Coyotes 4, Flyers 3: 10 things we learned from the first overtime loss of the year

Morning Observations is a feature where we break down the previous night’s game with an analytical eye.

#1: Even strength play not the issue in this one

Generally, when we evaluate the overall quality of a hockey team, we look first and foremost at their performance at even strength. That’s not to say that the other situations aren’t important, but the vast majority of NHL games are played at 5v5, so the teams who are most efficient at outshooting and outscoring their opponents during those stretches will probably win a fair amount.

The Flyers were unable to earn a win last night, but they still largely carried the play at 5-on-5. Their score-adjusted Corsi For on the night was 56.76%, and they exceeded 50% in each of the game’s periods. Philadelphia won the shot quality battle as well, leading in 5v5 Expected Goals, 2.31 to 1.70.

So how did they end up losing? Frankly, it was a bit of a fluky result. Arizona’s first goal came off a faceoff at the start of the Coyotes’ third power play of the game’s opening ten minutes, and easily could have been waved off due to goaltender interference. Goal #3 was caused by a rare power play miscue from Shayne Gostisbehere, who carried the puck into traffic in the neutral zone and then turned it over, leading to a breakaway. And the Coyotes’ game-winner in overtime came on a delayed penalty, just seconds after the officials ignored an obvious holding-the-stick infraction committed against Jakub Voracek. That’s three goals that weren’t exactly the result of a process that an opponent can expect to repeat. On the whole, the Flyers may have lost, but they looked the superior hockey team.

#2: Strong start to the season

Obviously, it’s always tough to swallow an overtime loss, especially when it comes to a team not expected to make the playoffs, like the Coyotes. But don’t lose sight of the fact that three-points-in-four-games is still an impressive start to the season, especially considering the circumstances. The Flyers faced a rare season-opening west coast road trip, first battling a strong Kings club who was already in their second game of the year, and then the very next night faced an Arizona club just beginning their own season. Back-to-backs are always tough, and seemingly tougher considering the time difference and the fact that their second night opponent obviously wasn’t dealing with fatigue.

Especially encouraging is how the Flyers have earned their 1-0-1 record. In both games, Philadelphia won the 5v5 battle, and currently sit with a strong 55.14% score-adjusted 5v5 Corsi (7th in the league) and 57.56% in 5v5 Expected Goals For percentage (also 7th). There are other promising signs as well. The penalty kill looks far more aggressive this year, even if the shorthanded units did allow their first goal of the season last night. Claude Giroux looked healthy and impactful, lessening concerns that he might be on the verge of a steep statistical dropoff. And finally, youngsters Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny have been two of the most effective players on the team so far.

If the Flyers are unable to retain their 5v5 gains from the latter part of 2015-16, or if the penalty kill continues to flounder, or if Giroux struggles like he did late last year, or if the kids aren’t as good as fans hoped — all of these scenarios have the potential to sink the Flyers’ season. Instead, everything is coming up favorable thus far. And don’t forget — the Flyers are also playing without three key players in Brayden Schenn, Michael Del Zotto, and Radko Gudas. Add them to an already-humming machine, and this season could turn from good to great very quickly.

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#3: A return to normalcy

Friday night was a classic #FlyersAfterDark game, in that many of the key contributors for Philadelphia were role players and not the ones you’d expect to be carrying the team on opening night. Sure, the Couturier line was dominant. But few could have predicted that Boyd Gordon would score the Flyers’ first goal of the season, or that Brandon Manning would be one of the most impactful defensemen on the night. In addition, the first line centered by Claude Giroux was basically silent, leaving the scoring duties up to the Couturier unit and the bottom-six.

Against the Coyotes, however, the “best” players on the Flyers played like it, while the guys at the bottom of the depth chart showed why they fill limited roles. A quick glance at the Corsi charts tells us that Streit, Giroux, Provorov, Raffl, Simmonds, Voracek, Gostisbehere, Konecny, Couturier and Read were the Philadelphia players who finished above 50 percent, while the rest of the lineup fell in the red. With the exceptions of Streit and Read, the above list is a pretty comprehensive look at who most would describe as the high-end players on the roster.

On the other hand, the depth players struggled a bit. Manning had some positive moments, but he also gifted the Coyotes the puck on a number of occasions. Nick Schultz’s bad pinch directly resulted in Arizona’s second goal of the night, and Andrew MacDonald’s decision-making in all three zones was inconsistent at best. The bottom-six (aside from Read) also delivered little in the way of impactful play. None of this should come as a major shock — after all, there’s a reason why Manning, Schultz and MacDonald are bottom-pair defensemen when all are healthy, why third and fourth liners belong in that role, and why the Flyers’ best players generally have higher cap hits than the depth guys. Last night was just a reminder of that fact.

