Morning Observations is a feature where we break down the previous night’s game with an analytical eye.
#1: Goaltending and conservative play ruled the preseason finale
Steve Mason and Tuukka Rask certainly look ready for the start of the regular season. While last night’s game wasn’t the most active contest, there were enough quality chances for a 3-2 decision in favor of either team. Instead, Mason and Rask were locked in, making it through 60 minutes of regulation without allowing even one goal between the two of them.
To be sure, neither team was playing a particularly aggressive style of offensive hockey. Both Philadelphia and Boston iced lineups close to what they’ll dress on opening night, so there was no real need for the players to consistently put themselves in harm’s way. Still, there were tough saves to be made — the goalies were just up to the tasks. Mason’s best was probably a point-blank stop of a Brad Marchand shot from the slot following an Ivan Provorov turnover, but there were three or four others falling just behind it on the difficulty scale.
Mason obviously got off to a poor start last year, with personal issues contributing to his underwhelming play. This season, Mason looks locked in, and as for the personal life, he just became a father so he’s likely on Cloud Nine. Not that it guarantees a stellar start, of course, but it certainly can’t hurt.
#2: Provorov and Konecny really should have locked down spots
By scratching Brayden Schenn, who is obviously a locked-in starter but will be inactive for the first three games of the season due to suspension, Dave Hakstol implicitly stated that last night’s game was a dress rehearsal for the season opener on Friday night. Of course, the two 19-year olds — Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny — were in the lineup, which seems to hint that they’ll both be sticking around and not returning to juniors. Even if their spots weren’t fully secure entering this game, they both showed enough to pass the organization’s final tests.
Konecny spent the vast majority of the contest on a line with Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek, and the unit was the Flyers’ most dangerous all night long. Couturier, Konecny and Voracek finished with Corsi For percentages at 5v5 of 61.54%, 60% and 56.25%, respectively, and were regularly spending entire shifts in the offensive zone. As for Provorov, he made one big mistake in the third period (the turnover that led to Mason’s big save) but otherwise delivered a quintessential Provorov game. I have a feeling it will become commonplace this year to think after a game, “Well, I guess Provorov was just okay,” and then look at the Corsi charts to see he finished 5-10 percentage points over the team-average. He just does so much of the little things right to drive possession, especially in terms of passing the puck. It will be a lot of fun to watch Provorov and Konecny over the first few months of their NHL career, and see how they grade out both via the eye test and advanced metrics.
#3: PP1 depth chart made obvious in preseason
One of the benefits of preseason hockey is that it allows fans a glimpse into the Plan Bs and Cs of the coaching staff when it comes to player roles. The team uses different lineups each night, but the general framework of certain situations tend to remain. For example, the Flyers’ top power play unit utilizes a 1-3-1 formation regardless of the specific personnel, with a distributor on the left half-boards (usually Giroux), a slot man most used for one-timers and set deflection plays (Schenn) and a net front presence (Simmonds). Even when one or more of these players are out of the lineup, the roles stay the same — the pieces just change.
Travis Konecny, assuming he makes the team, is clearly the fill-in for Giroux on the left side. Like Giroux, the rookie is a right-handed shot, and he also possesses plus vision and passing skills. Earlier in the preseason, Sean Couturier filled in for Wayne Simmonds in front of the net, so he’s looking like the possible #2 on the depth chart for that role, with only Dale Weise as potential competition. And last night, with Schenn sitting, Nick Cousins took up the slot role on PP1. Cousins is basically a lock to make the roster as well, so don’t be surprised if he rolls with the top unit for the first three games and then makes cameo appearances there this season in the event of Schenn penalties or injuries.
#4: Konecny – Couturier – Voracek line was dominant
If Travis Konecny is going to make the Flyers, a scoring line spot really is his best fit. He’s an electric offensive player, so the best course of action would be to put him with linemates who can help him to spend more time on the attack and less time chasing the puck in the defensive zone. Last night, he primarily played left wing with Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek, and the results were fantastic.
Konecny’s linemates are both high-end puck protectors, with Couturier especially dominant on the cycle and Voracek thriving in both the neutral and offensive zones. Konecny will almost certainly never be at their level in that area (he just doesn’t have the frame) but he provides the dynamic skillset that can take advantage of all that puck possession and create dangerous scoring chances. Hakstol will surely be trying lots of different combos to start the year so this trio may not last long together, but they sure looked good last night and seem to make sense as a unit on paper.
#5: Simmonds quietly had a strong preseason
I noted in my season review of Wayne Simmonds that over the past two seasons, he has progressed from his past of level of a middle-six even strength forward with elite power play skills to becoming a true top-sixer at 5v5. No longer is Simmonds a drag in terms of driving play at evens, and his scoring remains at a borderline first line level relative to the rest of the league. If this preseason is any indication, the Wayne Train might not be stopping there.
Simmonds did not receive the same preseason hype as Konecny or Provorov, or even Jakub Voracek, who has looked great coming off a disappointing season. But Simmonds scored four points in four games, and especially stood out in terms of his passing ability. He’s never been known as much of a distributor, preferring instead to crash the net and generate chances there. But in the preseason, Simmonds was regularly threading beautiful passes to linemates, both on the power play and at even strength. If the apparent improvement in his passing ability holds through to the regular season, Simmonds might not stop at 60 points this year.
