two goals. This isn’t to say that Neuvirth is a bad goalie, or that Mason should start every game moving forward. But Neuvirth’s game last night was far worse than Mason’s supposedly “awful” performance on Saturday, and that deserves to be noted.
#6: Giroux erasing memories of bad opener
One of the key questions surrounding the Flyers at the start of the 2016-17 season was the status of captain Claude Giroux; specifically, whether he would have a bounceback season following hip surgery or continue a worrying statistical decline. His struggles against the Los Angeles Kings in the season opener did nothing to quell those fears, and even a great game against Arizona didn’t have all convinced, considering the lesser quality of competition.
Giroux made a far stronger case last night. Not only did he come away with three points (all assists), the team’s overall performance with Giroux on the ice was stellar. The captain’s 59.26% Corsi For percentage was second only to that of Dale Weise on the Flyers, and Giroux received almost five more minutes of ice time than Weise. His on-ice Expected Goals percentage was even better, slotting in at 64.82%. In addition, the power play was back firing on all cylinders, an engine that Giroux fuels as PP quarterback. The team might not have won the game, but its captain stood out for the second straight game despite facing a far tougher opponent.
#7: Raffl injury would really sting
Around the midway point of the second period, forward Michael Raffl skated off the ice and did not return. Later, the Flyers announced that he had suffered some sort of upper-body injury, though they were predictably vague both on the specifics of the injury and how it occurred. Regardless, an injury to Raffl would be a tough one to swallow, especially since Philadelphia is just about to get Brayden Schenn back from suspension.
The likely plan was to reunite Schenn with Giroux and Simmonds on the top line, and move Raffl to line three in order to provide an infusion of elite play-driving ability. But with Raffl out, Hakstol would be forced to roll with the same bottom-six mix as he has used so far. It’s not necessarily a terrible mix (if optimized properly) but adding a forward like Raffl would almost elevate one line’s 5v5 efficiency, and potentially allow for a weaker player (such as Chris VandeVelde) to exit the lineup. If Raffl misses any time, Hakstol will be forced to basically roll with what he has, which puts extra pressure on the Giroux and Couturier lines to provide the bulk of the scoring and play-driving at even strength.
#8: Rumors of Read’s death may have been greatly exaggerated
For the past two seasons, Matt Read’s scoring efficiency has dropped off a cliff. Once a reliable 20-goal scorer, Read’s wrist shot, speed and confidence have all been in noticeable decline in recent years. The 30-year old’s advanced metrics last season still showed some positive indicators, but it’s tough to justify a $3.625 million cap hit for a guy who drives play well if he rarely scores.
But maybe we were giving up on Matt Read’s offense too quickly. In three games, Read now has three goals, after lighting the lamp twice last night. The first goal was something of a lucky break, as Read pounced on a rebound from a Jakub Voracek shot. The second tally, however, was more promising, as Read crashed the net to receive a beautiful pass from Giroux before tucking it home. Read himself noted in his exit interviews that he had struggled to “get to the dirty areas” last season, and this was a classic example of Read addressing that shortcoming.
He did lose his man on the pivotal fifth goal for Chicago, but Read finished last night’s game with a solid 58.33% Corsi For percentage and likely recognized both that he can expect some puck luck this year, and that his efforts to battle to the front of the net more often will pay dividends on the scoresheet.
#9: Couturier line was missing for too long
The Flyers may have spent too much time playing dump-and-chase hockey last night, but for three of their four lines, that might be the best strategy. The current bottom-six includes no forwards (maybe Read) who can be reasonably expected to hold a controlled entry percentage around 50% — guys like Weise, Bellemare, Gordon and VandeVelde simply do not have the elite combination of speed and puck skills necessary to do so. As for the top line, Giroux certainly brings that skillset, but Simmonds and Raffl excel in winning puck battles in the corners, so it’s understandable that they might want to play a forecheck-centric game.
The Couturier line, on the other hand, is clearly the most skilled unit for the Flyers at 5v5 right now. Voracek and Travis Konecny are plus skaters on the wing, and Couturier has delivered controlled entry percentages over 50% for past two seasons. That needs to be the line that is creating rush chances and pushing opposing defenses back. However, for the vast majority of this game, they were invisible. No player on the line finished with a Corsi For over 37 percent, unacceptable for a trio with so much talent.
Too often, their passing and routes through the neutral zone were inefficient, resulting in the Blackhawks sending play right back the other way whenever the line tried to move forward. They did finally provide a high-skill goal in the third period, but the Flyers needed consistent pressure from that line last night, and they just didn’t get it.
#10: Lyubimov did not stand out, but neither did his competition
Dave Hakstol chose to scratch Nick Cousins for last night’s game, instead giving the start to rookie Roman Lyubimov, who had sat out the first two contests. Lyubimov received a little over 10 minutes of 5v5 ice time and neither made any obvious mistakes nor created any “jump-out-of-your-seat” standout plays. His Corsi For of 53.85% was fine, but his xG% of 27.44% implies that the shot attempts that he was on the ice for were skewed more towards Chicago from a quality standpoint.
Luckily for Lyubimov, Chris VandeVelde didn’t exactly thrill the fans, either. The chorus on social media following news of Lyubimov’s entry into the lineup was generally okay with the Russian getting a shot, but less satisfied that Cousins and not VandeVelde would be the one sitting down for him. Like Lyubimov, VandeVelde delivered an uninspiring game, but was worse by all the key metrics (28.57% Corsi For, 19.47% xG). If Cousins does come back in the lineup — a legitimate possibility considering the loss and Raffl’s uncertain status — he’ll probably replace one of the two fourth line wingers. VandeVelde’s status as a PK minutes eater might save him from the press box, but it’s tough to argue that he’s making a strong case at even strength.