#4: The Giroux line is back

Against the Kings, Claude Giroux’s unit struggled to push play in the right direction while primarily facing Los Angeles’ top pairing of Doughty and Muzzin and their top line center by Anze Kopitar. The Coyotes do not possess that degree of high-end talent, and the Flyers’ top line took full advantage.

By the numbers, the top line was Philadelphia most effective unit all game long. Not only did they add two even strength goals courtesy of Wayne Simmonds and Michael Raffl, they spent the bulk of the contest on the attack even when not putting the puck in the net. All three forwards finished with a 66.67% Corsi For percentage, and were even more impressive by the quality-adjusted xG, which placed them all over 75 percent. The line’s performance should have extinguished any lingering worries that the Kings game was a harbinger of things to come, even if their strong play didn’t result in a victory for the Flyers this time.

#5: Giroux looked far more like the Claude Giroux of old

One of my big concerns going into the 2016-17 season was the effectiveness of captain and superstar Claude Giroux. More than any other player, he’s the engine that makes this team go, and as a result, he’s justifiably paid like an elite forward in the NHL. However, as I noted in the offseason, Giroux’s underlying metrics noticeably declined last season, continuing a trend that began back in 2014-15. His play especially dropped off in the final few months of 2015-16, culminating in a playoff series that saw Giroux and his linemates get taken to the cleaners by Nicklas Backstrom and company.

The captain did have a solid excuse. A painful hip ailment was apparently hindering him, and Giroux underwent surgery in the offseason to correct the issue. As a result, all eyes were on the Flyers’ star this weekend to see which Claude Giroux would show up — the Hart Trophy contender, or the plodding bottom-sixer from the playoffs. While it was just one game, on Friday he worryingly looked more like the latter. Last night, however, we saw the Giroux of old. His best moment came on Wayne Simmonds’ goal, as he stormed through the neutral zone and past multiple Coyotes defenders before letting a dangerous shot rip from the slot, creating a rebound that Simmonds would promptly deposit past Mike Smith.

The numbers backed up the eyes as well — after an awful 26.25% Expected Goals percentage at 5v5 versus the Kings, Giroux pasted the Coyotes to the tune of 81.93% last night. The captain’s skating had the obvious burst that it lacked in March and April of last year, and he showed a willingness to attack the high-danger areas on the cycle rather than limit himself to the perimeter. The Flyers will certainly hope that this is the Claude Giroux that shows up for the majority of their games this season, and if he does, a playoff berth is a near-certainty.

#6: Provorov lived up to his pedigree

In his NHL regular season debut, Ivan Provorov started slow on Friday. In the first period, he especially struggled to deal with the vaunted Los Angeles forecheck, resulting in a few ugly turnovers. While Provorov improved as the game progressed, to the point that he picked up a primary assist and pushed his advanced metrics into the black by night’s end, it wasn’t the dominant performance that some fans expected. Against the Coyotes, however, Provorov looked far more like the future top-pair defenseman that fans so desperately want him to become, particularly at 5v5.

A far cry from his issues in the first period on Friday, Provorov was at his best last night in the defensive zone. Rush after rush began quietly with perfect Provorov passes, delivered in stride and right on the tape to a speeding forward. His play without the puck was nearly as impressive, as he used leverage and positioning to win battles behind the net and prevent Arizona from ever executing their cycle game. Provorov’s 66.67% Corsi For percentage showcases the degree of efficiency in his game — the Coyotes weren’t creating much in the way of offense with the 19-year old on the ice. He did appear to sag a bit at the end of regulation, which may have contributed to Dave Hakstol’s decision to sit him for the overtime. But that’s to be expected for a young player at the tail end of his first NHL back-to-back. On the whole, Provorov was great.

#7: Matt Read had a statement game

Read may be the biggest beneficiary of the rash of injuries and suspensions that the Flyers are dealing with in the early season. After an underwhelming 2015-16 season, Read didn’t exactly turn heads in camp and has begun the season as a fourth line winger, at the bottom of the team’s depth chart. Considering Chris VandeVelde’s heavy penalty killing responsibilities, it seemed like Read would be Hakstol’s most likely choice to be scratched once Brayden Schenn returns from his suspension. That was before last night, however.