#6: The “MacDonald had a great preseason” narrative isn’t really true
Over the past week, a narrative has been gaining steam regarding Andrew MacDonald and his performance during the preseason. Basically, the story is that MacDonald has been one of the best defensemen at Flyers’ training camp, if not the best one. The team and coaching staff has supported the narrative as well, pumping the 30-year old defenseman’s tires whenever they can. I have to admit that I’m not quite buying it.
To be fair to MacDonald, he did legitimately have a very strong start to camp. His performance in the first two preseason games was somewhere between solid and great, his play on the PK has been consistently impressive, and he stood out in the practices at Voorhees that I witnessed. But as the competition has gotten stronger, MacDonald’s on-ice play has regressed. Last night, his passing accuracy was sporadic, his gap control was predictably loose, and he even fell down once in the neutral zone to allow a Boston breakaway. Per Natural Stat Trick, the defenseman posted an overall -21.92% Corsi Relative to his teammates at 5v5 during his four preseason games. Now, advanced stats in preseason don’t mean a lot. But we’re being told that MacDonald has been especially fantastic in these games, so you’d think that would show up somewhere in the numbers. Unfortunately, it does not.
The truth is, Andrew MacDonald didn’t go down to the minors last season and “find his game.” He’s still basically the same player he was back in 2014-15 — one with an above-average overall set of tools who plays very passive in the neutral zone and struggles to string together consecutive positive plays, resulting in poor on-ice advanced metrics. Considering their injuries, the Flyers have little choice but to play him to start the year, but MacDonald hasn’t been “the best defenseman at camp.” He’s just been Andrew MacDonald.
#7: Can’t blame MacDonald for Gostisbehere looking off, though
Andrew MacDonald did not have a particularly strong game last night, but neither did his defensive partner, Shayne Gostisbehere. There’s a temptation to blame a “good” defenseman’s poor performance on the “bad” partner that he played alongside, and I’m often guilty of this. But to my eyes, Gostisbehere wasn’t particularly impressive either.
His passing was erratic (especially in comparison to fellow youngster Provorov) and he was burned on a few rush plays due to poor neutral zone positioning. His 44% Corsi For percentage may have been partially due to Andrew MacDonald, but Ghost wasn’t at his best, either. It’s nothing to be terribly concerned about, but obviously you’d prefer Gostisbehere to have ended the preseason on a high note.
#8: Boyd Gordon did not impress in preseason games
When the Flyers signed Boyd Gordon to a one-year deal on the first day of free agency, the move was justified by citing Gordon’s penalty killing prowess and his ability to take some of the defensive zone burden away from Claude Giroux, hopefully keeping him fresher to score goals. Now it’s understandable that an older player like Gordon would want to conserve energy in preseason, especially with the knowledge that he came to camp with a spot locked up. But even taking that factor into account, Boyd Gordon was basically invisible during the preseason.
The biggest problem has been skating speed — he’s just looked a step behind in all three zones, especially in his own end. Creating puck battles is a key skill in being effective defensively, and Gordon always seems to either be trailing the puck carrier or coming up short in a puck race. Again, this could be a case of him conserving energy in meaningless games as a veteran. But considering the fact that he scored just four points in 65 games last year, there’s a legitimate fear that he might not be able to keep up with the NHL pace anymore. Hopefully he proves those concerns unfounded.
#9: Gudas with another questionable hit
With the Flyers in a very tight spot right now from a cap and roster standpoint, Ron Hextall probably spent the whole game last night crossing his fingers that no one would get injured. It appears the team survived unscathed, but Hextall now has a new worry – the status of Radko Gudas.
In the third period, Gudas checked Bruins center Austin Czarnik into the boards, and appeared to make contact with Czarnik’s head with his shoulder. The hit also was a bit late, coming after Gudas watched Czarnik pass the puck. There’s certainly a chance that Gudas could receive supplemental discipline, even if this hit didn’t seem much worse than those suffered by Couturier (via Zac Rinaldo) and Giroux (by P.K. Subban) last year, and they did not result in punishments. The Department of Player Safety is not supposed to account for prior history when judging whether a hit is worthy of punishment, as that historically has only affected the length of a suspension after a hit has already been deemed discipline-worthy. But it’s easy to imagine DoPS remembering that Gudas has “gotten away” with a number of other questionable hits during this calendar year, and not giving him the benefit of the doubt this time.
If Gudas is disciplined, it could be a lengthy suspension, considering his past history and the fact that Czarnik was injured on the play (both impact the severity of punishment). That puts the Flyers in a position where they would need to hope that Brandon Manning is healthy enough to play on Friday night, or else they may have to recall a defenseman like T.J. Brennan or Sam Morin for the season-opener. That would necessitate a forward be sent down, likely Jordan Weal (who would have to clear waivers) as long as he’s still here on Tuesday. It would just be another wrinkle thrown into an already-complex roster situation for the Flyers.
#10: General thoughts
With the almost certain additions of Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny to the roster, the Flyers on paper look like a much better team than the 2015-16 version, so in that regard, training camp was a success. Unfortunately, the injuries from these past few weeks prevent us from seeing the true ceiling of the 2016-17 Philadelphia Flyers for at least a month. The loss of Michael Del Zotto is the big one, as it forces them to dress both Nick Schultz and Andrew MacDonald, a less-than-attractive proposition and one that the team looked poised to avoid after the emergence of Provorov in camp. As a result, it unfortunately wouldn’t be surprising if Philadelphia gets off to another slow start, accounting both for the roster not being at full strength and a relatively difficult early-season slate.
