Back home for Round 2! What do the hockey gods have planned for tonight? Here are the numbers:
Odds
Puck Lines
- Pittsburgh -1.5 (+185)
- Philadelphia +1.5 (-225)
Over/Under
- Over 6.5 (+102)
- Under 6.5 (-122)
Money Line
- Pittsburgh (-130)
- Philadelphia (+110)
Miscellaneous
- 60 Minute Line – Philadelphia (+160)
- 60 Minute Line – Pittsburgh (+115)
- Joel Farabee Anytime Goalscorer (+330)
- Sean Walker Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-160)
Predictions
DraftKings Sportsbook seems to suggest that this one could go to overtime. That would indeed make both games of this home-and-home series tight contests. Though the Penguins are -130 Money Line favorites, Pittsburgh’s odds take a step back in the 60 Minute Line, coming in at +115. No one would deny that the Penguins are the better team on paper. If you have any doubt, just take a look at each team’s six forwards.
However, the Penguins haven’t looked all that sharp to start the season. They currently sit in sixth place in the Metropolitan Division, meaning that they have a worse record than the Flyers. To be fair, the Penguins are only half a game back from the Flyers with an opportunity to even up the two teams’ records with a win tonight, but that’s beside the point. With their roster, the Penguins should be battling with the Rangers and/or the Hurricanes for the top spot in the division.
So what’s on the docket tonight? We have an overperforming Flyers team facing off against an underperforming Penguins team. The matchup will take place at the Wells Fargo Center where, contrary to all available logic, the Flyers have struggled to accumulate wins. While the Flyers are 7-4-1 on the road, they are only 5-6-1 at home–a small sample size, but an unusual trend to keep an eye on as the season progresses. Perhaps the Flyers’ biggest asset right now is their ability to limit time spent in their own defensive zone, whether at even strength or on the penalty kill. It is truly wild to think that the Flyers currently have the eighth best PK in the league (84.8%).
With all of that said, let’s get to the good stuff. Here are all of the BSH picks for our Monday night bout:
Picks
Under 6.5 (-122)
- In our opinion, this is a fairly reliable bet from the perspective of the Flyers’ defensive strength, but it is an incredibly risky bet from the perspective of the Penguins’ offensive strength. In the last ten games, the Penguins have had low-scoring affairs on only two occasions–once against the New York Rangers and once against the Vegas Golden Knights. Those games, which produced one goal and three goals, respectively, might not be entirely reflective of tonight’s contest. The Rangers and the Golden Knights are much more skilled than the Flyers at the back end. With that said, the Penguins’ other eight games in the same stretch, while producing more goals, rarely exceed tonight’s 6.5 mark. The Under 6.5 would have a record of 7-3. We know that these teams hit the Over on Saturday, but we don’t think it happens tonight.
Sean Walker Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (-160)
- Looking at both of tonight’s rosters, several names stand out. Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang, Travis Konecny, Joel Farabee, Sean Couturier, Cam Atkinson. Not included in this list (or any list) is Sean Walker. The Canadian “defenceman” has 12 shots in the last five games, and DraftKings is presenting us -160 odds that he exceeds two shots tonight. We think it’s a winner.
BSH Pick Record
11-14
Best of luck, and check back in on Thursday when the Flyers face the Arizona Coyotes!