The “same old Matt Read” chorus was swirling on social media after Read was unable to capitalize early in the game after receiving a perfect pass from Voracek. But that play should have instead been a hint that Read was due — after all, the chance occurred right in the “dirty area” that Read himself noted in his exit interviews that he had unconsciously avoided last season. Even if he didn’t finish that opportunity, the process was sound.

He proved it early in the third period, taking a pass from Travis Konecny in the neutral zone and outmuscling rookie Jakob Chychrun to manufacture a breakaway for himself, before fooling Smith with a slick move to tie the game. Read was the only bottom-sixer to finish with a Corsi over 50% last night, and the eyes matched the numbers. He was one of the team’s most effective forwards, and this performance really should have been enough to jump him over VandeVelde on the forward depth chart, keeping him out of the press box.

#8: Slight tweak to PK neutral zone forecheck so far

Through the first two games, it’s been obvious that the Flyers made tactical adjustments to their penalty kill this season. Whereas last season, Philadelphia employed active defensive zone pressure just 27.8% of the time, this year it seems like they’re utilizing a Czech Press at every opportunity. The result has been less time for power play forwards to survey the offensive zone and make decisions.

But there have been changes to the team’s neutral zone formations as well. Philadelphia has primarily used a “Passive” 1-3 forecheck in the neutral zone this year, with one forward (F1) ahead of the other penalty killers in the center of the ice, while the remaining three line up across the ice, parallel to the red and blue lines. In 2015-16, their version of the 1-3 had the center PKer (usually F2) in the line be granted the freedom to attack the puck carrier if the opportunity presented itself, while the flankers hung a bit further back, ready to retrieve dump-ins.

This year, however, the penalty killer in the center (F2) has hung back, while the flankers (often defensemen) are the more aggressive ones. So far, the tweak has been effective in forcing a number of uncontrolled entries, as power plays seem insistent upon entering the offensive zone along the boards, at least thus far. It will be interesting to see if the tactic (and its effectiveness) holds as the year progresses.

#9: Bellemare as 3C experiment not quite working

Pierre-Edouard Bellemare was praised by many for his eye-opening play in the World Cup of Hockey with Team Europe, and the Flyers’ coaching staff apparently concurred with that assessment. To start the year, Bellemare was granted the role of third line center, despite almost exclusively functioning as 4C in his NHL career up to this point. The line did a decent job of creating chances against the Kings, but last night they ran into a regular issue — repeated struggles to get the puck out of the defensive zone. All three forwards on the line finished with Corsi For percentages below 43 percent, bringing up the rear on the Flyers’ charts.

Aside from the defensemen, the center on a line is most responsible for moving play out of the defensive zone. He sits low in the zone, providing an easy outlet for his blueliners who are under forechecking pressure. Bellemare is not awful at this job, but it’s a bit confusing why he would be used in this role when Nick Cousins is far superior at it and is instead playing wing on that same line. Cousins was even more effective at generating zone exits last season than Claude Giroux or Sean Couturier, so not using him in the center role seems a waste of his talents. Watching the Bellemare line be repeatedly pinned in the defensive zone last night, it was impossible not to wonder how much longer Hakstol will keep Bellemare at 3C, especially when there’s a better option right next to him.

#10: Ultra-aggressive defense still a hallmark of Hakstol’s tactics

As the Flyers’ play improved in the final months of 2015-16, the mantra from the players was that they finally had a full handle on the ins-and-outs of Dave Hakstol’s system. A key aspect of Hakstol’s tactics involves activating his defensemen early and often in the neutral and offensive zones. Often, you’ll see a Philadelphia defenseman move below the goal line on the cycle, as he gets replaced up top by a forward. This helps to extend cycles and keep opponents off balance, even if it does add some risk by potentially forcing a forward to defend against a quick transition rush.

In addition, defensemen have the freedom to attempt aggressive reads in the neutral zone, cutting off passes or skating routes with the goal of quickly generating another offensive zone entry. Both strategies show no signs of disappearing in Year 2 of the Hakstol era. It did burn them once last night, as Nick Schultz took himself out of the play on an aggressive neutral zone pinch that caused a Jakob Chychrun rush and a Martin Hanzal goal. But the active blueliners also have been a big reason why the Flyers have won the possession battle in both games this year. Expect the tactics to only become more effective when players like Michael Del Zotto and Radko Gudas return to upgrade the defense, pushing two of Schultz, Andrew MacDonald and Brandon Manning out of the lineup.