Morning Observations is a feature where we break down the previous night’s game with an analytical eye.
- According to every even strength shot metric, the Flyers dominated this game. They doubled up Arizona in shots on goal (35-17), and led in both score-adjusted Fenwick (63.86%) and score-adjusted Corsi (58.29%). The majority of the game was played in the Coyotes‘ end, particularly over the final 40 minutes. So why was Philadelphia unable to come away with a victory? The first reason was Arizona goalie Mike Smith, who was clearly the player of the game. Smith put on a clinic, smothering rebounds and breaking down the Flyers’ forecheck via his stellar puck playing ability. But the Flyers struggled in another key area — creating scoring chances. While they had little trouble sustaining extended cycles in the offensive zone, the Flyers generated only five high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5. Smith’s rebound control definitely played a role, as Philadelphia had very few second-chance opportunities in front of the net and in the slot. But credit the Coyotes as well. They kept the Flyers from battling their way into the slot, and used active sticks in the neutral zone to limit rush chances.
- The second period was when this game was lost, as Arizona scored two goals to build a lead that they would never relinquish. But the truly frustrating part about the period was that the Flyers carried play throughout, only to see two mistakes become goals against. Philadelphia outshot the Coyotes 16 to 7 in the middle stanza, and allowed Arizona only nine shot attempts at even strength. They took two unnecessary penalties, however, and the second of them (a trip by Ryan White in the offensive zone) resulted in a Shane Doan power play goal. The Flyers kept coming, however, only to give up a particularly fluky goal with less than one second left in the period, a goal which proved to be the game-winner. Early in the season, it would be easier to write the second period (and the game as a whole) off as a “good process, bad result” contest, but Philadelphia needs every win it can get right now. Moral victories simply won’t cut it.
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- Since Detroit lost as well yesterday, the Flyers’ loss wasn’t particularly devastating to the team’s playoff hopes. A long-term injury to Claude Giroux, on the other hand, would cut down on Philadelphia’s postseason chances dramatically. The Flyers’ top line center was pushed into the boards head-first by Coyotes forward Martin Hanzal, and was prone on the ice for at least a minute before skating off under his own power. After the game, the media was given full access to Giroux and he claimed to feel fine, but concussion symptoms can appear days after the initial trauma, so he’s not out of the woods yet. Most concerning is that Giroux does have a concussion history, and he most likely suffered his last one a little over a month ago courtesy of P.K. Subban. The fact that he seemed fine after the game is definitely a good sign, but the real test will be how he feels on Monday prior to the morning skate.
- This was a game of escalating emotions, and the two teams shared the blame for the ugliness of the final two minutes. In addition to Giroux’s possible concussion, Arizona actually lost two players to fairly-serious looking injuries — captain Shane Doan and Michael Stone. Both injuries occurred on plays that looked questionable on replay. Gudas’ initial hit on Doan was fine, but he then drove Doan’s upper body into the boards as the Coyotes’ forward was sliding on the ice. The Stone injury was a bit more subtle, but it appeared that Michael Raffl hooked his leg around Stone’s legs as Raffl was falling to the ice. Both incidents may have been unintentional (considering Gudas’ history, I’m less willing to give him the benefit of the doubt than I am Raffl), but it’s easy to see why Arizona players could have been incensed. Brayden Schenn and Connor Murphy also went at it earlier in the contest with dueling big hits on each other. The atmosphere doesn’t excuse the hit on Giroux, which was undeniably unnecessary, but bad things often happen in emotionally-charged games. This battle between Philadelphia and Arizona surprisingly qualified.
- Ever since Jakub Voracek moved up in the lineup to play with Sean Couturier and Michael Raffl, it seemed inevitable that three of the team’s best puck possession forwards would become a cycling dynamo of a line. Last night, it finally happened. Their relative possession numbers came back to earth after a few bad shifts in the third period, but all three members of the line still finished with Corsi For percentages over 59%. Like the majority of the team, the Couturier line struggled to turn all of that zone time into quality chances, but all three forwards were nearly impossible to knock off the puck. Raffl in particular was a standout, as he continued his stellar recent stretch of play.
- The Michael Stone tally that ended up being the game-winning goal illuminated a legitimate issue with the rules protecting goalies. Seconds before the goal, Brandon Manning knocked Shane Doan into Mason, dislodging his goalie mask. Since the contact did not occur at the same time as the shot and Mason had time to get back into position, the goal was deemed legal. But as Mason stated after the game, his mask had been knocked ajar and he could not see anything out of it. He tried to get the officials’ attention to stop play, but the Coyotes scored before he succeeded. Some argued that Mason could have thrown off his mask to try and force a stoppage, but with the puck active in the offensive zone, that would have been pretty dangerous. Still, it was obvious that the Philadelphia goalie was obstructed in his attempts to make a save due to the equipment issue. I’m not sure if there is a good solution to this, because giving goalies more freedom to essentially call “time-out” risks them exploiting the rule. At the same time, it didn’t seem fair that Arizona scored the game-winning goal against a netminder who was basically blind.
- The possession statistics may not have shown it, but Shayne Gostisbehere was an absolute monster in terms of defense in the middle of the ice last night. There’s been some conjecture on social media recently than the more passive neutral zone play of Andrew MacDonald may rub off on the young Gostisbehere, but that certainly didn’t seem to be the case against Arizona. Ghost was constantly getting in lanes, cutting off passes, and then immediately transitioning the puck back to offense. As a result, he had more than a few controlled zone entries of his own, befitting his aggressive playing style. He picked up a primary assist on Sean Couturier’s late goal, which was a nice reward for a strong game from the rookie.
- While he’ll rightfully receive some criticism for the possibly-dirty hit on Shane Doan, Radko Gudas posted yet another strong even strength possession performance, finishing with a game-high 77.78% Corsi For percentage. Gudas has delivered a monster March for the Flyers in terms of driving play, as the team has generated 56% of all 5-on-5 shot attempts with Gudas on the ice and merely 49.1% of them when Gudas is on the bench. It’s understandable why the burly Czech defenseman has a reputation around the league as a player with a lack of disregard for the well-being of opponents, considering his history. I’m sure even the Flyers would prefer he tone it down at times, both to avoid penalties and to eliminate the possibility of reprisals to their stars. But Gudas can’t be called “just a goon,” as he’s truly been one of Philadelphia’s most effective defensemen all season by advanced metrics. If he could remove the questionable hits from his repertoire, league observers would be more likely to take note of that fact.
- To my eyes, the best player on the ice for the Coyotes last night was Anthony Duclair, who created three high-danger scoring chances and was flying in the offensive zone all game. The Flyers had an up-close look at the young forward last season, when he was a member of the rival New York Rangers. Shipped to Arizona in the Keith Yandle trade, Duclair leads the Coyotes with a +5.5% Corsi Relative to his teammates, and scored his 40th point of his rookie year last night. While Yandle is undeniably a strong defenseman for the Rangers, there is a very good chance that New York will not have the cap space necessary to re-sign the pending unrestricted free agent in the offseason. Duclair, on the other hand, looks primed to be an impact forward for the Coyotes for years to come. Philadelphia has to be glad that Duclair isn’t just out of their division, but out of the Eastern Conference entirely.
- With his late goal, Sean Couturier now has ten points in his last eleven games, becoming a major contributor on the scoresheet for the Flyers during their late push towards the playoffs. Interestingly enough, Couturier’s possession metrics during the 11-game stretch have merely been decent (50.9% Corsi For). He’s making up the gap through strong production on the power play (one goal, three assists), which has long been a major weakness in his game. The first power play unit continues to struggle to light the lamp, but the second unit has picked up the slack in recent games, and Couturier is a big part of that. He simply looks more composed along the boards with the second unit, giving the rest of the unit stability on the left side so that they can move around in the offensive zone and create shooting and passing lanes. In the past, penalty killers have pressured Couturier into turnovers on the power play, but over the past month, they’ve given him more respect and more time and space. The result has been a unit that may lack in high-end talent, but can still put regular pressure on opposing goaltenders.
